It is another Chengdu auto show, another autumn tiger in southwest China, and a shortage of water and electricity.
Another year, start the country to make up for the elimination of old cars.
In this August of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology quietly launched a major regulation and control policy on the domestic automobile industry.
When there is a gust of wind and fire at home, it does not stop in the distance of the world.
In North America and Europe, crackdowns on Chinese new energy vehicles are accelerating.
Although all this is to be expected.
As the saying goes, “when it rains, the mother wants to marry”, but it is the objective law of the development of things.
But also in August, there was a surprise to everyone, or at least most people expected– a home-made 3A game called “Black Myth: Wukong”, which became popular unexpectedly but reasonably with its official launch at the end of the month, and swept every corner of the global Internet.
The sudden upsurge of traffic drowned everything we mentioned above, making the Chinese Internet a carnival sound.
, picture | as of 21:00 Beijing time on August 23rd.
As for the completion of this article, this number has reached an astonishing 15 million, and the probability will exceed 20 million.
On August 23, the third day after its official release, “Black Myth: Wukong” beat a large number of online games with the data of more than 2.
1 million people in the list of games on the STEAM platform, making it the second most popular game in history and the highest number of stand-alone games at the same time.
At 21:00 on the 23rd, the total sales of “Black Myth: Wukong” on various game platforms exceeded 10 million, making it the second fastest selling game in history.
In a sense, this is just as achieved by the automobile industry, the historical record of domestic vehicles exceeding 30 million last year, and the record of vehicle exports as high as 2.
93 million in the first half of this year.
If the achievements made by the automobile manufacturing industry in the past two years symbolize the embodiment of national strength in the hard power of the manufacturing industry, then there is a high probability that this game will eventually sell more than 20 million copies.
It is undoubtedly the latest achievement of soft power in the field of culture and entertainment in our country.
Some people may think that it is a bit strange to talk about games in an official account called “Automobile Commune”, which is mainly active in topics related to the automobile industry.
However, what I want to say is that in today’s China, many problems and phenomena have commonalities across industries and even fields.
For example, although China’s game industry and China’s automobile industry belong to the secondary and tertiary industries, they seem to be unrelated, but they actually have a large number of similar problems, such as the overall technical level of the industry still needs to be improved.
huge production capacity leads to an increasingly vicious price war, as well as increasingly cruel stock competition.
And even if it is specific to the game “Black Myth: Wukong” itself, the story described in the game plot, to a large extent, coincides with many of the current problems facing China’s automobile industry.
The game industry and the automobile industry did not want to do it, but some of the cores of “Black Myth: Wukong” accurately match the current and future problems facing the domestic automobile industry, as well as the urgent situation, especially, the meaning carried by the name of “black myth”-the cruel laws and dark systems hidden behind any magnificent narrative.
On August 15, just half a month ago, the announcement of the notice of seven departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and other seven departments on further doing a good job in the trade-in of cars, immediately aroused the attention of public opinion.
This is not to say that this kind of subsidy policy for scrapping used cars year after year is not worth making a fuss about.
The central focus of public concern is that this year’s notice adds a new category-or new energy passenger vehicles registered before April 30, 2018-after the first category of vehicles that can be subsidized after scrapping.
Car trade-in, in fact, officials do it every year, and local governments often give some extra subsidies.
However, this year’s phrase “or new energy passenger cars registered before April 30, 2018” has made everyone realize a lot of things, if calculated on April 29, 2018, the day before the deadline for beneficial registration of new energy passenger cars, by August 15, 2024, when the new notice is announced, it will be only six years and two and a half months.
Have the officials made it clear that the life of new energy vehicles is only more than six years? Such an extreme understanding is not even misinterpretation or misreading.
However, the public mood is also understandable.
After all, as far as fuel cars are concerned, not to mention six years, they have changed three or four hands since they were licensed for 16 years, and they are still in operation, and there are still many on the road.
But while understanding emotions and complaining about desires, there are some facts that we have to face.
Not long ago, a video entitled “hundreds of new energy vehicles abandoned wasteland” went viral on the Internet.
