On January 14, 2025, at the “6th Automotive New supply chain Conference” hosted by Galaxy Automotive, CEO Zhou Xiaoying pointed out that the competitiveness of self-branded models is constantly improving, mainly reflected in good product technology configuration, novel appearance, as well as pricing advantages, which can very much win the favor of the market and consumers.
According to Gaishi Automotive Research Institute, China’s passenger car market will remain at about 30 million units in 2030, and the market share of independent brands is expected to be close to more than 80 percent.
Zhou Xiaoying said: “our forecast for 2030 is still a bit conservative.
We may be able to achieve this goal in three years, depending on whether there are other factors to better balance this point in the next few years.
” Zhou Xiaoying, CEO of Galaxy Automobile, the following is the content of the speech: the basic situation of China’s passenger car market.
In 2024, China’s passenger car market handed in a very good report card.
According to the China Automobile Association, passenger car sales reached 27.
563 million units this year, an increase of 5.
8% over the same period last year, and sales in new energy and export markets maintained very rapid growth.
People have been paying close attention to the share of Chinese independent brands, and so have foreign enterprises.
When we look at the products, objectively speaking, the products provided by Chinese independent brands are not only cheap, we talk about the ratio of performance to price, and their performance is the first.
Of course, they also give enough price attraction, including very rich configurations.
The market as a whole has undoubtedly benefited from the promotion of current policies, including the trade-in policy, including the local scrapping policy, which has accelerated the pace of upgrading.
In addition, the infrastructure of new energy and the ecosystem of replenishing energy and changing electricity are also starting a prairie fire.
No matter where you go to China, including Xinjiang and Xizang, driving energy vehicles is extremely smooth.
Focusing on the export market, China’s passenger car export sales totaled 4.
96 million units in 2024, an increase of 19.
7% over the same period last year.
The top 10 car companies to export, the first is Chery, exporting 1.
14 million vehicles, and the second is SAIC, 930000 vehicles.
As we all know, the punitive tariff increase in the European Union has had a certain impact on our exports in Europe.
Changan Group ranked third, followed by Geely, Great Wall, BYD and BAIC.
Tesla’s performance in the Chinese market in 2024 was greatly challenged.
Then there are Jianghuai and Dongfeng.
Nine of the top ten car companies that have accumulated total vehicle exports are OEM of China.
From January to November in 2024, the share of independent brands reached 64.8%. We still need to verify the data in December.
If we look at January-November, independent car companies sold a total of 15.
85 million vehicles, up 21.
9% from the same period last year.
In December and January, we had meetings with several Tier1 global teams, and the core topic of the meeting was how high the share could be, which will directly determine what criteria they will use in their investment in China and in their future customer selection process.
The competitiveness of independent brand models is constantly improving, which is mainly reflected in the good product technical configuration, novel appearance and pricing advantages, which can win the favor of the market and the love of consumers.
Judging from the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the cumulative sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to November exceeded 12 million, an increase of 37.
2% over the same period last year, and the penetration rate of new energy was 44.1%. This figure far exceeds our overall national plan of five years ago and seven or eight years ago, and has been taking the lead.
In the middle of this, we see an increase in the penetration of extended range and mixing, which is very related to new energy going to the countryside, exchanging old for new ones and sinking channels.
The hybrid has grown very fast in recent years, and the hybrid is very suitable for the European market, so it has a bright future from the perspective of exports.
If a technology is strong enough, there will still be a market.
According to the forecast of the Global Automotive Research Institute, in 2025, in the field of hybrid and extended range, we can see a lot of car companies put in a large number of products.
In all the new energy categories, only pure electric models should be the only one, the other is basically hybrid, extended range, pure electricity at the same time.
The competitive situation of China’s passenger car market seems to have achieved good results, but it is in dire straits.
We counted that there are about 78 car companies and more than 180 brands in the Chinese market, and now there are also mergers and integration of brands, about so many.
If you look at the original capacity planning and layout, the planned capacity for the whole year is about 54 million vehicles, including oil tankers and the original infrastructure.
If you look at the 2024 data, the total is more than 27 million vehicles, and the average capacity utilization rate is barely more than 50%, that is to say, half of the capacity is useful and half is useless.
As a result, it was possible to sell 5000 cars a month as a best-selling model, but now it takes 10, 000 a month to be a best-selling model.
According to our statistics, there are 31 car companies selling less than 5000 vehicles a month, nearly half of them.
Among the car companies that sell more than 50,000 vehicles per month, there are 14 joint ventures and 14 independent companies respectively.
If you open it, the core depends on how many brands are used to sell 50,000 vehicles per month, which will be very important.
If a single brand is a popular style strategy, if it is a “more children easy to fight” strategy, some brands may be good, some brands may not be so good.
If, from the situation of the top 10 passenger car capacity utilization companies in 2024, first count the capacity distribution, and then look at the unified caliber of production and sales volume, the highest capacity utilization rate is BYD, with a utilization rate of 96%.
