On April 2nd, Tesla released the global production and delivery report for the first quarter of 2024.
According to the data, Tesla’s actual delivery volume in the first quarter was 386800 vehicles, down 8.
5% compared with the same period in 2023 and 20.
2% compared with the fourth quarter of 2023.
Tesla’s performance fell well below analysts’ expectations, sending Tesla’s share price down 4.
9% on the day, wiping out $27.
36 billion (198 billion yuan) in a single day’s market capitalization.
Tesla also gave a clear explanation for the lower-than-expected results in the first quarter: first, the production capacity of the new Model 3 plant in Fremont, California, USA is still climbing.
first, environmentalists in Berlin set fire, which disrupted production in German factories.
and second, the Red Sea crisis led to a shortage of spare parts capacity.
However, such a reason did not convince investors and opened a “opposing model” with Musk.
, photo source: Tesla Weibo, Ross Gobber, CEO of Geber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management company, said: “Musk took full responsibility for Tesla’s poor performance in the first quarter.
” It was his’ harmful behavior ‘that caused Tesla’s car to fail to sell.
” Musk responded: “he is such an idiot that he doesn’t even know he is an idiot.
” BYD’s sales are down 42% from the previous quarter, which has been a tough quarter for everyone.
” As early as January this year, Tesla reminded investors that sales growth in 2024 will slow significantly as the next generation of cars are being developed.
In the 2023 earnings call, Musk reiterated that Tesla is currently in the interval between two major growth peaks.
He revealed that the next generation of cars is expected to go into production in the second half of 2025.
On the one hand, it was the first to issue a warning of a decline in sales, while on the other hand, BYD was pulled out as the back, but Musk’s series of actions failed to stop “Wall Street” from being pessimistic about Tesla.
Tesla’s share price has fallen 29% so far this year, the biggest quarterly decline since it went public in 2010.
In the view of “Wall Street”, the slowdown in the development of the electric car market is the biggest problem Tesla faces.
In addition to China, the development of electric vehicles has slowed down.
recently, many countries have changed their previous aggressive promotion strategies for electric vehicles, including the United States.
In late March, the U.S. Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency released new standards for the automotive industry.
Among them, the US Department of Energy announced the relaxation of average fuel economy standards, allowing automakers to stop clinging to the mass production of pure electric models, slowing the pace of car electrification.
However, the “2027-2032 emission standards for passenger cars, light trucks and medium-sized vehicles” announced by the US Environmental Protection Agency does not give more encouragement and support to the electrified transformation of cars, no matter in terms of limiting the target time or encouraging the adoption of vehicle models.
Elizabeth Elizabeth Krear, vice president of electric vehicles at J.D. Power, a US auto industry research firm, said problems in the US electric car industry had reduced interest in electric cars for the fifth month in a row.
Now, only 23% of car buyers say they are likely to consider buying electric cars.
Photo: Tesla Weibo, while in September last year, British Prime Minister Sunak announced that the ban on fuel vehicles would be postponed from 2030 to 2035.
On the one hand, the relevant policies are relaxed, and on the other hand, many traditional carmakers, such as Ford, GM, Mercedes-Benz and Jaguar Land Rover, are also scaling back or postponing their electric vehicle plans.
This series of changes have also triggered a great discussion in Europe and the United States about giving up electric cars, and Tesla, who is committed to popularizing electric cars, has naturally become the main target of being bearish.
According to the global production and delivery report released by Tesla in 2023, Tesla produced a total of about 1.
85 million electric vehicles worldwide and delivered about 1.
81 million electric vehicles last year, an increase of about 35% and 38% respectively over the same period last year.
The United States and China, as Tesla’s main markets, sold 654000 and 603000 vehicles respectively.
Unlike the expected slowdown in the US market for electric vehicles, China is accelerating the promotion of new energy industries.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2023 were 9.
587 million and 9.
495 million respectively, an increase of 35.
8% and 37.
9% over the same period last year.
China’s new energy industry is growing steadily.
Although the development of new energy in China is improving, it is full of fierce market competition, and almost all electric car companies regard Tesla as the object of competition and surpassing.
Even the newly listed Xiaomi SU7 has made it clear that it wants to match the Model 3.
With Lei Jun’s outstanding marketing ability, the order of Xiaomi SU7 reached 88879 in just one day, which put pressure on a number of competitors.
On April 1st, just three days after the listing of Xiaomi SU7, many brands, such as Polar Krypton, Mengjie, Xiaopeng, Ulai, Ji Yue, and so on, started to reduce prices in various forms, but Tesla raised the price of Model Y by 5000 yuan on the same day.
