It is time for the Guangzhou Auto Show, which is the end of the year, and 2024 is about to turn the page.
The weather is about the same as last year, but it’s a little stuffy.
After checking in, I found a strange thing on the way to the pavilion.
There were so many yellow taxis, and most of them had “empty car” lights on.
Oh, that wasn’t the case last year.
Ask the ride-hailing driver (there are two before and after), first, because there are too many electric two-wheelers in Guangzhou in the past two years, except for the rain, no one takes a taxi very much, of course, there are more empty cars.
In addition, it is because the number of online car-hailing and taxis has increased a lot.
Now, online ride-hailing drivers can only achieve 200 yuan and 300 yuan a day.
, “200, 300? Net income? ” “No, it’s just the gross income of the running sheet.
You can only do about 8: 10 orders a day.
The platform is under pressure and only gives a bill of 35 yuan to 40 yuan per hour.
” I calculated that excluding 250 yuan (150 yuan) of car rental and personal expenses, I could only earn a hundred and eighty yuan a day.
I was really “stuck in the system”.
It is light outside the venue, and the atmosphere of the auto show is even lighter than last year.
In fact, many car companies have finished their big and important communication long before the auto show, or they may postpone it until after the auto show.
Although there are 78 new cars launched in the world this time, there are basically none that can impress people.
And the auto show is a projection of the auto market.
In terms of the market, from the release of the sky in the first quarter to the freezing point in the second and third quarters, the recovery in September and October, and the ups and downs of the market, the closing battle in 2024 is not as pessimistic as before.
There is tradition on one side and Huawei and Xiaomi on the other.
This year’s auto show is divided into Zone An and Zone D as usual, or Zone D is more popular, and the trend of new energy is unstoppable.
As mentioned in “the Tide falls”, once the technology tide gathers its strength, it will not stop.
This time, the top booths are still Xiaomi and Huawei.
The queue outside the Xiaomi booth is long and wide.
For the first time, there are three or four rows side by side.
And Lei Jun also went everywhere like a flood, perfect interpretation of the essence of the “top stream”.
Of course, the high-profile Lei Jun also took the time to see the Zhuhai Air Show, and wherever he went, he had the demeanor of a leader’s inspection.
In addition to Xiaomi SU7 ULTRA, which has released a price of 814900 yuan, Wisdom New S7 and Hongmeng Zhixing, which are known as “using prices and products to reach real consumers,” are also mobilizing for the battle they must go through.
Huawei Hongmeng Zhixing put five new S7s in the center of the booth in a conspicuous position, silence is better than sound.
After all, the pure electricity market of 20-300000 yuan is the most competitive market segment, and the brightest swords are the models that most reflect the overall strength of car companies.
But if you want to increase, you must “break the circle” and surpass the needs of users.
As the saying goes, “only paranoia can survive.
” The magic of Huawei does not stop there.
Yin Tongyue, chairman of Chery Holdings, also said during the auto show that Yu Chengdong is strongly advised to change his name to “Yu Chengdong” because he is a successful one.
This is also the clear-cut attitude of Chery and Huawei Battle on intellectual matters for a long time.
Other brands also shouted hard at the Guangzhou Auto Show.
For example, when they arrived at the door of Hall 1.
2 on the morning of the 16th, a beautiful little sister accosted her and led her to the Volvo booth.
After I refused, she followed me for a while, and then gave up a slightly awkward smile.
Fierce competition took place in every corner.
For example, because Cadillac implemented a “one-bite price”, it asked a sales consultant about the preferential policy.
The “one-mouthful price” of the XT5 deluxe version was 265900 yuan, plus taxes and insurance, and then minus 15000 yuan.
The replacement of a new car is 20, 000 yuan (the same brand is different, only 10, 000 yuan), and the landing price is about 276000 yuan.
However, the view of a person in the industry who knows GM better is that although this practice will not kill the goose that lays the golden eggs, it is 130000 yuan cheaper than the previous market guidance price of about 390000 yuan, and “one-bite price” actually has no advantage.
This is because consumers will only talk about prices on this basis, rather than increasing prices.
To put it bluntly, there is no way for Cadillac.
Another change is that this year’s auto show, previous luxury pavilions, this time is gone.
Look up and don’t join in the fun at all.
