At the moment, 2024 is drawing to a close.
If I want to use one sentence to describe the Chinese car market in my eyes, it is: “the speed of electrification transformation has far exceeded everyone’s expectations, and the process of the rise of new energy vehicles has been greatly advanced.
” With retail penetration breaking the 50 per cent mark for the first time in July, the so-called inflection point has officially arrived.
” Little did you realize that the key data continued to show good performance in the past November, reaching 52.
3% according to the statistics of the Federation of passengers, an increase of 12 percentage points over the same period last year.
It is precisely against this background that I recall the view of Li Bin, CEO of Weilai, which caused great controversy a few years ago: “I don’t understand why people still buy fuel cars.
” I suddenly found that there was nothing wrong with the truth itself but that the node was thrown too early.
For now, there is no doubt that it speaks out the aspirations of many “defected” new energy vehicle users, and some things cannot be returned after being used.
In terms of commuting, compared with traditional fuel cars, the protagonist of today’s article is obviously better in terms of driving comfort and intelligent experience, including the very important economy.
With the continuous improvement of product stability and maturity, consumers seem to make a choice with bright real gold and silver.
In the following space, in addition to the retail penetration of new energy vehicles, I also want to talk about some trend things through the November terminal report card.
When retail for the first time exceeded 1.
2 million vehicles in a single month, without saying much, it went directly to the result.
In November, the production of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.
481 million, up 49.
3 percent from the same period last year and 7.
1 percent from the previous month.
From January to November 2024, the cumulative production of new energy passenger vehicles reached 10.
727 million, an increase of 37.
0% over the same period last year.
In November, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.
438 million, up 49.
6% from the same period last year and 4.
9% from the previous month.
From January to November 2024, the cumulative wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 10.
716 million, an increase of 38.
1% over the same period last year.
In November, retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 1.
268 million, an increase of 50.
5% year-on-year and 5.
9% month-on-month.
From January to November 2024, the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 9.
594 million, an increase of 41.
2 percent over the same period last year.
To be sure, the exaggerated growth of the above three sets of data has shown the madness of the “electric shock” of the Chinese car market.
Retail sales in a single month broke the 1.
2 million mark for the first time, which proved the rise of new energy vehicles with another set of results full of gold.
At the same time, it is worth sharing that the wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 48.
9% in November, up 11 percentage points from 37% in November 2023.
Among them, the wholesale penetration rate of independent brand new energy passenger vehicles reached 64.7%. In November, the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles reached 832000, up 27.
7% from the same period last year and 7.
1% from the previous month.
the wholesale sales of narrow-sense blends reached 475000 in November, up 112.
5% from the same period last year and 0.
7% from the previous month.
and the wholesale sales of Zengji reached 130000 in November, up 52.
3% from the same period last year and 7.
8% from the previous month.
In November, in the wholesale structure of new energy passenger cars, pure electric accounted for 58%, narrow mixing accounted for 33%, and added programs accounted for 9%.
For reference, in November 2023, pure electric accounted for 68%, narrow mixing accounted for 23%, and added programs accounted for 9%.
Anyway, I still have that point of view, “who is in explosive growth is clear at a glance, the next Chinese car market must be multiple technological paths in parallel, and it is impossible for a single company to dominate.
” even do not rule out the possibility of pure electric power, narrow sense mixing and adding programs to achieve a third of the world.
” So only the brands that dabble widely can grow into giants.
Simply bet on one plate, it is very easy to fall into the bottleneck of development.
In addition the number of models whose wholesale sales passed the 20,000 mark increased to 31 this past November.
The top 10 are: 118743 BYD Song, 56459 BYD Seagull, 50500 BYD Qin L, 47030 BYD Seal 06, 46595 Tesla Model Y, 37518 Qirui Tiger 7, 37236 Wuling Hongguang MINI, 36911 Wuling Colored fruits, 36546 BYD Qin and 36177 Chirui Tiger 8.
The next 10 cars are: 32498 BYD yuan, 32261 Tesla Model 3, 31434 Volkswagen Longyi, 31230 Changan CS75, 30507 Geely Xingyue, 30467 BYD Han, 29120 Nissan Xuanyi, 28,622 Volkswagen Passat, 24575 Toyota RAV4, 24435 Volkswagen Quoteng.
The next eleven were: 24344 of BYD destroyer 05, 24318 of ideal L6, 24070 of BYD Yuan UP, 23156 of Xiaomi SU7, 22548 of Volkswagen Tuguan, 22345 of Geely Boyue, 21712 of BYD Dolphin, 20,865 of Volkswagen Mountain Exploration, 20,494 of Honda CR-V, 20101 of Jetway X70 and 20038 of Geely Star wish.
In the face of such a result on the one hand I could not help sighing that thanks to the policy boost and the crazy innovation of the main engine factory the Chinese car market was buoyant throughout November.
On the other hand, it must be admitted that new energy vehicles, led by BYD and Tesla, have slowly mastered the absolute initiative.
Of the 31 models with wholesale sales of more than 20,000 vehicles, “electrocuted” contestants account for half.
The top five are firmly swept by them.
This mental war in full swing has achieved phased results.
It is still too early to talk about winning streetcars.
At the beginning of this year, when BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu gave his prediction, “the retail penetration of new energy vehicles in a single month will certainly pass the 50% mark.
” In an instant, it was questioned and even criticized by many people.
But near the end of the year, with the results to look back at his judgment, there is no doubt that it is fully forward-looking.
However, for the further split of the key data, from 51.
10% in July to 53.
90% in August, to 53.
30% in September, to 52.
70% in October, and to 52.
30% in November, we can obviously find that after crossing the 50% mark, we did not usher in a curve that continued to rise, but began to decline somewhat.
In other words, smart electric cars have indeed changed and become the so-called “mainstream”, but the resistance of traditional fuel cars is still very stubborn.
The two seem to have entered a stalemate.
This situation also proves the complexity and diversity of the demand of China’s auto market, which gives some traditional brands a respite.
Of course I can foreseeWhat is more, the above-mentioned “balance” will eventually be broken, and the continued defeat of traditional fuel vehicles will come at some point next year.
As for why he is very certain, one of them is related to the Matthew effect caused by new energy vehicles.
More and more users, especially young people, have completely and thoroughly chosen to “get an electric shock” from the first new car they come into contact with in their lives.
In other words, traditional fuel vehicles have long disappeared completely from their vocabulary.
, , , and I believe that as time goes by, similar phenomena will definitely become more common.
, Second, in this “revolution”, if extended-range models are also regarded as a category of plug-in models, then the offensive jointly promoted by this group is really too fierce.
At one time, I always thought it was a “transition plan”, but in the end, I suddenly realized that they were the “new force” to transform those diehards in the true sense.
Last night, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released another new car catalog.
In addition to the Xiaomi YU7, new energy vehicles with “fuel tanks” account for a large proportion, and even the Zunjie S800 is “walking on two legs”.
, and what I feel more is that advances in technology have greatly increased the comprehensive strength of plug-in and range-extension, continuing to reduce dimensions towards traditional fuel vehicles, and also giving consumers who have always had inherent prejudice against pure electricity but want to embrace new energy vehicles a final destination.
Next year, while crushing traditional fuel vehicles, it is not impossible for the two to surpass pure electricity in terms of share.
At this point, the article is gradually coming to an end.
The last thing I want to say is: “China’s new energy market in 2024 has indeed brought huge surprises.
Next, a decisive battle on the pattern officially began.
“, , 2025 will only be more suffocating.
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