With the continuous emergence of new technologies such as new energy and artificial intelligence, the automobile industry is booming in the direction of “technology leadership and cross-border innovation”.
Green low-carbon and smart travel has also become an important direction for the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry.
As the official event of the 2024 Shanghai International low-carbon Wisdom Travel Exhibition, the 2024 Automobile electrification Innovation Technology Summit Forum brings together many experts in the industry to discuss the high-quality technological development of new energy “three electricity” (motor, electric control, battery).
The aim is to provide a full range of technical solutions for the overall electrification trend.
, during the forum, Huang Yonghe, senior chief expert of China Automotive Technology Research Center Co., Ltd., delivered a keynote speech entitled “Analysis of supply chain Development trend of New Energy Automobile Industry chain”.
The following is a transcript of the speech: before I came here, I actually said to Secretary General Shi Jianhua that this is the third time I have talked about the automotive industry supply chain this year, but the content has changed a little.
Later, I said Is it interesting to talk about so much? today, I would like to talk about some new ideas, especially some of which need to be discussed with you.
I have been doing research in the past few years.
Well, the time given today is not bad, for half an hour.
I will mainly talk about two parts.
First, let me give you a brief account of the overall development of new energy vehicles.
In fact, many leaders, including Director Zhu Xiaoping, have already explained the relevant situation.
Let me give you a brief account.
First of all, we are all saying that many of our leaders are also quoting this saying that the automobile industry is experiencing great changes not seen in a century.
But what does it mean? let me briefly introduce our understanding.
First of all, after entering the era of new energy vehicles, there have been some new changes in the manufacturing technology of our country’s entire automobile industry, including process technology.
Well, for example, starting from 2015, the original new energy vehicles are changed from oil to electricity, and from about 2015, they all become special for new energy vehicles.
At the same time, there are many other technologies, such as CTC,CTB, including the integrated die-casting technology initiated by Tesla, which is now being carried forward in our country, but after these technologies have come out, it has really greatly improved the value of our brand.
However, there is a very big problem here.
The cost of our mainframe factory has been reduced, but in the after-sale stage, or even after a traffic accident, many of our things cannot be repaired.
For example, I remember that Secretary General Shi Jianhua also held a seminar on integrated die casting technology in Shanghai two months ago.
I did not attend that day.
Later, I read the report.
One of the biggest problems here is that if there is a traffic accident, integrated die-casting technology, these bodies, including the chassis, can only be replaced and basically cannot be repaired, then it presses this thing on us, such as the insurance company.
that’s why some insurance for our entire new energy vehicle is actually on the rise.
The second is our infrastructure.
Well, especially in our country, when we invest in infrastructure, such as charging infrastructure, we have always been a leader in the world.
Including in April, the Ministry of Finance and three ministries issued another pilot policy on county charging infrastructure to make up for deficiencies.
Well, compared with Europe, Europe and Japan, we are very ahead in this respect.
We are now basically 2.
5 per cent, while in Europe and America it is basically 16:1.
This is also a very important reason why the development of its new energy vehicles is relatively slow.
At the same time, our country’s technology, including 5G technology and network communication technology, is ahead of other developed countries.
The third is that new energy vehicles are pushing our entire car to become an energy storage unit, so with, for example, charging after 10 o’clock on the Internet, all electric vehicles now have this function, set to 8 p.m., enjoy the peak and valley electricity price, so this is an energy storage, if our V2G technology can be widely used, we will be closer and closer to the goal of becoming an energy storage unit.
The fourth is the problem of the Internet of everything.
intelligence, including the Internet of vehicles, has actually changed the entire properties of our cars, and if we add electrification, it may become an intelligent system unit.
Fifth, market competition, especially in the area of new energy, the consumption habits of our young people are completely different from those of our generation Z, for example, those of the post-60s generation.
Their acceptance of the Internet is also very high.
At the same time, why buy all kinds of new models now, for example? Or some of our models with a certain self-driving function are mostly young people, that is to say, the consumption habits of young people are completely different from those of the older generation.
In the next step, no matter whether it is car companies, including parts companies, we may have to pay attention to the changes in the consumption habits of these people, including those born in the 1980s and then to the post-90s, post-00s, and now there are still some post-10s.