Ultra-luxury brands are scattered in the pavilions, completely lost the previous superior momentum.
Rolls-Royce did not come, and Lamborghini, the first Lamborghini to be mixed with the Super SUV “Urus SE”, just stayed quietly in the corner of the 5.2. when he was lonely, I am afraid he had to think about the “way to live” in the future.
At the discussion of the topic selection meeting before the auto show, “living method” and “living method”, I put forward the key word “living method”.
Why did you think of that word? To tell you the truth, whether you can be “alive” or not is a crisis.
From the various “equal rights” wars at the beginning of the year, car companies showed 18 martial arts, and the eight Immortals crossed the sea, testing the “living law.
” Fortunately, finally ushered in gold nine silver ten, October the car market ushered in a hot growth trend, the crisis slightly resolved.
However, whether the “living method” is good or not is indeed testing the wisdom of various car companies.
As an example, Geely Holdings completed the merger of Polar Krypton and Lectra on the eve of the Guangzhou Auto Show in order to reduce internal friction and a more reasonable ownership structure.
It must be divided for a long time, and the detours of car companies are also long and long.
However, while Geely shrank, Chery was expanding, and after the legendary “Yueji” brand stopped, it received a new news that the new brand of Jetway will be launched in the first quarter of next year, the details are unknown.
This is also a small spray constantly tossing under the background of the era of intelligent electrification.
The spray of “living method” is also shown in the data of “setting a new record”.
China’s passenger car market retailed 2.
261 million vehicles in October, up 11.
3 per cent from a year earlier, according to the China Federation of passengers.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Federation of passengers, mentioned that the retail, wholesale, production and export of passenger cars in China hit an all-time high in October.
Among them, export-driven wholesale, hitting a new monthly record since statistics.
Of course, in addition to the inner volume, the breakthrough of the living method is at the exit.
At the Guangzhou auto show, Yin Tongyue, chairman of Chery Holdings, also said that this year’s exports are likely to reach 6 million vehicles, with another 1 million vehicles.
In terms of subdivided car sales, the top brand of “setting a new high” is BYD, which exceeded 500000 vehicles for the first time in a single month, and set a monthly sales record for Chinese car companies and a new energy monthly sales record for global car companies.
Geely’s total sales in October exceeded 226000, of which 108700 were sold by new energy, a record high.
It’s alive and well.
Some live badly, too.
Compare with 2023 Guangzhou Auto Show, a total of 12 car companies or brands are absent, including Jetta, Chevrolet, Jaguar Land Rover, Jetstar, Subaru, Jennifer Seth, Gaohe, Co-Chuang, Qichen, CSL, Rolls-Royce, Universiade New Energy, Blue Electric cars and other 13 brands, among which it is hard to say whether the poor ones can survive 2025.
On last year’s Chery Technology Day, Li Xueyong, vice president of Chery Automobile and general manager of Chery Automobile Marketing Company, said that next year will be the most “volume”, because it will be clear whether it is still on the card table or not.
For almost a year and a half, joint venture brands and independent brands on the cliff will certainly show their housekeeping skills, and the competition will be extremely fierce.
Just before the auto show, there were layoffs and supplier arrears defendants.
This is not an isolated case.
Weimar has already performed a round before.
In addition, if there is a price war, there is a “value war”.
For example, Ford China, which launched a hybrid version of LinkedIn / LinkedIn and Mondeo High horsepower E, insisted on not fighting a price war, preserved its strength and maintained its dealer channels, and instead became a reference for other joint ventures.
Of course, behind the “living law” is the wave of new energy that every car company has to face.
When the story is about to end in 2024, the trend is becoming more and more obvious.
Pure electricity stops the pace of “wild speed”, goes hand in hand with mixing and extension, and more shares will be harvested in 2025.
According to the data of the ride association, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50% for four consecutive months.
Cui Dongshu believes that this is the performance of the explosive growth of new energy, reflecting the market’s good feedback on the national scrapping and renewal and trade-in policy.
With regard to the role of the policy, Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Circulation Association, said, “in October, the average number of applications for scrapping and renewal in the automobile market is more than 10,000 per day, and at present more than half of the car buyers who come to the store have a demand for replacement.
” This shows that the policy plays a very important role in improving the prosperity of the automobile market.
A person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce also revealed that so far, the number of applications for automobile scrapping and replacement subsidies has exceeded 1.