It is different from the old-fashioned “car-sharing platform went bankrupt and shared cars were casually dumped in the junkyard” a few years ago, because this time they were all new cars, or even, according to the video description, “new cars with no membrane torn.
It’s been parked for five years.
Some media followed the video and confirmed its claim.
People who know cars quickly recognize that the abandoned car belongs to the Tengli brand, but the old model that has been discontinued was originally directly called the B-class pure electric hatchback sedan.
And some people recognize that the video should be the “latest” generation-the 2018 450 / 500 model, which went on sale in March 2018.
Although the sales volume of the old momentum is not high, it is still a bit well-known.
Friends who like to watch New year’s movies will remember that the car even appeared on the screen at the beginning of 2020.
In “the good people of Beijing”, the first unit story of “me and my hometown”, it is what Uncle Ge You likes all the time saving money to start.
, picture | it is not a problem with the momentum brand or the old-fashioned momentum car, but the car endorsed by Uncle GE, which is hard not to be remembered.
The picture shows the plot unit stills of “the good people of Beijing” in the movie “me and my hometown”.
But after being on a New year’s drama, it is also difficult to change its abandoned fate.
After the video fermented into public opinion, the local street office responded that the cars were parked by local companies and 4S stores and had been ignored for a long time.
In fact, the reason for abandonment is not difficult to understand, because this car has long beenIt’s time to pass.
B-class size, single motor, high-end power 135kw, maximum torque 300N ·m.
With 70-degree battery, maximum speed 150km, zero 100 acceleration 10.
5 seconds Yes, in 2024, this is at best a pure electric A0 data.
If you don’t believe it, check the high-end version of dolphin data.
As for the popular brand N7 and N8, it has the general performance and configuration.
The reason why the two models Teng Teng N7 and N8 are mentioned here is that their starting price is similar to that of the abandoned “Old Teng Teng” in the hot spots, and the guidance price is the same as 300000 yuan.
In the past six years, domestic new energy vehicles have gone through that transition period-with a new architectural design, more efficient motors and mature iron phosphate / ternary lithium power batteries.
More importantly, from the cockpit to the auxiliary driving system has been fully intelligent, and through the OTA to continuously improve or even enhance the function.
But this kind of change is undoubtedly costly.
Anyone only needs to take a look at the list of new forces of domestic car companies in 2018 and compare it with today to have a general idea.
In six years, from “Britney Spears” to “Mrs.
Niu”, this is not the problem of cars, but the rapid development of the whole industry and technical standards.
To some extent, the rapid change of domestic automobile companies in the field of new energy vehicles is like a sense of perspective of the American automobile industry in the early 1920s, and the author believes that this “notice” is out of the goodwill of the competent authorities.
Perhaps those enterprises that were eliminated early in this mighty game cannot take care of them, but they should at least take proper care of those car owners who bought new energy vehicles early and made contributions to the industry with their real money and money.
The official “acceleration” came only a week after the previous “notice” was issued, and on August 21, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stepped in again.
But this time, what it throws out is a solicitation draft of a new national standard on automobile energy consumption.
This time the “opinion draft” is actually divided into two items.
The “evaluation method and index of fuel consumption of passenger vehicles” and the brand-new “energy consumption limit of electric vehicles part 1: passenger vehicles” are respectively adjusted to the national standard energy consumption of existing fuel vehicles.
The most straightforward explanation is that the fuel consumption standards of new fuel passenger cars on the market in the future will be more stringent, while electric passenger cars will also have an upper limit on power consumption.
The official indicator, at first glance, can be said to be quite scary– if the vehicle ready quality 𝐶𝑀≤ 1090, then: 𝑇 = 2.
57 𝐶𝑀≤, if 1090 < 𝐶𝑀≤ 2510, then: 𝑇 = 0.
0015 × (𝐶𝑀− 1580) + 3.
3, if 𝐶𝑀 > 2510, then: 𝑇 = 4.70. Don’t worry too much about the formula of dizziness above, since it has been stated that 𝐶𝑀 is the quality of the vehicle, T is the upper limit of fuel consumption.
