“I don’t understand who is still buying gas cars.
” In the exclusive interview after 2022 NIO Day, Li Bin, the founder of Xilai and CEO, directly put forward the view that the opening chapter triggered heated discussion in the whole industry, and even suffered fierce criticism.
And his original intention is simply to express the comprehensive experience of intelligent electric vehicles, which has become mature in multi-dimensions and surpassed the competition for oil vehicles of the same level.
However, there has been a serious misunderstanding in the outside world.
Finally, in an exclusive interview two years later, perhaps for fear of being sprayed to pieces again, this time Li Bin chose to apologize carefully, saying that there is indeed a large audience for oil trucks at present.
But in my heart, I feel more and more certain that there is nothing wrong with that sentence.
Especially this year, as the whole Chinese car market is shrouded by new energy vehicles at a very fast speed, fuel trucks seem to usher in the so-called “sunset dusk”.
As an argument, the terminal report card just released by the HKIFA in August is also the best proof.
Admit it or not, a lot of trend things are out there.
Especially a data with high gold content.
When the retail penetration rate broke 50% again, at the beginning of this year, when BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu threw out his forecast, “the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in a single month will certainly break the 50% mark.
” Soon, it was questioned by many people.
But in July, as the figure broke through the 50% mark for the first time in history, it reached a new high of 51.
1%, up 15 percentage points from 36.
1% in the same period last year.
In an instant, they had to shut up.
As everyone knows, in the past August, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased again to 53.
9%, up 16.
6 percentage points from 37.
3% in the same period last year.
It must be admitted that the surging tide has become unstoppable.
There is no doubt that the oil tanker will receive another “slap on the head”.
In August, the production of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.
051 million, up 32.
6% from the same period last year and 12.
7% from the previous month. 6.572 million vehicles were produced from January to August in 2024, an increase of 28.
5% over the same period last year.
In August, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.
052 million, up 31.
7% from a year earlier and 11.
4% from a month earlier. 6.622 million vehicles were wholesale from January to August in 2024, an increase of 30.
2% over the same period last year.
In August, retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 1.
027 million, an increase of 43.
2 percent over the same period last year and 17.
0 percent higher than the previous month.
Retail sales from January to August in 2024 were 6.
016 million, an increase of 35.
3% over the same period last year.
In August, the export of new energy passenger vehicles was 99000, an increase of 23.
7 percent over the same period last year and 7.
6 percent month-on-month.
Exports from January to August in 2024 were 787000, an increase of 20.
1% over the same period last year.
In contrast, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers finally stayed at 48.
9%, up 13.
3 percentage points from 35.
6% in August 2023.
After reading this, someone may ask, “Why is the wholesale penetration lower than the retail penetration in a single month?” As for the answer, it is very simple: “from the point of view of some mainframe factories, oil trucks are indeed necessary, but end consumers give their choices with real money.
” At the same time, it is worth noting that the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles in August were 592000, up 6.
6% from the same period last year and 17.
3% from the previous month.
the narrow mixed sales in August were 345000, up 84% from the same period last year and 9% from the previous month.
and the wholesale sales of 115000 vehicles in August were up 109% from the same period last year, down 6% from the previous month.
In August, the new energy wholesale structure: pure electric 56%, narrow mixed 33%, plus 11%.
For comparison, August 2023 is: pure electric 70%, narrow mixed 24%, plus 7%.
In the new energy wholesale structure for the whole year of 2023: 69% of pure electric, 23% of narrow mixing, and 8% of growth.
In the face of such a result, it can only be said: “perhaps because of the fuel tank, the narrow sense of mixing and adding programs are still on the rise.
” Due to various reasons, pure electric is trapped in a certain growth bottleneck.
Even between the two sides, there is gradually an air of equality.
” In addition, for the whole of August, there were 16 models with wholesale sales of more than 20, 000 vehicles, namely: 56309 of Tesla Model Y, 53786 of BYD Song, 40949 of BYD Seagull, 40015 of BYD Seal 06, 40011 of BYD Qin L, 30446 of BYD Qin, 30388 of Tesla Model 3, 3 061 of BYD yuan, 26 186 of Volkswagen Longyi and 25 821 of Chiruihu 8.
