“unprecedented in history.
” “Spring for solid-state batteries is coming!” “the ‘national team’ is about to appear!” The excitement of a wave of traffic was based on the news on May 29, broadcast by China Daily.
In other words, China may invest about 6 billion yuan in all-solid-state battery research and development, including Ningde Times, BYD, FAW, SAIC, Weilan New Energy and Geely, which may receive government basic R & D support.
However, it is reported that after strict screening, the project is finally divided into seven major projects, including different technical routes.
The key point is that these seven “unprecedented in the industry” projects are led by relevant government ministries.
At present, it is still in the project defense stage.
This adds another handful of firewood to the already hot “all-solid-state battery”.
New “clockwork” has also been twisted on the mass production schedule of solid-state batteries.
But one problem is that 6 billion yuan is divided into seven projects, which is not much on average.
So what are these traffic parties so excited about? The suggestion of academician 01 is to look at the top-level design first, which is about the “proposal on the general route for the development of all-solid-state batteries in China” put forward by Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
The source is that on January 21, 2024, under the leadership of Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the “China all-solid-state battery industry-university-research collaborative innovation platform” was officially established in Beijing.
This is an unincorporated organization dedicated to promoting the academic and industrial development of all-solid-state batteries in China.
At the meeting, Zheng Hongyu, chairman of the China Chemical and physical Power Industry Association, also proposed that the establishment of the “China all-solid-state battery industry-university-research collaborative innovation platform” is not only an important step in the development of China’s lithium power industry, but also the implementation of the national strategic intention.
Prior to this, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also solicited opinions on the revision of the Lithium Battery Industry specifications (2024) and added new requirements for solid-state batteries.
Among them, the standard for solid-state battery is defined for the first time, which requires single cell energy density ≥ 300Wh/kg, battery pack energy density ≥ 260Wh/kg, cycle life ≥ 1000 times and capacity retention ≥ 80%.
Three months later, at the 16th Chongqing International Battery Technology Exchange Conference, Academician Ouyang gave a speech on “Industry-University-Research Cooperation to build China’s all-solid-state Battery Technology platform” and put forward some suggestions in his speech: he believes that China’s current development of all-solid-state batteries and landing industrialization in the near future (3-5 years) should be aimed at the goals of battery 300Wh/kg (weight specific energy) and 600Wh/L (volume specific energy).
Break through the full technology chain of all-solid-state batteries.
In the medium term (5 ~ 10 years), it should be aimed at 500Wh/kg and 1000Wh/L, and must be commercialized before 2035.
In the battery material system, we should focus on the negative electrode, which breaks through the lithium metal and takes into account silicon and carbon.
In addition to building confidence in China’s technological route from 300 to 500Wh/kg, Ouyang Minggao also believes that it is necessary to maintain advantages and prevent subversion.
“the positioning for Japan and Europe to develop all-solid-state batteries is not like this, but to subvert and subvert China.
On the contrary, we want to maintain advantages, prevent subversion, conquer all-solid-state, and optimize liquid lithium-ion batteries.
” I agree with Academician Ouyang on this point.
He said, “We can’t throw away liquid lithium-ion batteries.
Liquid lithium-ion batteries are our strengths and we will have to rely on this for decades to come.
” However, there are reservations about the view that the cost of all-solid-state batteries is expected to be as low as 0.
4 yuan / Wh (consider recycling).
At present, the capital market is also chasing the hot spot of solid-state battery.
According to the incomplete statistics of Polaris Energy Storage Network, so far this year, the solid-state battery industry chain has completed a total of 74 rounds of financing, involving 23 industrial chain enterprises, of which 10 enterprises completed 12 rounds of financing in 2024.
Lithium Energy and Yijin New Energy have completed two rounds of financing respectively.
The largest financing comes from Ruigu Xinneng, with an amount of more than 100 million yuan.
One after another, there was a scene of prosperity.
But what will be the specific outcome? I’m afraid only the enterprises themselves know that.
When it comes to the time of landing, it is also the pace of great work.
SAIC announced that the all-solid-state battery will be delivered to mass production in 2026 and a prototype test will be completed with an energy density of more than 400 watt-hours per kilogram, more than double that of conventional power batteries.
In 2027, the new Zhiji car with all-solid-state batteries will be mass produced and officially delivered to users.
In the follow-up, the energy density is expected to further increase to 500 Wh / kg.
In addition, GAC GROUP announced that the all-solid-state battery is scheduled to get on board in 2026, which will first be carried in the Haopin model.
