With the dust settling in the new US presidential election, Donald Trump is about to become the next “helmsman” of the United States, which not only heralds the potential adjustment of national policy, but also affects the trend and trend of the global automobile industry.
Photo: Trump ins, how are manufacturers, industry groups, analysts and other stakeholders responding to the heated debate in the auto industry about Trump’s victory? Automaker Toyota Motor: ready to change strategy Toyota North America head of Toyota Dave Christ: Toyota will not overhaul its US strategy because of Donald Trump’s election.
“We will cooperate with any rules placed in front of us.
” “We have 10 manufacturing plants in the United States, and I don’t think our business will change much,” he said, but “we are ready to adjust.
” Honda: us tariffs on Mexican cars will have a major impact.
Honda Executive Vice President Shinji Aoyama: “We have about 200000 cars made in Mexico, 80% of which are exported to the United States, about 160000.
As a result, the number of cars affected by the tariff may be about 160000.
” If the United States imposes tariffs, it could have a significant impact on Mexican-made exports, not just Honda, GM, Ford and other Japanese companies, but all companies will face the same situation.
As a result, he believes that tariffs are unlikely to take effect immediately.
However, if the United States really wants to implement new tariffs, it will take lobbying and other actions.
If the tariff is permanent (and may not be permanent), “then we may consider producing in places that are not subject to US tariffs”.
BMW Group: BMW has a strategic advantage in the face of tariffs, BMW Group CEO Oliver Zipse: if Trump imposes tariffs, BMW may have a “greater advantage”, “because our business in the United States is very, very large, and we don’t need to be too nervous about what might happen.
” We have a very strong local business, operating in 30 locations in 12 states in the United States.
2/3 of our sales in the United States come from its Spartanburg plant in the United States, and BMW has a strategic advantage in the face of potential tariffs.
” Source: Tesla, Musk: Trump has a clear mandate for change, Tesla CEO Elon Musk: “the American people have given Donald Trump a very clear mandate for change tonight.
” Stellantis: looking forward to working with Trump, Stellantis: “Stellantis congratulates former President Donald Trump on his election as the 47th president of the United States.
” We look forward to working with Trump and the new Congress to develop policies to support America’s strong and competitive manufacturing base.
” GM: looking forward to working with Trump, GM: “We congratulate the president-elect, Congress and all elected officials and look forward to working with them to ensure that the United States continues to lead the world in technology and innovation.
Benefit American workers and consumers.
” No matter who is in power, it’s time for the government to act, Shawn Fain, president of the UAW: “Today, members across the country face the same threat as yesterday: unfettered greed in business is destroying our lives, families and communities.
We have always stressed that no matter who wins the White House, the goal of our struggle is always the same.
We will continue to fight for broken trade laws, such as USMCA, for good union work and America’s leadership in the emerging battery industry, for retirement protection for everyone in the country, for a minimum living wage, affordable health care, and family time.
No matter what the political party, no matter who the candidate is, it is time for the government to act.
Will our government side with the working class? Or continue to serve billionaires? This is the problem we face today, and it is also the problem we will face tomorrow.
The answer is in our hands, no matter who is in power.
” Photo: UAW,Electric Drive Transportation Association: looking forward to working with both houses to maintain momentum, EDTA: “EDTA congratulates the winners of the election, including Trump and members of the new House and Senate.
” We look forward to continuing to work with both chambers to help the United States build leadership and seize the economic and environmental opportunities presented by electric technology.
The US electric vehicle industry is booming and now has more than 130 electric models to choose from, with sales of nearly 6 million.
362 companies have announced private investments totaling $320 billion in the U. S. electric car market.
Last year, the electrified car sector, including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, all-electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles, created 373605 jobs in the United States.
Key areas of the electric vehicle ecosystem, such as energy storage and grid technology, contribute another 146811 jobs, while power transmission and distribution provide more than 703000 jobs.
Electrification is the future of transportation and our country cannot give up the opportunity to take the lead in this key market.
EDTA is ready to work with the new administration and Congress to maintain our momentum and ensure that the United States continues to take the lead in the global electric vehicle race.
” “with Trump’s imminent return to the White House, US support for electric vehicles faces a more uncertain future,” said Susannah Streeter, head of funding and marketing at Hargreaves Lansdown,Hargreaves Lansdown, a research institute and analyst.
Tesla CEO Musk has won a place on Trump’s management team, which could put electric vehicle competitors such as Rivian at a disadvantage in future policy decisions.
” GlobalData: the transformation of electrification in the United States will be hindered, GlobalData: “We expect current trade protectionism to intensify during the Trump administration, with imports of cars and technology from China to be the focus.
Tariffs are a major hidden danger for the auto industry, which may lead to a rise in the price of cars purchased by consumers and may limit consumers’ choices.
Tariffs have an impact on any car imported into the United States, including from Mexico and Canada.
Car purchases may change, but not in the short term, because the change takes time.
We need to wipe our eyes.
It remains to be seen whether the widespread imposition of tariffs is a negotiating strategy or a real plan.
We expect the transition to electric cars to be hampered during the Trump administration.
Compared with our basic forecast, his focus on reducing oil / fuel prices and emission standards could lead to a 15-20% decline in the market share of pure electric vehicles in the United States by 2030.