If you do not pay attention to their consumption habits, for enterprises, it will affect the entire long-term development.
The last one is the dual-carbon goal.
There has been a very great change in the entire way of life, including the mode of production, so we generally say that cars have experienced great changes that have not happened in a century.
I think the specific meaning is these six aspects, entering a period of rapid development.
, I would like to introduce here the performance of China’s Chinese brands or independent brands in the world.
In fact, since 2015, the entire brand of new energy vehicles in our country has been ranked at the top in the world, but many enterprises have changed to a certain extent every year.
For example, BAIC New Energy at that time ranked very high, and now it seems that it has been going down.
That is to say, in the new energy vehicle track, the competition is still very fierce, so among the top 20 brands, there are actually eight of our Chinese brands, mainly BYD, Guangzhou Automobile, Wuling, ideal, Changan, Geely, Mingjue, Weilai, the global share has reached the top 1/3, to this part, to put it simply, the entire automobile market of our country.
China’s entire automobile market has entered the stage of stock competition, so car sales have ranked first in the world for 15 consecutive years, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have been ranked first in the world for 9 consecutive years.
In the fuel vehicle market, you can see that the traditional fuel vehicle market is shrinking rapidly.
with the increase of the penetration of the whole new energy vehicle, the traditional fuel vehicle has been declining, but is this speed too fast, because our new energy vehicle does not make money? even our supply chain is on the edge of break-even, while traditional cars can make money and make profits, so what does our industrial capital value? If industrial capital does not make money, if it does not make money in the Chinese market, it will definitely be withdrawn.
Under such circumstances, if we speed up again, many of our foreign-funded enterprises may have to withdraw, unlike financial capital.
Financial capital values how to arbitrage, while industrial capital is the long-term development direction, and once a few years of losses, then withdraw, in that case.
This problem may arise in our domestic market, which may be very detrimental to the whole country, including the overall economic situation.
Recently, many joint ventures have been laying off staff, precisely because of the decline, and the development of new energy is too slow.
This is also a very big problem, and there is also some profound understanding.
In such public occasions, I dare not tell you about it, for fear of being exposed to the Internet.
On the issue of stock competition, I would like to talk about such a data, please pay attention to it.
We have been doing a statistics of apparent consumption, which refers to our domestic production, plus imports and minus the export volume of that year.
In fact, our domestic should be close to sales, but you can see that since 2017, after we reached 29 million vehicles, we have been declining all the way.
Last year, the number of new cars registered was 24.
56 million, and the data released by the association were more than 30 million.
This is very easy to cause misunderstanding, including many second-hand car exports last year.
In fact, there were also many new car exports.
After it was licensed, it was immediately closed.
As you can see, the number of motor vehicle compulsory insurance is not allowed, only the traffic insurance is valid for one year.
No matter whether the account is closed or not, the money has already been paid.
The data of the Ministry of Public Security of 24.
56 million vehicles includes the number of households sold after sales.
I think a lot of our data should be analyzed in detail, otherwise it will affect the decision-making of our leaders.
For example, in the first half of last year, according to the data released by the Association from January to June, the growth rate of our entire automobile market was 9.8%. This problem is very big, affecting various leaders to issue some corresponding policies in time.
I won’t make an introduction to this part.
Let me talk about a rough forecast made by Sinochem Politics Research.
It is estimated that by next year, sales of new energy vehicles may reach 45%.
Recently, many leaders have said that it should exceed 50% next year, including the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in April this year.
I think it has reached 50%.
By 2030, it may reach 60%.
Who supports our automobile industry and where is our profit source? We roll up so much, this problem is very big, so it is expected that pure electric will still become the mainstream technology route by 2030.
Recently, everyone has different views on the proportion of PHEV and BEV, but I personally think that PHEV, including our extended range, should also be an excessive flattening.
In a certain stage in the middle, it may achieve a very high market share.
Let me tell you two questions.
First, if the purchase tax on our new energy vehicles is gone by the end of 2027, this is the first condition, and the second condition is that if the solid-state battery can come out at about 2030, does our plug-in mix, including our add-on program, still have such a high market share? basically, it is still predicted that it will still account for 80%, and fuel cells are likely to reach 100, 000 vehicles.