From Tesla’s point of view, the failure to raise the price of Model 3 is already a respect for Xiaomi SU7.
Different from the decline in the consumption power of electric vehicles in other markets around the world, Tesla has to “compete with wolves” in the Chinese market, and domestic electric car enterprises are gradually surpassing Tesla by constantly pushing through the old and bringing forth the new and upgrading.
Tesla’s position in the Chinese market is becoming more and more passive.
Model 2 and FSD are Tesla’s life-saving straws.
From the perspective of product power alone, Tesla’s product advantage has been greatly reduced.
In the case of continuous internal volume in the domestic market, stack configuration has long become the main means for automobile companies to build product competitiveness.
At present, high-end configurations such as 800V high-voltage platform and air suspension have sunk to the 200000 level market.
According to the statistics of Geshi Automotive Research Institute, in 2023, the penetration rate of 800V high-voltage platform for domestic passenger cars is 4.4%. With the maturity of the overcharging industry chain, the starting price of 800V high-voltage fast charging this year is expected to drop to class 150000 models.
Source: Tesla Weibo, while Model 3 and Model Y still use 400V platform.
at basically the same price, more consumers are choosing domestic models with 800V high voltage platform.
In the Chinese market, the competitiveness of Tesla’s two main models is declining sharply, and the lower price of the Model 2 and more advanced FSD-assisted driving system may be the key to rescuing Tesla.
At present, Tesla’s autopilot products are mainly divided into three categories, namely AP,EAP and FSD.
, AP, is the most basic version, free and standard, can be used in the domestic market.
EAP, in order to enhance driving assistance, add on the basis of APSmart phone summoning, automatic parking, NOA and other functions, the price is 32000 yuan.
FSD, whose main functions include navigation assisted driving (NOA), automatic lane change, automatic parking, intelligent summoning, traffic signal recognition, automatic urban road steering (based on navigation route), etc.
, have not yet entered the Chinese market.
In the eyes of many people in the technology circle, FSD is synonymous with the highest standard of assisted driving system.
If FSD enters the Chinese market, it will have an adverse impact on car companies that mainly assist driving, such as Mengjie, Huawei brands such as Avita, and Xiaopeng Motor.
The performance of FSD in China is unknown for the time being, but it is an indisputable fact that it has long been well-known in the auxiliary driving industry.
It is not difficult to imagine that at the moment when FSD officially enters China, Model 3 and Model Y will be crowned as a leading assistant driver, and the competitiveness of their products will also be enhanced rapidly.
In addition to FSD’s halo of high-performance driving assistance, the lower price of Model 2 is also the key for Tesla to improve market performance.
Musk had previously revealed that the Model 2 would guarantee that the compact car would be self-driving at half the price of the Model 3.
Low price, the ability to apply FSD, coupled with the blessing of Tesla’s overcharged network, Model 2 is expected to repeat the difficult situation of Model 3 and Model Y in the market range of less than 200000.
Although a large number of domestic car companies are accelerating the promotion of urban NOA functions, they are mainly concentrated in more than 200000 of the market range.
If the low price of Model 2 can superimpose the halo of FSD, it will certainly trigger a wave of consumption boom.
In addition to having a lead in assisted driving, Model 2 also has advantages in the charging experience.
Different from the way that domestic car companies use high voltage to improve charging speed, Tesla uses high current to enhance the charging experience.
Tesla super charging pile can reach a maximum current of 1200 amperes and a power of 250KW.
With the support of high current technology, even if Tesla uses 400V platform, its charging speed is still comparable to that of many models equipped with 800V high voltage platform.
Photo: Tesla Weibo.
Tesla announced on November 1 last year that it had installed more than 1800 supercharging stations in the Chinese market, covering 100% of Chinese mainland provincial capitals and municipalities directly under the Central Government.
Such a perfect overcharge network allows Model 2 to show a leading edge in products at the same price.
After all, it will take time for domestic brands to lower 800V high voltage platforms to the 150000 model range and build 800V high voltage charging stations covering the whole country.
Once launched, Model 2 will be in the lead, thus replicating the glory of Model 3 in the past.
From the perspective of global development, Tesla should pay full attention to the Chinese market.
The steady development of China’s new energy market can provide sufficient growth space for Tesla.
From the perspective of the development of the Chinese market, at a time when domestic brands are developing, Tesla should quickly introduce FSD and quickly launch Model 2.
If domestic brands have popularized 800V high-voltage platforms on 150,000-level products, and the experience of FSD in the Chinese market can not be widened with Huawei and Xiaopeng, Tesla will become a thing of the past.
Next, whether Tesla can grasp the time difference of this “off-peak development” is the key to whether he can get rid of the predicament.
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