With the end of the year approaching, looking back at the Chinese auto market in the past year, although there is a good chance that sales will increase throughout the year, there is a huge price behind the growth.
The internal volume, which began at the beginning of the year, to the promotion of various promotion policies in the middle of the year, has contributed to good results after all.
But as a connoisseur, many auto executives have seen the crisis.
Li Bin, founder of Weilai: the fiercest and cruelest stage of the qualifying round for the intelligent electric vehicle industry has come, and only a few excellent enterprises can survive after two or three years.
Deng Chenghao, vice president of Changan Automobile and CEO of Deep Blue Automobile: the price war will be more fierce next year, and the gross profit will basically survive in 15% of the car companies, while selling a losing brand may not be able to survive.
Xiaopeng Automobile CEO he Xiaopeng: 2024 is the first year for Chinese car brands to enter the “sea of blood” competition, that is, the first year of the knockout stage.
Firmly believe that in the next three years, China’s new energy vehicles will enter the knockout stage.
Polar krypton car CMO Guan Haitao: next year, with all kinds of power forms and product layout of mainstream brands, the next 2-3 years will be the most difficult two years.
“living” is the only proposition, and a little “living with quality” is an extravagant hope.
In November alone, four bosses made such warnings in a row.
For all participants, this is both a test and an opportunity.
Only those enterprises that can accurately grasp market trends, continuous innovation and continuous optimization can stand out in this fierce competition.
Are these the ways to live? Although they all have their own opinions, and each executive has expressed his views based on the position and perspective of his own enterprise, as the core executives of the enterprise, the remarks of these four industry leaders have undoubtedly brought profound and valuable enlightenment to the whole automobile industry.
In the face of such outspoken predictions from industry leaders, the entire auto industry is feeling unprecedented urgency and pressure.
Li Bin’s remarks reflect the fierce competition stage that the electric vehicle industry is about to enter.
His words reveal a profound insight into the future of the industry and emphasize the survival law of “a small number of excellent enterprises.
” this is not only an early warning of the cruelty of market competition, but also a profound reminder of enterprises in the industry.
In this critical period, enterprises need to examine themselves and make clear which core values and core competencies must be adhered to, and which strategies and models need to be flexibly adjusted according to market changes.
Persistence and innovation will become the wings for enterprises to ride through the storm and move forward steadily.
Deng Chenghao directly pointed out the double challenges brought by the price war and subsidy policy.
He stressed that while these measures may stimulate sales in the short term, over-reliance will overdraw the market potential and intensify competition in the industry in the long run.
The 15% gross margin threshold is not only a rigid requirement for corporate profitability, but also a measure of corporate health.
In the smoke of the price war, under the background of rising costs and squeezed profit margins, how to maintain a reasonable gross profit margin has become the key to the sustainable operation of enterprises.
This requires that automobile enterprises must refine management, optimize supply chain and improve production efficiency.
At the same time, they also need to innovate constantly to find differentiated competitive advantages and avoid falling into the quagmire of simple price competition.
He Xiaopeng regards 2024 as the beginning of the “blood sea” competition of Chinese car brands, and the three-year knockout stage means that during this period, the industry will undergo a large-scale consolidation.
Only those enterprises with core competitiveness and can quickly adapt to market changes can survive and further promote the maturity and concentration of the new energy vehicle industry.
In addition, he predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will reach more than 85%, which means that new energy vehicles will be fully integrated into people’s daily life and become the mainstream of travel mode.
On the other hand, the change of AI technology will serve as a powerful driving force for the improvement of new energy vehicle penetration.
This forecast not only shows the broad prospects for the development of the industry, but also indicates that the market competition will be more fierce.
Guan Haitao’s comments further highlighted the magnitude of the challenges facing the auto industry in the next few years, noting that with the comprehensive layout of major mainstream brands, the auto industry will enter an unprecedented “warring States era.
” In this battle, “living” has become the common goal of all enterprises, while “quality survival” has become the higher realm that enterprises pursue.
A protracted war will become the norm that every car brand must face squarely.
This means that enterprises can no longer have the mentality of short-term behavior, but should be prepared for long-term combat.
To withstand loneliness, withstand temptation, continue to invest, continue to accumulate.
Only in this way can we be in an invincible position in the future competition.
It can be seen that the electric vehicle industry is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities.