The only trouble is that the quality of the equipment is more than 1.
09 tons but less than 2.
51 tons.
The fuel consumption data need to be weighted according to the actual vehicle weight.
If the weight is exactly 1.
58 tons, the upper limit of fuel consumption is 3.
3L per hundred kilometers.
In particular, given the official statement that the fuel consumption cap is based on the WLTC (World Light vehicle Test cycle) standard, it is hard not to marvel at the speed with which the world is changing.
Because the EU mandatory carbon emission standards, which were buzzed two or three years ago, seem a little conservative compared with them.
After all, the mandatory standard of 95 grams of carbon emissions per kilometer translates into fuel consumption, which can be equivalent to 4.
5 liters of fuel consumption of almost 100 kilometers.
The new standard ensures that this fuel-guzzling model will be a thing of the past, and some people interpret this new standard as forcing fuel cars to “exit”.
But I think this is wrong, because the new label does have an adaptation of “average corporate fuel consumption”.
This is actually a policy similar to “double points”, in which car companies can use more pure electric / hybrid models to offset the excess data of fuel models.
Only this time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology continues to “favor” new energy models, sharply lowering the upper limit of fuel consumption.
Therefore, the intention to guide the automobile industry to a comprehensive new energy transition is also very obvious.
The above is about fuel cars, but please don’t forget that there is also a “energy consumption limit for electric vehicles part 1: passenger cars”.
Similar to the more stringent fuel consumption curse enjoyed by fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles should also pay attention to energy consumption, which is also divided into 1.
09 tons, 1.
09 tons, 2.
71 tons and more than 2.
71 tons according to the quality of the equipment.
The first gear is 1.
09 tons, which is obviously aimed at A0 or even A00 cars.
It requires that the power consumption of Chinese light vehicles under the driving condition (CLTC) standard does not exceed 10.
1kW/100km.
From then on, “new energy” is no longer an amnesty for energy consumption, and electric vehicles must also comply with the national standard of power consumption.
The second gear 1.
09 to 2.
71 tons contains the vast majority of new energy models on the market, and its energy consumption formula is similar to that of fuel vehicles, which is 𝑇 = 0.
00556 × (𝐶𝑀− 1780) + 13.92. The third gear is above 2.
71t, and the power consumption requirement is not higher than that of 19.
1kW/100km.
After a simple conversion of the public data of various mainframe factories, the author is sure that most of the models on the market can pass the border safely.
Third gear aside, 19.
1kW/100km indicators can be called loose, even the polar krypton 009 this huge vehicle (the latest 2.783-2.906 tons, power consumption 16.8~17.8kW/100km) can easily pass.
Only many older models in the second gear and the first gear category just step on the red line and need to be upgraded and replaced while clearing inventory as soon as possible.
It is obvious that the intention of the two documents to accelerate the transition of the domestic automobile industry to comprehensive new energy is very clear.
And this time, the authorities no longer only regard quantity and proportion as the examination point, but put the requirement of “quality” in the first place.
There is no doubt that the combination of the two new regulations of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will have a new round of impact on the backward production capacity of the domestic automobile industry from the perspective of energy consumption.
in short, not only the production capacity of “Na Zhijie” will be eliminated in the future.
even if “Na Zhijie” changes to electric power, it will be the same treatment-no matter oil cars or trams, all “miscellaneous brands” are backward production capacity and need to exit as soon as possible.
Highlight the core idea of quality development.
As for who this “miscellaneous brand” is, or who is the popular “black myth: Wukong”– who is “Marlowe” and who is “destiny”, it still requires each family to rely on its own ability.
And these are for China’s auto market, which has been described as “anti-sky”.
Obviously, the market will further add fuel to the fire, which seems to be a serious departure from our understanding of the industry authorities so far.
But if you combine what is happening overseas, you will have a new understanding of this problem.
The end of the mythological era, from the end of 2022, the word “volume” has increasingly appeared in the description of the domestic automobile industry.