The second part introduces you to some problems of the industrial chain supply chain.
From a relatively macro point of view, unlike what I just said, the focus is from the motor industry.
First of all, because of this data, the automobile industry for so many years, we have been talking about a very special industry called technology-intensive, capital-intensive and labor-intensive, so the industrial correlation is high.
When I just graduated, I called other industries related industries, but now great changes have taken place.
For example, our motors, which used to belong to related industries, do not directly belong to the automobile industry.
At present, they are one of the important pillar industries of the national economy.
Two months ago, a certain self-media suddenly published an article, including Baidu, Tencent News and so on.
The industrial output value of the automobile industry accounts for more than 10% of the country’s GDP, so our automobile industry has become the pillar industry of our country.
This is a serious common sense mistake.
Let me tell you briefly.
According to the statistics of our China Automobile Industry Yearbook and the National Bureau of Statistics, a rough calculation is made that the proportion of the added value of our automobile industry in the industrial added value is basically between 4% and 5%, which is the data by 2022, while the proportion of the added value of the automobile industry in our GDP for so many years should be between 1.
9% and 2.
0% in 2022.
Last year, since our entire car output exceeded 30 million vehicles, because this data has not yet come out, it should be close to 2.
5%, so we can only say that it will not exceed 3%, so that is a common sense mistake.
But as a pillar industry, what we use to express and what to show, there are three 10% can be seen.
In 2023, the national automobile retail sales exceeded 4.
85 trillion yuan.
It accounts for more than 10% of the country’s total consumer retail sales, and the second 10% is tax.
Our automobile-related taxes include what we call purchase tax, consumption tax, and value-added tax, including fuel consumption tax.
These things are added, accounting for more than 10% of the total tax revenue.
This has been the case for so many years.
If the aftermarket is included from the beginning of sales to scrapping, it should be more than 15%.
The third is that our entire employees, who account for more than 10% of the employed people in cities and towns, cannot be said to be relatively small compared with the entire national population, so I will give you a brief account of this sentence here.
Let’s focus on this chart.
We have recently made a corresponding change with this map since 2017.
This picture has been talked about many times, but now we have found a major problem, that is, why new energy car companies are not making money now.
Only the previous four companies, Tesla, BYD, ideal, GAC Ean began to make a profit last year.
Why? Everyone canTo take a look.
After we changed our engine gearbox from the traditional automobile industry chain to big three electricity and small three electricity, we found a very important problem.
Our pure electricity is BEV, and the industrial chain has become shorter, while the plug-in mix includes adding programs.
In fact, the industrial chain has become longer.
Why? Basically, it is very difficult for us to do this.
In our after-sales service, there may be a lot of people here driving trams.
Maintenance is basically based on inspection.
You should maintain and change tires at most, including interior decoration, or some other things, including brake parts.
You can see the picture in the upper right corner in this picture.
Traditional car parts, no matter what kind of car you are, you have to use these things.
There is not much change, but for example, why can the ideal be profitable? first of all, during the after-sales service stage, my engine gearbox has to be maintained accordingly.
This is a very important thing to say that our engine, including the gearbox, can be recreated, and even the parts inside can be remanufactured, but can our batteries still be remanufactured, but if we want to do repairs? It is very difficult, including what we will focus on later.
One of the biggest problems of so many all-in-one motors is that they are dismantled and want to be repaired, which is basically impossible.
They can only be installed on the production line online, because their volume is getting smaller and smaller.
Therefore, in the whole process of the change of our entire industrial chain, we should study what the economic scale of new energy vehicles is.
The economic scale of cars in the 1970s was determined to be 300,000 vehicles, so how many tens of thousands of new energy vehicles will we have in the next step, and in the end we can really make a profit, so we are currently studying such a problem.
Well, power batteries have formed four major industrial clusters, mainly the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the Bohai Rim, and the Southwest.
Why do people in the Southwest invest more recently, because they use hydropower? well, during your export to Europe, all batteries, including carbon footprint requirements, may be advantageous, so everyone begins to invest there accordingly.
The whole area rich in mining resources and renewable energy is gathering, and at the same time, in the area of power batteries, I would like to say briefly that this is the entire ranking of the number of power batteries installed in 2023.