Cox Automotive: us car sales are expected to grow by about 2% this year.
“fortunately, all the signs are that the dust has settled in the election, and we can now begin to plan the way forward.
” This could be good news for car sales, which have been adversely affected by the US election, according to research.
In October, despite hurricanes Helen and Milton wreaking havoc in the southeast, new car sales in the United States were still slightly higher than we expected as the election advanced.
Our team expects new car sales in the United States to rise in 2024 as the market direction is clear and consumer confidence improves.
Our forecast for new car sales in the US this year is still set at 15.
7 million, an increase of about 2 per cent over the same period last year.
” , photo source: Tesla, Wedbush: Tesla will usher in a major positive, Wedbush: “with Trump winning the White House election and the Republican Party’s overall victory in Washington, Wall Street is beginning to digest the impact on the overall market and the technology industry.
In the coming year, Trump’s tariff policy and tough stance on China will have an impact on supply chains, chips and large technology companies.
This means that we expect Trump to show strong concern for the artificial intelligence of large US technology companies from the very beginning, and Musk’s big bet on Trump will bring great benefits to Tesla.
” TD Cowen: there may be major changes in US energy transformation policy, TD Cowen: “US energy transformation policy is expected to undergo major changes in 2025.
Trump’s (Republican) White House will push out policies such as regulation, trade / tariffs and revision of the inflation reduction Act (IRA) guidelines.
Trump’s victory will put a package of Trump-led executive policies into practice-massively repealing or cutting regulations / regulations covering everything from cars to power plants to home appliances, imposing higher and broader tariffs on Chinese supply chains that affect energy storage and photovoltaic solar energy, and revising IRA guidelines.
Trump is likely to accelerate deregulation and trade actions (expected in early 2025), but it will take longer to revise the IRA guidelines.
In the medium term (until the 2026 election cycle), we believe that US manufacturing and grid / grid technology are the most advantageous areas of energy transformation, while from a policy risk perspective, car electrification and offshore wind power will be in the worst position.
Morningstar DBRS: the new US tariff policy is not good for European companies.
Edoardo Danieli, vice president of Morningstar DBRS, said: “European companies are highly sensitive to the new US tariffs.
In the short term, this may affect its profits, in the medium term, it may lead to the transfer of investment to the United States.
” Throughout the campaign, both presidential candidates put forward the idea of imposing a general tariff of 10%, 20%, on imports.
European and European companies are expected to be heavily affected by US tariffs given that the EU is highly dependent on trade and that the US is the largest destination for European exports.
The industries most affected in Europe are pharmaceuticals, automobiles and chemicals, which account for a very large share of European exports to the US, and other markets or local demand is unlikely to make up for this adverse impact.
In the medium term, European companies may transfer a larger proportion of production to the United States, but this could be very expensive and will take years to put into operation.
Global Automotive Research Institute: hinder the development of electric vehicles and increase restrictions on China.
Global Automotive Research Institute: Trump may hinder the development of electric vehicles in a variety of ways after taking office, such as relaxing fuel consumption regulations, cutting tax credits for electric vehicles, industrial subsidies, slowing the construction of charging infrastructure, and so on.
From the enterprise level, this will further aggravate the competitiveness disadvantage of traditional American car companies in the field of electric vehicles, and at the same time, it will affect the electrification investment achievements of many foreign enterprises in the United States, and the local layout of Chinese power battery enterprises will slow down at the same time.
At the industry level, this will undoubtedly prevent many potential consumers from buying electric cars, leading to a decline in overall sales of electric vehicles in the United States and a slowdown in the electrification of the US car market.
At present, China exports fewer vehicles to the United States, with only 61000 passenger cars exported to the United States from January to August 2024, accounting for only 1.
7 percent, so it is less directly affected by Trump’s tariff policy.
by contrast, spare parts products are more affected.
Because China currently exports mainly auto parts to the United States, the value of exports from January to August in 2024 is 12.
1 billion US dollars.
After Trump took office, export restrictions on the US chip industry are likely to increase in order to crack down on the development of China’s new energy vehicles.
However, everything has two sides, and the regulation of chips, advanced manufacturing equipment and materials in the United States is expected to force domestic related industries to usher in a new round of accelerated development.
stimulate domestic enterprises to have independent control and self-research breakthroughs in core technology and core manufacturing equipment.
In conclusion, with Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election, manufacturers, suppliers, analysts and other stakeholders in the auto industry have different expectations for the future direction of policy.
Automakers focused on topics such as trade, tariffs and cooperation, said they were prepared to deal with regulatory changes and looked forward to working with the government, while the American Automobile Union, which supported Harris’s campaign, called on the government to pay more attention to the interests of workers.
Automotive analysts and institutions pay more attention to the areas of tariff, automobile production and the popularity of electric vehicles.
On the one hand, they generally believe that the US manufacturing industry is expected to achieve further return, but the transformation of electric vehicles will face obstacles.
On the other hand, they pointed out that the new tariff policy will not only impact Chinese and European companies, but also not conducive to the development of American consumers and American companies.
Policy changes in the US auto industry are beginning to show clear prospects, but there is also a degree of uncertainty in the future, given that Mr Trump will officially take office next year.
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