“at that moment, I heard someone calling my name.
I looked back and dodged the bullet and saw God say to me, ‘this is my vote’.
” After Trump was shot in Pennsylvania on July 13, 2024, local time, a good man wrote the above sentence by imitating the tone of Donald Trump’s autobiography.
There is no doubt that Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have greatly increased.
After the attack, Mr Trump’s winning rate rose sharply from 60 per cent to 70 per cent, according to Polymarket, a forecasting website.
We don’t talk about politics, we only talk about cars.
If the helm is changed on the other side of the ocean, the global environmental factors facing China’s automobile industry may change dramatically.
Looking back on Trump’s 45th term as president of the United States, from January 20, 2017 to January 20, 2021, the auto industry will not forget: when the Sino-US trade war broke out in 2018, not only the export of Chinese auto parts to the United States was curbed, but at the same time, US sanctions on Chinese chips led to a structural shortage of automotive chips in 2021, resulting in a reduction in global auto production.
Once Trump re-enters the White House, we have to plan ahead of time what impact it will have on the global auto industry, especially on China’s auto industry.
Slightly good for fuel cars, see through the nature of Trump’s businessman-love money, then it must be related to his repeated talk of oil, which is also closely related to the auto industry.
In the scenario of Trump’s election, the target price of crude oil in 2025 is only $60.
” In February, Citigroup analyst Eric Lee predicted that WTI crude is now about $81.
32 a barrel.
Trump advocates fossil fuels and promotes the return of manufacturing.
In the face of the request of the Saudi Crown Prince for help, the request was to “expand production and hold down oil prices.
” In March 2022, due to Biden’s ban on the import of Russian oil and gas due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, US gasoline prices rose to a record, and Trump tweeted that “the highest gasoline price in history!” Don’t forget to take the opportunity to rein in and ask, “do you miss me?” Therefore, Trump’s attitude towards the oil industry is to relax regulation and encourage investment, which is conducive to the expansion of the scale of practitioners, promotion and salary increases, and represents the interests of oil and gas users and oil employees, but it is bad for oil shareholders.
When the price of oil goes down, there will be a relatively good condition for fuel cars.
However, there are many factors affecting the price of domestic oil products, which are slightly positive.
However, since the domestic auto industry has increasingly realized that “the profit contribution of gasoline vehicles and the balanced effect of hybrid vehicles are irreplaceable for a certain period of time,” Trump’s re-election will reinforce this perception.
In the first half of 2024, when overall passenger car retail sales increased by only 2.
9% year-on-year to 9.
933 million units, new energy vehicles stood out with 4.
111 million units and 33.
1% growth, with a penetration rate of 41.4%. Among them, plug-in (including extended range) surged 69.
5% compared with the same period last year, and pure electricity increased by 15.8%. The 1.
687 million cars mixed in are not far from the 2.
425 million cars of pure electricity.
The future decline in fuel vehicle sales is expected to narrow as prices relax and oil prices fall after Trump’s election.
the popularity of hybrid cars remains high.
It is disadvantageous to automobile exports, especially the Russian market.
At present, Chinese cars have been paid more and more attention to sailing out to sea, and their achievements have also made great strides forward, becoming one of the models of double circular economy.
Whether Trump is elected or not, it will not change the macro trend that Chinese cars will continue to make efforts to go abroad, but it will have an impact on the regional business structure, and it will also change the situation of Chinese car exports because of the currency exchange rate.
First of all, let’s look at the currency exchange rate.
Trump has always tried to boost domestic manufacturing and restrain the exchange rate of the US dollar, so as to create a good environment for the development of domestic manufacturing, which is conducive to the return of production capacity.
Therefore, his “scoring twice” will be bad for the exchange rate of the US dollar.
In addition, the rise in domestic demand in China, which will be mentioned below, will be related to risky assets and interest rates on treasury bonds, which will promote the appreciation of the RMB.
The fall of the US dollar and the rise of the RMB have the most direct impact on the automobile industry, which is not conducive to exports.
Of course, at present, Chinese cars have changed from simple KD assembly to technology and brands going to sea.
The localization system will absorb some exchange rate shocks, but after all, the exchange rate impact can not be completely avoided.
Secondly, structural changes will take place in the export regional market.
As we all know, Trump has a close relationship with Russia.
If Trump re-enters the White House, it will hasten the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine, and will eventually favor Ukraine to make concessions to Russia.
Whether the stronger RMB is not conducive to the export of Chinese cars to Russia, or the relaxation of relations between Russia and other countries and the possibility of reintroducing other types of cars to compete, the “most comfortable days” for Chinese cars in Russia, maybe it will be fixed in 2023-2024.
