Will high-speed L3 smart driving really come next year?

Since the car entered the intelligent era, there has been an endless stream of discussions about autopilot.

Since the second half of 2023, head companies have announced that they will initially have the ability of full-scene self-driving.

In June this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments first identified nine consortia to carry out intelligent network access and road access pilot projects, marking a new stage in the promotion of intelligent network connection vehicles in China.

The new guidelines describe the phase and significance of the pilot in more detail than the preliminary notice last November.

It is reported that the first batch of units to enter the pilot consortium of intelligent network access and road access include Changan, BYD, Guangzhou Automobile, SAIC, BAIC Langu, FAW, SAIC Hongyan, Yutong bus and Xilai Automobile.

It is worth noting that manufacturers such as Jiyue, Polar Krypton, Mercedes-Benz and BMW obtained L3 test licenses in 2023, but did not appear on the pilot list in 2024.

Among them, Jiyue announced in March this year that its point-to-point navigation assistance has covered more than 400000 kilometers of roads across the country, and according to the plan, it will achieve the navigation capacity of covering 100% high-speed viaducts in 2024.

In addition, the G9 SUV, owned by Xiaopeng, obtained the Guangzhou test license of L4 as early as 2022, and then obtained the qualification of self-driving road test within the scope of Chinese roads.

The company said on on social media that it expects its models with XNGP to be capable of NOA nationwide in the third quarter of this year.

The latest data show that by the end of April 2024 China has opened more than 29000 km of intelligent network vehicle test roads issued more than 6800 test demonstration licenses and the total mileage of road tests has exceeded 88 million km.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that at present, some products already have certain conditions for mass production.

So how far is L3 from us? The industry believes that promoting the pilot is only the beginning, and improving the laws and regulations on L3 and above self-driving models is the key to large-scale commercialization.

However, the challenges faced by large-scale businesses are not just imperfect laws and regulations.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general ofWill high-speed L3 smart driving really come next year?, said that the biggest difficulty in the promotion of L3 and above assistance and self-driving is undoubtedly the limited level of existing technology.

The existing intelligent driving assistance system still has some defects in identifying the environment, establishing the cognitive ability of the old driver to the environment, and the ability of information processing.

At the same time, China’s road environment is complex, especially the urban environment is more complex, which has a great impact on autopilot in China, with a significant long tail effect.

If the relevant needs are to be met, the existing intelligent driving systems are still difficult in decision-making and prediction in complex environments.

Therefore, it is necessary for the automobile to have a great improvement in the cooperation of intelligent algorithms and related hardware systems.

Although L3 autopilot is regarded as a watershed in the legal sense of autopilot, it is still technically not completely separated from people, completely autonomous in service and work, and still relies on human monitoring and take-over in times of crisis.

Of course, this also shows that because the L3 is relatively less technically difficult, it should be easier to land in the short term.

Previously, Yu Chengdong also said in an interview that the real arrival of the L3 depends on national laws and regulations, but now Huawei’s ability may be solved quickly, that is, closed sections such as highways and expressways can be realized very quickly, but the L3 smart driving in the urban area may take some time to polish.

In addition, it is reported that Shanghai is promoting 10 Tesla vehicles to carry out fully automatic driving (FSD) landing pilot.

On the entry of Tesla FSD into China, Cui Dongshu said that this will undoubtedly play a promoting role.

This promotion is different from the hardware promotion.

Behind the hardware promotion is the upgrading of suppliers and supply chain, which drives the whole industry chain.

At the same time, as long as the hardware can be bought, everyone can match it as standard.

Behind the software is the company’s monopoly on intellectual property rights, and it is also the core asset of modern intelligent driving companies.

The introduction of relevant software into the market will not directly promote the overall leap of domestic intelligent driving level.

Zhu Xichan, a professor at the School of Automotive of Tongji University, said that there is no specific standard to clearly define L3 and L4 self-driving technology, and mass-produced models in China are generally in the L2-level auxiliary driving stage.

some brand sales will promote their products at the L2 + level.

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, 3.

6842 million new energy passenger vehicles in China are equipped with L2-level auxiliary driving functions in 2023, with a penetration rate of 50.56%. Will high-speed L3 smart driving really come next year?, Fang Yinliang, global managing partner of McKinsey, also said that there are still many challenges in the development of autopilot, including cost, and when L3 or higher autopilot can really land depends on whether it can really meet the expectations and needs of consumers in various scenarios in the future.

From L2 to L3 or even higher, the obvious difference is that the scope of application of the design and operation area of autopilot will be greatly improved, and under certain design and operation conditions, the system will be able to perform all dynamic driving tasks This also means that more stringent requirements will be put forward for the overall security and reliability of the intelligent driving system.

multi-dimensional upgrades need to be carried out in the aspects of takeover mechanism, redundant security, human-computer interaction, product operation security, network security, data security and data records.

Cinda Securities believes that the gradual landing of the L3 self-driving test is expected to promote the further iteration of high-level intelligent driving, and car companies have greatly increased their attention to high-level intelligent driving.

Intelligent driving is also expected to become an important consideration for car owners.

Many car companies have also begun to lay out L3 smart driving programs.

Jin Yuzhi, BU CEO of Huawei’s smart car solution, said publicly on June 15 that he hopes to open high-speed L3 smart driving next year.

He said that at present, China attaches great importance to L3 intelligent driving.

At the same time, he also discussed in depth many bright spots and future plans of Huawei’s smart driving.

First of all, he stressed that Huawei’s pure vision solution for smart driving has surpassed Tesla’s FSD and demonstrated Huawei’s deep strength in the field of smart driving technology.

Jin Yuzhi revealed that next year, as many as 2 million vehicles will be equipped with Huawei’s smart driving system, which is of the same order of magnitude as Tesla’s FSD deployment, fully demonstrating Huawei’s strong momentum in the smart driving market.

In terms of autopilot, he expects Huawei to reach L3 next year and L4 or higher in the next three to five years, further promoting the development of intelligent driving technology.

Li Xiang, Chairman and CEO of Ideal Automobile, pointed out at the 2024 China Automobile Chongqing Forum that Ideal Automobile plans to push the national no-picture NOA (Navigation Assisted Driving) function to all users in the third quarter of this year.

At the same time, the company will also push the end-to-end +VLM autonomous driving system trained based on 3 million clips to test users.

It is expected that as early as the end of this year and early next year, Ideal Car will launch a more complete autonomous driving system trained through more than 10 million clips to provide users with a supervised L3 autonomous driving experience.

With the improvement of computing power and continuous optimization of models, unsupervised L4 autonomous driving will be realized in the next three years.

,, It is believed that with the continuous advancement of technology and the promotion of policies, the widespread application of high-speed L3 intelligent driving will be just around the corner.

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