And 25622 of Geely Boyue, 24897 of ideal L6, 23007 of BYD Song L, 22376 of Geely Xingyue, 21251 of Volkswagen Express, and 21005 of Chery Tiger 7.
It can be found that, as the two recognized “demons” in the industry, BYD and Tesla still occupy an absolutely dominant position and have absolute fashion manufacturing capacity.
It is precisely because of the desperate rush of the two, China’s new energy market is being rolled to a new height.
And the breathing space of the tanker is still being further squeezed.
The “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” is even more terrifying.
In August, China’s new energy market bloomed brilliantly.
It can be predicted that for the ongoing “Golden Nine”, as well as the next “Silver Ten”, the whole market will become more terrifying.
On the retail penetration of new energy vehicles, an important anchor point, it will certainly continue to maintain the upward curve.
, 55%, 57%, 60%.
It’s not impossible.
Homeopathy, a new question arises: “if more and more trams are bought, what kind of chain effect will it cause?” As for the answer, as the author wrote in the article, “when the retail penetration of new energy vehicles breaks again by 50%.
” First of all, oil tankers located in China’s auto market will not “die out”, but will degenerate to a very small share.
At the second quarter earnings call, Li Bin judged: “in about two years, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles will climb to 80%.
” I, on the other hand, feel more certain that it will reach 90% or higher.
As for the root cause, we can still see that the trams are being subdivided into various sectors to achieve a comprehensive replacement for oil cars.
From tens of millions of top supercars to tens of thousands of yuan trolleys, almost all of them are doing the same thing.
And once this ripple is formed, the change will be revolutionary.
Tanker, there may be only 10% of the cake in the future.
Secondly, under chaotic warfare, plug-in may surpass pure electricity.
In fact, combined with the composition of new energy vehicle sales in a single month this year, the fastest growth rate is extended range, the second is really mixed, on the contrary, pure electricity is caught in a big upward bottleneck.
And if we divide the first two into the big category of “interruption”, we may even have the same share as the latter.
Signs of wrist wrestling.
Faced with such a result, we can only say: “What the people want.
” For most users who are just beginning to accept new energy vehicles,”plug-in” is their destination at this stage.
After all, the car-using environment in China’s automobile market is too complex, and the corresponding needs are bound to be diverse.
Especially as hard-core car companies have to turn their backs in the face of the general trend, and they increasingly feel that “interference” is becoming unstoppable.
Next year, when “plug-in” power batteries with larger capacity, faster recharge speed, and greater discharge rate are used, and the previously criticized power-loss fuel consumption and power-loss power are further optimized, pure electric players will become The situation is very embarrassing.
By then, it will be hard to say who will lose and who will win in terms of sales.
Moreover, the pattern of China’s automobile market has basically been set.
Last month, at Xiaopeng’s MONA M03 press conference, He Xiaopeng, who was slowly mastering the essence of “Lei Xue”, said: “In the next 10 years, there may be only seven mainstream Chinese automobile brands left.
” I am not particularly interested in such predictions that there is a certain “exaggeration” that means too long term.
But rationally and objectively speaking, in the era of new energy vehicles, there will never be a hundred flowers blooming like the era of oil trucks.
The increasingly homogeneous products are destined to be only the so-called extremely efficient giants who can break out of the encirclement.
This year, as latecomer players like Gaohe suddenly collapsed, and as front-runners like BYD accumulated their advantages, one truth is gradually being confirmed: “The seating order is rapidly divided.
“, Wang Chuanfu’s words: “Now is an era when fast fish eat slow fish, not an era when big fish eat small fish.
If car companies do not rush forward in the next 3-5 years, there will be no chance.
” Again, it’s not just talk.
As for who will ultimately stay at the poker table, the list will only be selected from the main engine factory that is currently running frantically.
, To sum it up, it points out: “Oil trucks have no future, pure electric plug-in and hybrid must be opened in both directions, and China’s new energy will eventually win all.
“, Don’t believe it? Then let time prove it.
Of course, some judgments will be known by the end of the year.
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