You can take a look at the top 10 enterprises.
At present, the main power batteries are lithium iron phosphate and ternary, but in terms of solid-state batteries, our domestic enterprises are making efforts, but with regard to solid-state batteries.
Recently, I have been learning when solid-state batteries can be mass produced.
This is indeed very big for our country.
Recently, I want to find an opportunity to go to some solid-state battery production lines to have a look.
What do you want to see? See if there are any changes in its process equipment and current ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries, and whether solid-state batteries will eventually subvert our ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries.
This is a matter of material.
Let’s not talk so much about time.
Let’s talk about electric motor control.
At present, electric motor control is also basically three major industrial clusters, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta.
Everyone can take a look at this.
This is a detailed analysis we have done.
This is to rank the motor electric control enterprises of our country’s passenger cars in 2023 and give you a list.
If you talk about this piece, you can take a look at our indicators.
In the entire drive motor industry, we define it as basically the same level as foreign countries, but in terms of performance indicators, we are more and more ahead, including Huawei’s eight-in-one.
Xiaomi’s seven-in-one, including Dongfeng Nano’s 10-in-one.
Two weeks ago, BYD released a 12-in-one motor, so the best high-speed speed is 23000 rpm.
Well, this shows that in terms of motors, including rotational speed, power density and motor efficiency, we have begun to take the lead, but the overall technical level is basically poor, and we can’t blow too hard.
With regard to the issue of motors, recently, we are communicating with some motor enterprises, especially those who are engaged in technology.
if ours becomes a 10-in-1, 12-in-1 motor, can it be repaired or not? Dr.
Zhu told me that it is really very difficult, because it has too many functions, all concentrated in one, this is one.
The second space is getting smaller and smaller, because when line assembly is produced, it is done according to the professional production line.
As an automobile maintenance factory, it is too difficult to take it down and put it back on.
So there is the same problem with these things.
Once there is a problem, this thing can only be replaced.
For example, if it is removed from the car and not used, it can be used directly.
If you want to do remanufacturing, it is almost impossible for our industry to do in-depth research.
If so, why does Britain, including foreign countries, refuse to do many trams for you? some of our domestic ones have raised corresponding insurance premiums for some single models.
This is an important reason why Tesla and BYD work as insurance companies themselves.
This is a conclusion of my analysis.
To talk about the last piece, I would like to share with you my point of view, that is to say, under the trend of the development of the integration of the three modernizations, new energy vehicles will have new changes in their product positioning, including the core technology industry, ecological business model and enterprise value.
at the current stage, for example, from the perspective of product positioning, it is a means of mobile transportation, and large-scale mobile intelligent terminals will be formed in the future.
When will the energy storage unit and digital space arrive? It’s hard to predict.
But it is indeed a future trend, so the core technology from the current three electricity will be extended to the electronic and electrical architecture, including the operating system, chips, sensors, vehicle networking and V2G mentioned above.
The structure of the industrial chain, that is, from the upstream, middle and downstream chain ecological structure, will change to a network ecological structure, that is to say, it will cover the entire automobile transportation, energy, communication, Internet travel.
It is a kind of network structure.
Unlike we are now a chain, although your chain can be closed-loop, but it is still a chain, but downstream will change to the network structure, so there are a lot of opportunities, the product value is based on the hardware of the big three electricity, the next step will be hardware plus software, especially OTA upgrade and value-added will become a very important profit means for our mainframe factory in the future, the business model is currently product-centered The next step will be completely transferred to consumer demand, youThe products you design must be based on consumer needs.
Consumer needs may determine your product design, including product development.
The industrial structure is mainly complete vehicle companies.
The next step will be to include main engine manufacturers, ICT companies, including travel service providers.
Everyone competes on the same platform.
The last one is corporate value.
Currently, the main factor to judge corporate value is sales volume and scale, but the next step may be based on sales volume and scale.
To increase, for example, the company’s future development prospects, profitability, R & D capabilities, including the bargaining power of the brand, will become important reference factors in the future.
It is different from the current one.
I will introduce so much.
I hope everyone will criticize and correct them.
Thank you.
(Compiled/Car Home Yan Jun), return to the first electric network home page>.
