When the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds 50% again…

Recently, I have been thinking about a question: “how on earth should we judge China’s auto market this year?” Perhaps, in the eyes of some people, the whole market is full of vicious competition.

perhaps, in the eyes of some people, the whole market is full of garbage flow.

perhaps, in the eyes of some people, the whole market has been shrouded in a “price war” that shows no sign of stopping.

Anyway, the proportion of negatives is far greater than that of positives.

However, in my mind, I do not think so.

“the above seemingly profound experiences can only be said to be part of the epitome of the rolling forward of China’s auto market, and from a more macro perspective, the whole market is undoubtedly creating a new milestone and node.

” that is the complete ownership of new energy vehicles.

” In other words, admit it or not, the streetcar has really defeated the oil car, and when this wave of “flood” is more and more surging, no one can stop it.

As the most convincing argument, with the retail penetration of new energy vehicles reaching 51.

1% in July, a lot has been proved.

Unexpectedly, this past August, combined with the spoiler of the Federation of passengers, the achievement with full gold content will be further raised to 53.2%. As a result, I can’t help recalling his prediction made by Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, at the beginning of this year, “the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will certainly break the 50% mark in a single month.

” In an instant, he was questioned by people.

Standing at that node, although the share of oil tankers is still shrinking, but after all, “skinny camels are bigger than horses” and still occupy a certain lead.

But what no one expected was that the inflection point would come so quickly.

And in the following space, I take the opportunity to try to talk about some of my judgments.

First of all, oil tankers located in China’s auto market will not “die out”, but will degenerate to a very small share.

At the second quarter earnings call, Li Bin judged: “in about two years, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles will climb to 80%.

” I, on the other hand, feel more certain that it will reach 90% or higher.

As for the root cause, we can still see that the trams are being subdivided into various sectors to achieve a comprehensive replacement for oil cars.

From tens of millions of top supercars to tens of thousands of yuan trolleys, almost all of them are doing the same thing.

Once this ripple effect is formed, the change will be revolutionary.

Oil tanker, there may be only 10% left in the future cake.

Secondly, under chaotic warfare, plug-in may surpass pure electricity.

In fact, combined with the composition of new energy vehicle sales in a single month this year, the fastest growth rate is extended range, the second is really mixed, on the contrary, pure electricity is caught in a big upward bottleneck.

And if we divide the first two into the broad category of “interruption”, we even have signs of arm wrestling with the latter in terms of share.

In the face of such a result, we can only say: “the will of the people.

” For most users who are just beginning to accept new energy vehicles, “interrupting” is their destination at this stage.

After all, the car environment in China’s car market is too complex, and the corresponding needs are bound to be varied.

In particular, with a hard-mouthed car company, in the face of the general trend had to wear a hat to start defection, more and more feel that “plug in” is becoming unstoppable.

Next year, when the “plug-in” uses power batteries with larger capacity, faster energy replenishment speed and higher discharge rate, as well as the previously criticized fuel consumption and power loss, pure electricity players will become very embarrassed.

At that time, in terms of sales, it is really hard to say who will lose and who will win.

Moreover, the pattern of China’s auto market is basically settled.

Last month, at the launch of Xiaopeng MONA M03, he Xiaopeng, who slowly mastered the essence of “Lei Xue”, said: “in the next 10 years, there may be only seven mainstream brands in China.

” It is not particularly interesting to predict that there is a certain degree of “exaggeration” that means too long-term prediction.

But rationally and objectively speaking, the era of new energy vehicles will never let a hundred flowers blossom like the era of oil trucks.

With more and more homogenized products, it is doomed that only the so-called efficient giants can break through the tight encirclement.

This year, with the sudden collapse of late entrants like Gaohe, and the growing advantages of frontrunners like BYD, they are gradually proving a truth: “the ranking of seats is being divided rapidly.

” Wang Chuanfu said: “this is the era of fast fish eating slow fish, not the era of big fish eating small fish.

If car companies do not rush up in the next 3-5 years, they will not have a chance.

” Again, I’m not just saying.

As for who will eventually stay on the poker table, the list will only be selected from the main engine factory that is desperately running.

Finally, the counterattack of the joint venture will be fiercer than expected.

At present, one can always hear a voice of disparaging them: “in this wave of bullets in the Chinese car market, the first in jeopardy is the legal system that is not convinced by soil and water, followed by the Korean system and the American system, which adhere to the line of performance-to-price ratio, and then the Japanese system, which focuses on low economic consumption, will encounter big trouble.

because of the existence of BBA and Volkswagen, the German system has the thickest blood, but it is still far from the bravery it was then.

” In reality, this seems to be the case.

But after the just-concluded Chengdu auto show, Fu Qiang, SAIC Volkswagen’s deputy general manager of sales and marketing, pointed the gun directly at BYD and blasted that its share of the mix would fall from the current 30% to 10%.

With a brief overview and a clear knowledge of the moment, the counterattack belonging to the joint venture slowly began.

Although elephants turn around slowly, how can they easily give up the Chinese car market because of their heavy blood and plenty of food? Truly ambitious brands will never watch themselves become “delicacies” on other people’s tables, but want to continue to serve as food distributors in China.

Oh, believe it or not, we’ll see.

, return to the first electric network home page >.

Link to this article: https://evcnd.com/when-the-retail-penetration-rate-of-new-energy-vehicles-exceeds-50-again/

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