At the moment, if you want to use one word to describe the first quarter of 2024, I believe many people’s answer is anxiety.
Some people are tied up by the lacklustre stock market, some are locked up by depressed house prices, some are eliminated by merciless layoffs, and some are crushed by increasingly fierce competition.
Anyway, the main attack is that everyone is in danger.
Homeopathy, focus your attention on the car rim, and similar emotions spread frantically among every participant.
Take the Chinese auto market as an example, in the face of the tide of electric transformation, almost all joint venture brands are miserable.
On the other hand, it seems that independent brands are like a fish in water, except for a few “big demons” in the real sense, most of their followers are also shouting at a loss.
Death, reshaping, reshuffling and harvesting have gradually become the main theme.
Although there are some platitudes, what will be ushered in in 2024 is the “pattern war” related to the final ranking.
Therefore, no matter who, no matter what the price, have to try their best to stay on the poker table and seek more shares and dividends.
Among them, there is no doubt including the protagonist of today’s article-Tesla.
Over the past week, combined with the remarks made by his helmsman, Mr Musk, he can also feel a wave of “extreme anxiety”.
As an argument, let’s start with the report card of the first quarter of 2024 released by the American new energy car company.
At first glance, more than 433371 new cars were produced, which performed well and basically met the expectations of the outside world.
But to the crucial delivery level, there was a complete “blood avalanche”, with a performance of only 3.
8681 billion vehicles, a year-on-year decline of 8.
53%, and a month-on-month decline of more than 20% to 20.16%. It was not only well below the 457000 previously speculated by Wall Street analysts, but also the worst performance since the third quarter of 2022.
Affected by this, the capital market gave the truest feedback.
When US stocks opened on the same day, Tesla’s share price fell sharply.
Since the beginning of this year, it has shrunk by nearly 1/3, and the market capitalization has lost more than $260 billion.
Tesla gave the following reasons for the decline in delivery in the first quarter of 2024.
For example, the Fremont plant in California is upgrading its production line with a refurbished version of Model 3.
for example, the plant in Berlin, Germany, was set on fire, resulting in production stagnation.
or, for example, the conflict in the Red Sea has largely led to shipping problems.
But in my opinion, the reason why this American new energy car company encountered the so-called “Waterloo”, the natural disaster that cannot be predicted and avoided in advance does account for a certain proportion, and the bigger accelerant is due to the weakening of its comprehensive competitiveness.
In other words, the days when Tesla didn’t buy it are over.
No matter Model 3 or Model Y, they are all in their respective market segments and are besieged by all kinds of fierce rivals emerging one after another.
In addition, the endless price war has spawned more and more “wait parties”, and man-made disasters are the things that really worry it.
However, it is slightly fortunate that Tesla struggled to hold the title of “global champion in pure electric sales” in the first quarter of 2024, and the contribution of China’s Shanghai factory is still strong.
However, these advantages still cannot fill all the holes.
On a social platform, Ross Gobber, CE0 of Geber Kawasaki wealth and investment management company, has lashed out at Tesla’s dismal performance and firmly believes that Musk should take full responsibility for his “harmful behavior” that Tesla’s products cannot sell well.
Ross Geber also posted: “I have been warning of this potential risk for more than a year.
” Now, it does happen, and it’s time for shareholders to take the blame.
According to the law, Tesla’s board of directors should be replaced by independent directors immediately.
” As soon as these words came out, Musk quickly drew an angry output: “he is such an idiot that he doesn’t even know he is an idiot.
” BYD’s sales are also down 42% from the fourth quarter of 2023, and the first quarter of 2024 will be a very difficult time for every participant.
” The implication is that the general environment is not good and no one can be spared.
But what I want to say is, “now that Musk mentioned BYD, it is important to know that with the Chinese carmaker fighting a price war and launching a number of honorable models, it is now completely bucking the trend.
By contrast, Tesla seems to be in full decline.
” By no means scaremongering, Musk will be given the biggest extreme stress test in 2024 after the once unforgettable hell of Model 3 production capacity.
For now, the bigger suspense is focused on: Tesla will release its financial results for the same period on April 23, local time in the United States.
Will there be a “blood collapse” like the key data such as bicycle gross profit margin and single-quarter revenue? Coincidentally, just last week, Reuters quoted three people familiar with the matter as saying that Tesla would abandon plans to launch low-cost electric cars and devote all his efforts to developing self-driving taxi Robotaxi in fierce competition with Chinese new energy car companies.
As soon as the news came out, it once again caused an uproar in the industry.
The stock price of the protagonist of today’s article plummeted, the market capitalization continued to shrink sharply, and Musk lost his position as the richest man in the world.
After all, the latter has long promised that “Tesla’s long-term goal is to launch affordable electric cars priced between $25000 and $30, 000.
” It has satisfied everyone’s appetite and filled up the expectations of the outside world.
In December 2023, Musk went one step further, developing a low-cost electric car that will be produced in large quantities.
“We have come a long way in this work, and I personally review the relevant plans and production lines every week.
” According to a report by Reuters in January 2024, Tesla even explicitly told suppliers that he hoped to start producing an entry-level electric car codenamed “Redwood” in mid-2025.
Insiders describe the product as a “compact crossover” and are ambitious to produce 10, 000 vehicles a week.
Up to that time, they all had the posture of an arrow on the line.
Which explains why the impact was so huge when Reuters suddenly revealed that the project might be “aborted”.
You know, with reference to Musk’s crotch “Haikou”, Tesla will hit the production and sales scale of 20 million vehicles by 2030, this inexpensive electric vehicle undoubtedly undertakes a very heavy task.
In the eyes of many investorsIt is also the key “lifesaver” for Tesla to break the declining trend and get out of the trough.
But in the end, is it possible to get nothing out of the basket? Fortunately, the waiting time was not long, and Musk responded quickly to the revelation on a social platform, saying bluntly: “Reuters is lying again.
” But what makes people feel ambiguous is that apart from the above-mentioned angry output, he did not make it clear whether Tesla’s affordable electric vehicle project is still in progress.
Very subtly, in the early hours of the next morning, Musk announced without warning: “Tesla will release the self-driving taxi Robotaxi on August 8.
” After a long drought, the share price of this American car company finally picked up.
And what I’ve learned is more like Musk has made a choice between an affordable electric car and a self-driving taxi Robotaxi.
Especially combined with the view he put forward before, “it is very important for Tesla to achieve full autopilot ability, if not, the value of the company will basically return to zero.
” But the new question also arises: what immediate change can the Robotaxi of a self-driving taxi bring to Tesla, who is in a dilemma? Maybe that’s what the whole industry cares about.
As for the course of the much-anticipated affordable electric car project, there is still no clear answer.
And the only certainty is that Musk will live in extreme anxiety in 2024.
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