“mixing is just excessive technology, and pure electricity is the ultimate goal.
” This is the mainstream view in the industry at the beginning of the new energy market.
under the influence of this view, traditional car companies have opened the exploration of “oil to electricity”, while new forces have directly cut into the pure electricity market to seize the first opportunity.
Although there are more and more pure electric models for consumers to choose from, many consumers are still plagued by factors such as difficulty in charging and anxiety about battery life, coupled with the exit of new energy subsidies and the decline in competitiveness.
as a result, more and more consumers have turned their attention to hybrid models, and brands such as Zero, Nezha and Avita have also launched extended-range models in order to quickly realize the comprehensive layout from pure electricity to hybrid.
According to data from the Federation of passengers, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in the first seven months of this year were 4.
321 million, an increase of 27.
6% over the same period last year, of which the cumulative sales of pure electric vehicles were 3.
039 million, up 5.
5% year-on-year and 1.
282 million (including growth programs), an increase of 80.
1% over the same period last year.
Hybrid models are on the track of rapid growth.
The same story may happen again in the field of semi-solid state batteries.
Similar to the shift from hybrid models to being taken seriously, semi-solid batteries have a tendency to become the new darling of the market.
But at present, the influence of semi-solid battery is not strong, first, because many models equipped with semi-solid battery advertise under the name of solid-state battery, which is easy to cause disgust.
Second, the early performance of models with semi-solid batteries is not outstanding, did not trigger a market boom.
, figure source: clear pottery energy, semi-solid battery is the intermediate form of the transformation from liquid battery to solid-state battery, which is mainly distinguished according to the form of electrolyte.
at present, mainstream lithium batteries use liquid electrolyte plus lithium salt.
all-solid-state batteries do not add any electrolyte, using pure solid-state electrolytes.
Semi-solid and quasi-solid-state batteries, which are partially added with liquid electrolyte, are the “compromise” on the way to all-solid-state batteries.
The development process of electrolyte from liquid to solid state is the result of the battery industry’s pursuit of high energy density and high safety.
All-solid-state battery is also considered as the ultimate solution in the battery industry, but it has been slow to get on the bus because of the problem of mass production.
In this context, the semi-solid state battery has the opportunity to shine.
The mass production of all-solid-state battery is difficult, and semi-solid-state battery is favored.
“there are many basic scientific and technological problems of solid-state battery that have not been solved.
Our company has been ploughing for more than 10 years, but we still think that it is difficult to form products with technical feasibility and market competitiveness.
” Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times, once said so.
Similar to Zeng Yuqun’s view, Henrik Fisker, founder of Fisker, said, “solid-state battery is such a technology, when you think you have achieved 90%, almost reached the goal, and then you realize that the remaining 10% is much more difficult than the previous 90%.
” On the one hand, the industrial chain is facing the problem of mass production, and on the other hand, many car companies have also announced their own solid-state battery production schedule.
Among them, Nissan, the most radical, will start trial production in 2025 and mass production in 2028.
Toyota, together with the Japanese energy company, announced that it will start solid-state battery production from 2027 to 2028.
Mercedes-Benz has set a production target for 2030.
Volkswagen uses its battery company PowerCo to introduce solid-state battery technology in partnership with American all-solid-state battery developer QuantumScape.
At present, the common solid-state batteries are mainly divided into three types, namely, polymer, oxide and sulfide solid-state batteries, which are mainly distinguished according to the difference of electrolytes.
the three kinds of solid-state batteries have their own advantages and disadvantages.
Polymer electrolytes are generally formed by the complexation of polymers and lithium salts with a small amount of inert fillers, which are essentially close to the current liquid electrolytes, and have the advantages of easy synthesis and processing, good mechanical properties and good flexibility.
it can be compatible with the existing liquid electrolyte production process, and the technology is the most mature.
However, the conductivity of polymer solid electrolyte at room temperature is not high, it needs to be heated to 60 degrees to work normally, and the stability is not too good, it can not adapt to high voltage cathode materials, and combustion will occur at high temperature.
the improvement of the overall performance of polymer solid electrolytes is limited and the potential is not high.
Oxide electrolytes are compounds containing lithium, oxygen and other components (which can be phosphorus, titanium, aluminum, lanthanum, germanium, zinc and zirconium).
They can be divided into crystalline and amorphous types.
The conductivity of oxide solid electrolyte is higher than that of polymer and lower than that of sulfide.
it has both mechanical stability and electrochemical stability.
The disadvantage is that it is not easy to be sintered, and the oxide electrolyte needs to be sintered at a high temperature of more than 800 degrees before it can be compacted.
In addition, there is a rigid interface contact problem, high brittleness and difficult to process.
Sulfide solid electrolyte is the best solid electrolyte material in theory at present.
Compared with the existing lithium ion batteries, the advantage of sulfides is the energy density, which can easily exceed three times that of ternary batteries.
It is considered to have the greatest potential for development.
Sulfides are derived from oxide solid electrolytes, and sulfur replaces oxygen.
Similarly, it is also divided into crystalline and amorphous.
The sulfide solid electrolyte has the highest electrical conductivity, but its thermal stability is poor, and it is easy to react with water and oxygen in the air to produce highly toxic hydrogen sulfide gas.
in addition, the sulfide has poor compatibility with cathode materials and poor stability to lithium metals.
will react, resulting in the loss of ionic conductivity.
Toyota, LG, Panasonic and other enterprises have chosen the sulphide solid electrolyte with the highest difficulty in research and development and the greatest market potential, which will form a high technical barrier once broken through.