7 million, and the average number of daily subsidy applications has remained high, and it is expected that the number will continue to increase substantially in the future.
With the release of a number of new models at the Guangzhou auto show, the cumulative effect of the overlay policy continues to appear, as well as the promotion sprint of car companies and dealers at the end of the year, the best part of a wave of car purchases after the auto show is expected.
In the final analysis, whether the “living method” is good or not will be decided next year.
Facing the time of handing in the annual “big exam”, in terms of the annual goal of the auto companies, the countdown to the Guangzhou auto show is nearing the end of the year, and the sales pressure of the auto companies has reached the most concentrated release time.
In October, after BYD detonated 500000 vehicles, Geely, Chery and Changan, the first echelons of autonomous car companies, also followed.
This year’s auto show BYD continues to package the library, while showing grand plans, it seems that there is no problem for BYD to exceed 4 million vehicles this year.
Both Chery and Geely have broken through the 2 million mark and are heading for higher goals.
At this auto show, Chery also launched “happy candy” in the event of releasing free people on the shortcut, celebrating that the shortcut achieved its annual sales target of 500000 vehicles one month ahead of schedule.
Next year, Jetta aims to sell 800000 vehicles and will launch a new brand, while the target of 1 million in 2026 seems within reach.
Relatively speaking, Changan Automobile currently sells a total of 2.
156 million vehicles, and the completion rate is 76.
99% from the sales target of 2.
8 million set at the beginning of the year, and the pressure is not great.
Some people are happy and others are sad.
Most waist and leg brands are likely to be the year of life and death in 2025.
On the other hand, some car companies with a completion rate of less than 60% are a little far from the target set at the beginning of the year, and there will be more pressure next year.
Such as SAIC and Great Wall Motor.
SAIC sold 3.
0512 million vehicles from January to October, with a target completion rate of 55%.
In terms of new energy, only Zhiji brands achieved growth in the first half of the year, but its total accounted for a small proportion.
While Great Wall sold a total of 970000 vehicles in the first 10 months, only 51.
08% of the target was achieved.
Among the products, only Harvard and tank brands continued their good momentum.
It seems that it is a bit close to achieving this year’s target of 1.
9 million.
As the “landlord” of the auto show, GAC GROUP sold 1.
52 million vehicles in the first three quarters, and the current completion rate is only 55.3%. Coupled with GAC Ean has also bid farewell to the high growth trend, “Golden Nine Silver Ten” has not ushered in a rebound, behind the urgent need for Chuanqi S7, Ean UT and other new cars to help.
Among the new car-building forces, ideal continues to take the lead with an average of more than 50, 000 vehicles per month.
after Pure Electric MEGA suffered Waterloo this year, ideal car has lowered its sales forecast for the whole year.
However, after the launch of the medium and large SUV ideal L6, it pulled a wave of sales, which once again brought the ideal back to life.
In the first 10 months, the ideal car delivered a total of 393000 vehicles, achieving 78.
6% of the annual target.
After the release of Ledao L60, Weilai also ushered in a long-lost growth.
Xiaopeng’s problem is even bigger.
Although a new brand has been released, the release of MONA M03 reflects the gloom of the 55 per cent year-on-year decline in wholesale sales of G9 in October, and the release of new P7 + cannot cover up the weakness of previous products.
After all, Xiaopeng’s proud intelligence is not enough to be a necessary condition for buying a car, and the annual target of 280000 vehicles is indeed “difficult”.
Among the new forces of second-line car building, at present, only the zero-running cars that have released the zero-run B10 have successfully “come out of the circle”.
Zero run delivered more than 38000 vehicles in October, setting a new high for five consecutive months.
Compared with Nashi, which is about to end, the key to the success of zero-running cars is to give full play to the advantage of performance-to-price ratio, and there is no “stupid move”.
In addition, Lantu Motor and Avita have also crossed the ten thousand mark and are safe for the time being.
In fact, after the Guangzhou Auto Show, there is not much time left for auto companies to sprint for KPI throughout the year.
From volume price to volume marketing, to volume configuration, volume smart driving, to the final volume flow, the car market will have to “volume” promotion efforts near the end of this year, which also puts more pressure on car companies.
But it will be clear after the auto show who will remain at the poker table rather than on the menu in 2025.
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