According to Reuters, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on a recent third-quarter earnings conference call that with Tesla’s upcoming more affordable new models and consumers ‘enthusiasm for autonomous driving software, the company’s car sales next year will increase by 30% year-on-year.
However, Tesla’s expectation surprised investors and analysts.
Even if Tesla can fulfill this promise, Wall Street will be surprised.
Model Y.
Photo source: Tesla, Musk’s expectations for Tesla’s sales next year and an increase in third-quarter profit margins have pushed Tesla’s share price to its largest one-day gain since May 2013, when Tesla announced its first quarterly profit, greatly encouraging investors to believe that although Musk is developing driverless taxis that will take years to launch, he is still focusing on Tesla’s basic business.
, However, analysts and automotive industry experts say Tesla is facing challenges such as declining demand due to a scarcity and aging model, slowing global electric vehicle sales growth and intensified competition in key markets such as China and the United States.
As a result, Musk’s forecast that Tesla’s sales will grow by 20% to 30% next year is about twice what Wall Street expects.
After Musk’s forecast, Deutsche Bank predicted that even if Tesla launches new models and upgraded Model Y models priced at less than $30,000, Tesla’s sales next year will increase by only 12% year-on-year.
Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada maintain Tesla’s forecast for a 13% sales growth rate next year.
Sam Fiorani, vice president of research firm AutoForecast Solutions, said: “Even if Tesla launches new models with lower costs, no analyst will agree that Tesla will achieve a 20% year-on-year growth in sales next year.
Since the beginning of this year, except for the third quarter, Tesla’s product demand has been slowing down.
Sales growth in one quarter alone does not constitute an overall growth trend.
“, Tesla has not responded to requests for comment in response to the above reports.
, In recent years, global electric vehicle sales growth has failed to meet people’s high expectations and the growth rate has slowed down, but at the same time, competition in the electric vehicle market has intensified.
The International Energy Agency estimates that global electric vehicle sales this year will increase by approximately 23% year-on-year to 17 million units, a growth rate lower than last year’s 35% and more than 50% in 2021.
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