BYD frantically built capacity in 2024, including domestic and overseas.
the second is Tesla, which is mainly near the port of Shanghai, and its utilization rate is about 95%.
Price war is hard to avoid.
In 2024, we can see that price war is the main theme of the industry.
According to our statistics, more than 70 car brands and 330 models participate in the price war in different forms, some terminal discounts, some official health, and some even buy one get one free.
The main cause is the dual pressure on the car market and regulations, which is in 2023There is more than one model a day, and one day even seven cars have been issued.
As the market sees that new cars are constantly pushing forward, the pressure on traditional cars and early cars will become particularly great.
I don’t know whether it’s good or not, but in fact, we will look at the problem more seriously.
Of course, it will also bring great hidden dangers.
We now see that if it cannot be large-scale or cannot be supported by funds, consumers will face great pressure if they buy a lot of new brands.
This is our forecast for the head car company in 2025.
Taking it out is bound to be controversial, but we adjust it every month.
We can see that if the whole market includes exports and local ones, the total number of units in this market is 28 million.
If you look at the top five, BYD predicts that it will exceed 5 million in 2025.
If there are no big problems, it will continue to rise from the same period last year.
Because of this year’s IPO, Chery needs to have a very good performance in the capital market, and Chery is growing rapidly in both domestic and overseas markets.
We expect Chery to reach 3.
07 million units in 2025, an increase of 24% over the same period last year.
In terms of joint ventures, we are particularly entangled.
The development of China’s automobile industry has benefited greatly from the fact that joint ventures have been continuously investing technology, products and talents in the Chinese market over the past 30 or 40 years.
We can really feel the great pressure on joint ventures now, and they are a little bit unable to adjust in the Chinese market.
For example, can high-end brands reduce their prices? If the price is not reduced, there is no scale.
If the price is reduced, the original moat will be knocked down, and consumers may not pay the bill.
In addition, the product launch cycle is too fast or too slow, as far as the joint venture factory is concerned, there is a lot of trouble about the beat of the product launch and how to put the products suitable for the Chinese market.
On the whole, the domestic market is definitely a mature market, and the core of stable and sustained growth is overseas.
We expect the market size to exceed 30 million vehicles in 2030, and the market share of competitive independent brands in this round is expected to exceed 80%.
The figure for 2030 is still a bit conservative, depending on whether there are other factors that can better balance this point.
With regard to global automobiles, as we all know, there is a deep connection between our global automotive industry and our automotive industry, and our core mission is to find good companies, promote good technology, and achieve Autobots.
Benefiting from our core mission, every business module we do, innovation is continuously expanded around three points, from media to research, from information to data, from data to products.
In January, we will launch a new industrial database, which contains all the production capacity, brands, core models, electrified and intelligent major configurations, major suppliers, configuration proportion, etc.
, which are very rich in data.
You are welcome to understand or use our industry database at the end of January or after the Spring Festival.
Configuration is a very important reflection of the scientific and technological content and value of products, such as BYD’s production base in China, the products produced, what is included in the core supply chain, the number of major suppliers in the supply chain, and the number of major suppliers in the supply chain, and the supplier can open it, which products he makes, which popular models are included in the products, benefiting from the development of AI, we can associate a lot of data.
Form a topology diagram and form a good connection.
Among them, there are also forecasts about production capacity and output, the supply chain of whole vehicle brands, there are suppliers and product libraries in the supply chain, which models are matched in turn in the product library, what brands these models belong to, and which car companies they belong to.
form a relatively perfect closed loop.
Starting from 2025, a lot of our content output will be based on the database, database adjustment, we will quickly output the corresponding content in it.
Another point is that we are now starting to do a lot of going out to sea, including setting up a new company in Munich in 2024 to better serve the globalization of our business.
At the same time, we have also set up a car think tank.
The process of cooperation over the years has been a touchstone.
We know who have their strengths and abilities and what they are good at.
We have invited them to join the Global Automotive think Tank.
Everyone is welcome to contact us in their daily operation, management and market development, including any problems encountered overseas.
We can recommend more suitable experts for you in the Galaxy Automotive think Tank to help you better solve these corresponding problems.
In the low-altitude economy and the embodied smart plate, we have also made a lot of substantial expansion.
Embodied intelligence, this time in CES, Nvidia specifically mentioned AI, which is the track of the trillion-level US dollar market, low-altitude economy is probably less than 1 game 10, car 12 trillion, but the industrial chain and our smart electric industrial chain similarity of more than 65%, need to calculate, need to sense, need to make decisions, in many industrial chains can be reused to other industries.
This time in the United States CES exhibition, Geely went to a lot of people, not the core to see the car, to see the AI application, to see that there is no scale, industrialization, but there are good prospects for development can be wrapped in, whether it is to improve organizational efficiency or enhance industrial value, or to find a larger product landing point, these are more important directions that we are thinking about.
Including some time ago, ideal also made a special AI talk, indicating that it is not just in the car.
In this field, we must also look at more extensions in the direction of the AI industry.
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