32.
80%, 35.
80%, 41.
60%, 43.
70%, 47.
00%, 48.
40%, 51.
10%, 53.
90%, 53.
30%, 52.
70%, 52.30%. I believe most readers will be puzzled by the series of numbers thrown out at the beginning of the article and can’t help but wonder what this is.
As for the answer, it is very simple: “Retail penetration of new energy vehicles since January-November this year.
” In other words, there is no one of the best anchors to observe the process of oil-electricity conversion in China’s auto market.
In fact, as early as the beginning of the year, Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, threw out his judgment: “the retail penetration of new energy vehicles in a single month will certainly break the 50% mark.
” As soon as this remark came out, it was instantly criticized in the face.
But in the end, the dazzling report card seemed to let the doubts go away.
In fact, the above key data have steadily crossed the 50% mark since July, and new energy vehicles have really begun to become a “mainstream choice” for end consumers compared with traditional fuel vehicles.
From 32.
80% in January to 51.
10% in July, retail penetration skyrocketed by 20% in just six months.
The reason behind this must have something to do with the change in awareness of potential customers, the strong support of policies and the increasingly crazy innovation and iteration of mainframe manufacturers, especially independent brands.
Layers of superposition, catalysis and boost, together contributed to the prosperity of the whole market.
However, if you continue to focus on the series of figures at the beginning of the article, it is clear that after the retail penetration of new energy vehicles reached 51.
10% in July, the growth rate slowed rapidly from August to November, even a slight decline at the month-on-month level.
There are signs that oil-electricity conversion has slowly entered the so-called “stalemate” after a period of high-speed change.
The collapse of traditional fuel vehicles, under the threat of a price war, did not come so quickly.
Instead, try your best to hold on to what you have left.
New energy vehicles want to continue to destroy the city, it is much more difficult than expected.
It is precisely against this background that another topic worthy of discussion goes to the front of the stage: “what do you think the corresponding retail penetration will be next year?”.
Standing at that node at that time it might feel a little radical.
But with the mainframe factory, which describes itself as the “global leader in new energy vehicles”, it just welcomed the offline of 10 million new energy vehicles not long ago.
In the face of the irresistible tide of transformation, as well as the greater qualitative changes caused by the successful completion of quantitative changes.
With a little overview, I suddenly feel that Wang Chuanfu’s prediction is even a little too conservative.
As an argument take October as an example.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, a total of 1.
931 million self-branded passenger cars were sold, accounting for 70.
1% of the total passenger car sales, an increase of 10.
4% over the same period last year.
Correspondingly the gradual decline in the share of joint venture brands in China is a foregone conclusion.
Continue to take January to October this year as an example, German, American, Japanese, and Korean data are only 14.9%, 6.5%, 11.
2%, and 1.
6%, respectively.
Among them, the “collapse” of the Japanese system is particularly obvious, and the situation of the American system and the Korean system is even more severe.
Next year, according to the state of the whole market, the share of independent brands will steadily exceed 70%, which can be said to be almost certain.
On the contrary, the retail penetration of new energy vehicles is indeed deadlocked around 53%, but the established strategies and sales targets of many top players can be described as ambitious, and they are very determined to be electrocuted to the end.
In addition, the high probability at the national policy level will be the steady escort of new energy vehicles, as well as its occupation of the mental level of potential passengers, will also become more and more indestructible.
If you don’t blow or blacken, you always feel that it won’t be a big problem to break through 60%.
As a reference, Norway has grown from 20% in 2018 to 90% today, which is such a growth path.
” There is no doubt that a paragraph of words seems to reflect Li Bin’s optimism.
If the above figures can be reached next year there will be a greater qualitative change in China’s auto market.
And the biggest chain reaction is undoubtedly concentrated in: the long elimination list, the emergence of more and more weak independent and joint venture brand names.
Because in the era of electrification resources have been gradually concentrated and winners take all.
With the sudden development of the front runner, the heavy pursuers are doomed to be pulled further and further away.
I think there is no problem for China’s new car sales to stabilize at 24 million.
Another opportunity comes from overseas exports.
In the end, my judgment is that China’s car exports will reach about 15 million vehicles a year.
So the total annual plate is about 40 million.
The number of vehicles worldwide is 90 million a year, accounting for about 40 per cent of the total.
Our main competitors are Japanese and Korean brands, whose global share has always been around 40%.
In China’s auto market, Japanese and Korean brands must be untenable.
” I don’t know how most readers will feel when they see these three high energy density outputs.
Anyway, at least from the author’s point of view, it is exciting enough.
After years of continuous ploughing, Chinese cars have really stood up.
Although the next road will still be full of challenges, I believe it will be overcome one by one.
And in the process of global development, new energy vehicles must also be in the vanguard.
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