The so-called “volume” is actually an abbreviated expression of the professional academic term “inner volume”.
It was originally a professional translation of the concept of “involution” in European historical and sociological studies in China.
The original meaning means that after a certain culture or social model develops to the extreme stage, due to the lack of resources or channels to continue to break through, it is forced to be transformed into a state of withdrawal imbalance that can neither stabilize nor transform innovation.
With the huge automobile consumption market in China, after more than 20 years of full-speed development after entering the new century, the sign of “inner volume” is still inevitable.
After the increment disappears, all the competition turns to the competition for stock.
In order to grab the priority share, all competitors gradually invest far more resources than in the past, which finally makes the competition in the whole system tend to be vicious.
If we mentioned earlier that an electric car produced in 2018 was completely obsolete in just six years, it reflects only the imperfect trial and error products in the early days of the technological revolution, which does not meet the definition of “inner volume”.
So since the beginning of last year, and there is a growing trend of car price war is undoubtedly “volume” flavor.
There are also those operations that would rather step on other sub-brands in the group in order to maximize the competitiveness of their brands, and that infinitely close to the replacement cycle, regardless of the feelings of the old car owners who have already paid for it and the magical operation of the whole market.
Even, after the exhaustion of marketing means, car companies began to pursue the flow of various operations, there is no doubt that there has been a clear sign of “inner volume”.
Unexpectedly, car companies have begun to seek traffic economy, trying to open new sales breakthroughs from short video platforms, which in itself is the embodiment of anxiety about the market means “volume”.
In this era, Chinese automobile companies do not lack production capacity.
In fact, the problem of domestic automobile overcapacity and even production qualification began to emerge as early as ten years ago.
At last, China’s auto market is big enough, with total sales of more than 30 million vehicles last year, so that companies outside the list can still pursue a barely maintained common divisor.
More importantly, there were 5.
2 million car exports last year.
Even to some extent, the profits of many car companies that are in a weak position in the frenzied domestic competition are entirely maintained by vehicle exports.
It may be exaggerated to make money from abroad and subsidize domestic battles, but it is a statement of fact.
However, this difficult balance may soon be broken again.
Just a week ago, on Aug.
26, the Canadian government announced that it would impose a 100% tariff on all electric vehicles imported from China.
The only reason for this policy is that the Canadian government has always followed the instructions of the US government.
And now that the latter announced on May 14 that it would quadruple the tariff on imports of electric cars from China (from 27.
5% to 102.
5%), it is clear what Canada, the “52nd state” of the United States, will do.
Even though his term of office is coming to an end, he still does not forget to make trouble for China.
In fact, although there are huge contradictions between the two parties in the United States, anti-China is already its basic formula.
As for the servant countries of the United States, we cannot have any illusions.
On the other side of the world, Europe is also gradually erecting barriers to China’s new energy vehicles.
In fact, after the European Commission officially launched a countervailing investigation into pure electric vehicles imported from China on October 4 last year, everything is plummeting to the bottom.
There is no need to be delusional about whether things can be undone.
Because on July 5 this year, the European Commission, which could not wait, had already launched temporary special tariff measures against China in advance.
As for the 20th of this month, the European Commission openly disclosed to the public the details of the proposed final measures for the countervailing investigation of electric vehicles in China– the proposed countervailing duty of 17,36.
3% for pure electric vehicles produced by Chinese and EU enterprises in China.
The disclosure was accompanied by a special measure to impose a 9 per cent tariff on Tesla’s production of electric cars in China.
Although so far, the ones that have been thrown out for implementation are still “temporary special measures” or “proposals for arbitration measures”.
But everyone knows that unless there is an extremely serious accident, the above tariff barriers against China are bound to come down in October this year.
The European Parliament is a political arena with a high concentration of American agents, so there should be no illusions about the recent tariff conflicts, all of which make it clear that the era of international trade, which basically lived on the merits of its own products, is gone forever.
The myth of the era of globalization, which seems to be full of light and beauty, is coming to a complete end.