The challenge lies in the intensification of market competition, the test of profitability and the pressure of technological iteration, while the opportunity lies in the market redistribution brought about by industry reshuffle, the sustained growth of the new energy vehicle market and the new opportunities brought by technological innovation.
Which brands will be eliminated? In fact, every year is a knockout stage.
Every year, the market is changing, consumer demand is upgrading, technology is improving, and the policy environment is adjusting.
In this fast iterative market, there is no eternal winner, only enterprises that constantly adapt and innovate can gain a foothold in the fierce competition.
According to incomplete statistics, in 2018, the number of new energy vehicle companies in China reached 487, which not only reflects the vitality and great potential of the industry at that time, but also indicates that the new energy vehicle market is about to usher in an unprecedented feast.
However, times have changed, and by the end of 2023, the number of new energy vehicle companies that can operate has drastically reduced to more than 40.
This great change is not only shocking, but also thought-provoking.
In the early stage of the development of the industry, due to the dual drive of policy support and market demand, a large number of enterprises poured into the field of new energy vehicles, resulting in a mixed market.
However, with the gradual maturity of the market and the intensification of competition, those enterprises with real strength, technology and market insight have survived, and some of them have become leaders in the industry.
This is true of the new energy vehicle market, and the same is true of the fuel truck market.
Taking the just-concluded Guangzhou Auto Show as an example, compared with the previous years, it is not difficult to find that some familiar car brands have been absent.
They are Jennifer Seth, Gaohe, Chery Jaguar Land Rover, Subaru, FAW-Volkswagen Jetta, Chevrolet, Jetstar, Co-chuang, Qichen, Blue Power, Rolls-Royce andMaisarui.
, This series of absent brand lists not only reflects the subtle changes in the current competitive landscape of the automobile market, but also reveals the profound adjustments and reshuffle being experienced within the industry.
Behind each absent brand, there may be its own stories and considerations hidden-some may be due to the adjustment of market strategies and choose to temporarily fade out of public view.
some may be struggling in the fierce market competition and have to re-examine market positioning and future development path.
So back to the topic that everyone loves to discuss, who will not survive next year or in the next 2-3 years?, The car brands with cumulative sales from January to October show that the brands with sales last year but no sales at all this year are Volkswagen Anhui, GAC Mitsubishi, Guojin Automobile, Southeast Automobile, Aichi Automobile and Tianji Automobile.
Brands with cumulative sales of less than 10,000 vehicles in the first 10 months of this year include Baoneng Automobile, Mustang Automobile, Haima Automobile, Gaohe Automobile, Foton Motor, Hechuang Automobile, Heavy Duty Truck VGV, and Skyworth Automobile.
, When discussing which automobile brands may face survival crises in the next 2-3 years, we must not only pay attention to current sales data, but also conduct in-depth analysis of the market trends, technological innovation, policy orientation and the company’s strategic adjustment capabilities behind them.
From the above-mentioned brands with sluggish sales, we can see several key points and analyze them accordingly.
First of all, the reshuffle in the new energy field is still accelerating.
The plight of new car-making companies such as Aichi Automobile, Tianji Automobile, and Gaohe Automobile partially reflects the characteristics of high funding barriers, fast technology iteration, and fierce market competition in this field.
These companies often face multiple challenges such as tight capital chains, insufficient product competitiveness, and low brand recognition.
, In the future, as the new energy vehicle market further matures and consumer needs become increasingly diversified, it will be more difficult for new energy brands that cannot respond quickly to market changes and lack core technology competitiveness to establish a foothold.
Secondly, the transformation of traditional automobile companies is not easy.
The decline in sales of traditional car companies reflects their difficulties in the process of new energy transformation.
These companies need to face the shrinking of the existing fuel vehicle market and at the same time compete with emerging forces in the new energy field.
Under the dual pressure, companies with slow transformation or improper strategies may face the risk of being eliminated.
Moreover, although local background support can provide a certain buffer, it is not a long-term solution.
Although companies that rely on local backgrounds such as Mustang Motors, Haima Motors and even Nezha Motors, which has recently been plagued by negative factors, may be maintained due to policy support in the short term, in the long run, if they cannot achieve self-growth and enhance product competitiveness and brand influence, it is also difficult to escape the fate of market elimination.
In any case, although elimination is an inevitable phenomenon in the development of the automobile industry, it has also brought about the purification and reshaping of the industry, the redistribution of resources, the reshuffle of the pattern, better satisfaction of consumer needs, and Warning and reflection on the development of the industry.
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