Ningde Times also announced its all-solid-state battery development plan for the first time in April this year, and plans to achieve small batch production in 2027.
On May 17, Guoxuan Hi-Tech released a new all-solid-state battery product– Goldstone battery.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech said that its all-solid-state battery plans to carry out a small batch test in 2027, and if the test goes well, it will achieve mass production by 2030.
Although the mass production schedule of all-solid-state batteries has been advanced.
However, a very important point here is that many enterprises intentionally or unintentionally blur the line between semi-solid and all-solid, and have the idea and method of “fishing in troubled waters”.
This is the disadvantage of the enterprise marketing front.
Moreover, I am afraid that all kinds of landing time for mass production are a bit too optimistic.
02 plus semi-solid-state battery, the news of mass production of all-solid-state battery has been reported frequently, but it still belongs to the degree of “only the staircase sounds, but no one comes down”.
Relatively speaking, many companies are adding semi-solid batteries.
After all, semi-solid batteries are technically between traditional liquid batteries and solid-state batteries, and have some of the advantages of solid-state batteries, such as improved safety, enhanced low temperature resistance, and so on.
At the same time, the production process of semi-solid battery can be compatible with the original production line, and it is easier to commercialize in cost.
Moreover, semi-solid batteries are already in mass production.
According to incomplete statistics, more than 34 billion yuan of solid-state battery projects have been signed or started since 2024.
Among them, there are not only old enterprises, but also many new enterprises that have not been established soon, including lithium electricity and sodium electricity, involving cell, PACK and so on.
In addition, at present, more than a dozen power battery enterprises at home and abroad, including China New Airlines, Honeycomb Energy, Huineng Technology, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and so on, are arranging semi-solid batteries, each with its own plans.
In fact, battery giants such as Ningde era and BYD are not enthusiastic about all-solid-state batteries.
One reason is that it is too difficult.
Moreover, I don’t know if this is a game, but I think all-solid-state batteries violate the common sense of physics.
, I have also stated in many articles such as “Semi-solid-state batteries may be the end of electric vehicles”,”All-solid-state batteries, the” gap “is difficult to cross” and “Please, don’t brag about” solid-state batteries “” that all-solid-state batteries may just be a goal.
When semi-solid batteries achieve a balance between technology and cost, there is no need to build all-solid-state batteries.
Like the Ningde era, another path is also being explored.
Previously, Ningde Times released condensed state batteries, which can be mass-produced faster than solid-state batteries, and achieve both high specific energy and high safety.
The energy density can reach up to 500Wh/kg.
In May this year, BAIC Battery released three new semi-solid-state lithium battery series.
It is reported that BAK Power is planning a metal lithium negative semi-solid battery and plans to increase the energy density to 450Wh/kg by the end of 2024.
On May 24, SAIC Motor said that the Zhiji L6 equipped with the first generation of light-year semi-solid-state batteries will be officially delivered to users in October this year, with an energy density of more than 300Wh/kg and a cruising range of more than 1000 kilometers.
In March this year, Funeng Technology signed a contract for cooperation with FAW Jiefang.
Funeng Technology will be the first to introduce semi-solid-state batteries into FAW Jiefang commercial vehicle products and be the first to realize the semi-solid-state battery supporting commercial vehicle market on a global scale.
, It is worth noting that up to today, all-solid-state batteries and even semi-solid-state batteries are still unable to be commercially produced on a large scale, which shows how difficult it is to develop.
Therefore, some views like Wang Jiantao, deputy general manager of the Guolian Automotive Power Battery Research Institute, are actually very pertinent.
He said that interface problems have always been a difficult problem for all-solid-state batteries.
Currently, most research institutions mainly focus on the development of key materials and interface research.
Judging from these problems, there are many problems that need to be overcome to achieve large-scale loading of all-solid batteries in 2027.
Judging from the release, all-solid-state batteries are now only at the stage of technological accumulation in the front of industrialization.
Looking backwards, because loading will take place in 2027, the battery will definitely require SOP in 2026, and the prototype technology will be finalized in 2025, so there is not much time left for the company, that is, two years.
What can we do in two years? Right.
, In the final analysis, even by 2030, global demand for solid-state batteries is expected to exceed 200GWh, with a compound annual growth rate of 65.
8% from 2025 to 2030.
And, whether it is sulfides, oxides, polymers or even halides, there is still a long way to go before mass production of all-solid-state batteries.
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