However, most domestic battery manufacturers choose the route of oxide electrolytes.
in practical application, many players combine polymer and oxide to produce on a large scale in the form of semi-solid batteries.
The pattern of the solid-state battery market is quite similar to that of the intelligent driving industry.
The direct layout of all-solid-state batteries by Japanese car companies is like a smart car company with leapfrog development directly into L4, while semi-solid batteries are more likely to choose the L2 gradual development model, which is more in line with the domestic market-driven development pattern.
As early as 2021, Dongfeng Motor and Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. jointly developed 50 Dongfeng Fengshen E70 with semi-solid batteries as a pilot demonstration.
Then Lantu Yuguang, which is equipped with semi-solid battery, also appeared on the market at the end of 2022.
It is worth noting that Lantu Yuguang’s semi-solid battery has an energy density of only 170Wh/kg, which is no different from the traditional liquid battery, and the advantages of semi-solid battery have not been shown.
Until the end of 2023Li Bin drove an ET7 equipped with a 150kWh battery pack and drove continuously for more than a thousand kilometers before the advantages of semi-solid batteries were revealed.
In April, the Zhiji L6 was officially launched.
The car is equipped with a 133kWh semi-solid battery (about 10% semi-liquid electrolyte) with an energy density of 368Wh/kg.
The Zhiji L6 has a range of more than 1000 km under CLTC conditions.
The arrival of Zhiji Automobile and Zhiji L6 has set off a round of discussion on solid-state battery and semi-solid-state battery standards in the industry.
On the one hand, Zhiji claims that the practice of carrying solid-state batteries in the L6 has aroused the dissatisfaction of competitive products, on the other hand, it also makes the market see the potential for the development of solid-state batteries.
Fengshen, Lantu, Ulai, Zhiji and other brands with semi-solid battery models on the market, which means that behind Ganfeng lithium industry, Funeng technology, Weilan new energy and Qingtao energy semi-solid battery products are approaching maturity, with the passage of time, there will be more and more models equipped with semi-solid batteries.
The development of semi-solid battery is the best solution for the current new energy industry.
From a global perspective, the direct layout of solid-state batteries by large enterprises such as Toyota, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz and LG has the potential to block the development of China’s new energy industry, but in fact, the results are not entirely satisfactory, of which the most key factor is cost.
As we all know, the automobile industry is an industry with high requirements for large-scale production, and large-scale reduction of battery cost is also the only way to promote the development of new energy industry.
At present, it seems that the solid-state batteries planned by overseas manufacturers will be mass-produced between 2028 and 2030, because overseas consumers’ demand for electric vehicles is not high, and overseas battery manufacturers still have time to polish their solid-state battery products.
According to data, sales of pure electric vehicles in Japan in 2023 were 79198, up 2.
5% from a year earlier.
In the first half of this year, 950000 electric cars were registered in Europe, up 2 per cent from a year earlier.
Apart from the Chinese market, overseas consumers’ recognition of electric vehicles is not high.
Combining the state of the new energy market with the mass production schedule of solid-state batteries, it is not difficult to find that Toyota, Nissan and other manufacturers’ layout of solid-state battery models is consistent with the pace of overseas new energy development.
If they take the lead in the solid-state battery field, it will certainly deal a fatal blow to the independent brand new energy going out to sea.
In order to break this pattern, China must take the lead in realizing the mass production of semi-solid-state batteries.
On the one hand, it can reduce the cost of solid-state batteries through the mode of gradual development, on the other hand, it can also narrow the performance gap with models equipped with all-solid-state batteries.
Take the 150kWh battery package made by Weilan New Energy as an example, the energy density of the battery is 360Wh/kg and its life cycle is 600.
according to the measured full charge of 1044 km, the whole life cycle can be used for a total of 600000 km, which can easily meet the car needs of ordinary consumers.
Tu Yuan: Wei Lai, but its extremely high cost is also prohibitive.
Qin Lihong, president of Weilai, once revealed to the media that the cost of a 150kWh battery pack is equivalent to that of a Xilai ET5, that is, nearly 300000 yuan.
Due to the high cost, the battery pack adopts the mode of “rent only but not sale” and is incorporated into the energy supplement system of Lulai.
From June 1, 2024, it is officially open to make an appointment for the owner of the car.
The cost of the 150kWh battery pack will gradually decrease with the increase of the scale of mass production.
The mass production process from the laboratory to the market is a must for every new technology.
Toyota, Nissan and other foreign companies bet on all-solid-state batteries, also need to go through the process of production and cost reduction, and this time difference is the opportunity for the rapid development of domestic manufacturers.
From the point of view of the development of the battery industry, it is almost impossible to launch a perfect solution at a certain time, but to continuously improve the manufacturing capacity, material performance and performance-to-price ratio combined with the market condition.
in order to achieve more long-term goals.
, figure source: Weilan new energy website screenshot, at present, this law of development and the domestic new energy market, gradually upgrade from liquid battery to semi-solid battery and then develop into all-solid-state battery development trend is complementary.
This phased approach to mass production is also quite friendly to “new companies” that need financing, operation, and survival, such as Qingtao Energy and Weilan New Energy.
In addition, semi-solid batteries have higher energy density and better safety than liquid batteries, which helps to enhance the consumer experience.
Generally speaking, the domestic market has formed a favorable ecology of the whole chain of semi-solid battery research, production and sale.
under this macro background, seizing the opportunity to establish competitive advantage is the best time for China’s new energy industry to take the lead again in the solid-state battery era.
From this point of view, the industry should give semi-solid battery more room for development, let more consumers clear the advantages of semi-solid battery, and promote the healthy development of the whole industry.
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