According to the Russian European Enterprise Association, among the top 10 sales in the Russian passenger car market in 2023, there are six Chinese car brands, with Russian new car sales of 1.
0587 million units, an increase of 69 percent over the same period last year.
Chinese brands account for 49 per cent, according to Otto Crete, a large Russian commercial bank.
From January to June in 2024, Russian car sales rose 75 per cent year-on-year to more than 700000, of which 53.
1 per cent of the 130700 new cars sold in June came from China, reaching 69400.
However, the current route of Chinese cars to go to sea is more three-dimensional and rational, and when the Russian market is in the doldrums, markets such as Southeast Asia may rise even more.
The domestic demand policy in the domestic automobile market will be more active.
When Biden took over the White House, his tendency was to give China’s middle and low-end exports a more relaxed environment, after all, he could make full use of the characteristics of China’s “factory of the world”.
To provide the United States with low-cost raw materials and light processing products.
So during Biden’s tenure, China strengthened its export business.
Export is to make profits, while domestic demand is to distribute profits.
When exports are strong, the optimization of domestic demand is not so urgent.
In 2023, the performance of the domestic automobile market was not very good, the price war directly lowered the profits of the entire automobile industry, and domestic passenger car terminal sales were less than the peak in 2017, but still relied on the new high of exports.
Let China’s car sales break through the 30 million mark for the first time.
Once Trump, whose policy direction is very different from that of Biden, takes office, the US policy adjustment will be bad for China’s exports, but it will be good for the RMB exchange rate and China’s domestic demand.
This year, the automobile industry has seen signs of “loosening the opening” in cities with license plate restrictions and purchase restrictions, which will be strengthened with the changes in the United States.
“It is expected that more domestic demand policies will be introduced, and they will be more powerful than the semi-convergence in previous years, and they will no longer be hidden.
” Friends from the financial field said, This will promote strong domestic demand in areas including the automobile industry.
It will be related to China’s risk assets, government bond interest rates, etc.
, and will be more beneficial to the first purchase of vehicles, gasoline vehicles, and hybrid cars.
It is not conducive to building China’s automotive technology industry chain in the United States.
Since Trump has been shouting the slogan of “revitalizing manufacturing”, many views believe that Trump will tend to introduce China’s leading manufacturing companies to the United States.
Yes, we mentioned earlier that Trump’s “manufacturing bias” will have an impact from the perspective of currency exchange rates.
However, Trump’s orientation in the dimension of manufacturing technology change will prevent the Chinese automobile industry from going to the United States to build a technology industry chain.
Even if it takes the initiative to show kindness and sincerely provides technical exchanges, it may not be able to obtain opportunities.
, Trump, who represents the “red-necked” trend of thought, will not encourage the rapid development of electric vehicles since he has firmly chosen to support the popularization of oil and traditional energy sources (rather than the interests of oil tycoons).
The plan to enter the United States to build factories during the Ningde era was formed during Biden’s term.
Because of this, in fact, the share of U.S. manufacturing in GDP did not increase substantially during Trump’s tenure.
It performed best from the second quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2019, with an increase of only 0.
2 percentage points, from 11.1%. It increased to 11.
3%, and then declined to 11.0%. On the contrary, the contribution of the financial services industry continued to soar.
Therefore, there is a high probability that Chinese automobiles will not be able to use electric vehicle technology as a stepping stone to open the door to the North American market by “sharing technology and industrial chain”, especially when Trump is in power.
The relative cessation of the “water army industry” is conducive to correcting automobile marketing.
Finally, after Trump was elected, the most unsubstantial factor but the most likely factor to disrupt public view at the level of public opinion is that the “water army industry” will be relatively peaceful during the Biden period.
In terms of marketing, China’s automobile industry has suffered from “excessive marketing” and “fan circle marketing” in recent years, and the water army of religious brands has become foul.
In a sense, the navy of current politics and industry may share the same group of people or robots.
Trump is known as “cutting off dog food” and disregards the effect of the water army’s public opinion war.
In the Internet environment, fans of “a filial son in a car” often highly overlap with “squid” and “squid” in current affairs.
When Trump comes to power again, the Internet environment, including the automobile industry, may be slightly more relaxed.
All in all, Trump’s coming to power will not have a fundamental change in Chinese automobiles and even the entire Chinese economy, but it will bring about changes that cannot be ignored in the details of the development path, whether it is the structural dimension or the progress dimension.
How to move with the wind and follow the times is an ability that Chinese cars must master when they are spreading their wings and flying.
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