It is obvious that the authorities have expected this situation for a long time.
The author believes that this is the main reason for the introduction of “subsidies” and “notices”.
As for the follow-up, I believe that there will be more macro-guidance policies, will be introduced one by one.
While realizing the “double carbon” national strategy, we should try to squeeze and close those backward production capacity and transform them into innovation.
At this time, there is actually a more brutal choice-to guide the withdrawal and elimination of backward production capacity.
After all, automobile manufacturing and even its upstream industry chain and downstream sales are related to huge investment and huge cash flow, which can bring very good profits and provide a lot of jobs.
These are irresistible temptations for capital and even local governments.
After all, according to data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology a few years ago, there are 171 fuel vehicle manufacturers in China.
As for new energy car companies, according to the statistics of various analysis institutions, there are more than 500 during the peak period.
If something is destined to happen it is far better to respond actively than to accept it passively.
Today, the group of female porridge on the domestic Internet always denigrates the domestic automobile joint venture brand as the existence that needs to be overthrown.
However, in reality, most of the senior domestic auto people miss the golden age of joint ventures.
Because in that era, to a large extent, it is also like the telegram of Journey to the West, which was broadcast at about the same time.
The picture depicted by the video play.
The older generation of autobots will naturally regard the revolution that began in the mid-1980s and changed the destiny of China’s automobile industry as a way to “learn from the lessons” without really going west.
In order to obtain the “true scriptures” of modern manufacturing, we opened up the market, established joint ventures, and treated every foreign engineer and manager stationed in China with courtesy.
The subsequent process is similar to the experience of Xuanzang and his disciples in that story.
No matter how hard and aggrieved, bumpy and difficult it is, everyone is looking forward to ushering in a bright and brilliant future like in the story of “Journey to the West” after hard work and dedication.
You can achieve success and gain something through hard work.
This is a misunderstanding that many people have in that era of white mythology. Fig.| That dazzling “white myth” era will eventually come to an end with the growth of Sun Junkers, but the times have changed after all.
The pastoral era under the influence of “globalization” is destined to be gone forever.
The white myth is dying out.
What will follow will be the naked faces of those who benefit from the current order wrapped in gorgeous words and grand names.
With the wave of new energy and intelligence, in the second decade of the 21st century, China’s automobile manufacturing industry has fully emerged.
The result of different times is that the results that Chinese companies have achieved or are about to achieve through market rules and commercial competition have been exchanged for hostility and trade barriers, or even containment and suppression.
The reason why “Black Myth: Wukong” is “black” is because in the world of the Journey to the West in the game setting, there is no Great Sage Qi Tian who can retire unscathed and return to the mountains and forests after enlightenment.
Similarly, in reality, there will be no Chinese car company that can continue to work hard to make money with peace after growing.
Just as on the road to the scriptures and on the journey of touring the “Six Roots”, Sun Wukong and the destined person who inherited his legacy had to send many of his comrades and companions from the past on the road of no return.
Under the fierce battle of Involutions and the deliberate guidance of the government, how many domestic car companies will move into history.
“Brothers, drink this cup and let’s fight together to Soaring Heaven Palace!”, The sound of the Cloud Palace fell quickly and the moment the appointed person put down the wine bowl, the fleeting shadows of the past disappeared.
In the Water Curtain Cave, only a ground of broken soldiers remained.
Those comrades of the past have long disappeared into thin air.
, this scene, just as I don’t know and can’t bear to think, how many names and brands will eventually disappear in the history books of China’s automobile manufacturing industry.
However, Sun Wukong’s six roots have been gathered, and they have all returned to one with the experiences and memories of the Great Sage’s chaos in the underworld and the celestial palace, and the four master and disciple rode on the western heaven to learn scriptures.
After a slight hesitation and a moment of melancholy, the monkey swung his body and walked out of the cave.
The moment he captured the golden hoop stick from his ear, he was already the Great Sage Equaling Heaven–Since there is only one way, then go to the Lingxiao Palace!, Return to First Electric Network Home>.
