As a traditional off-season for car consumption, the auto market did not perform very well at the end of the first half of June, with a 3% year-on-year decline amid a slump, pouring cold water on the booming Chinese car market.
Wholesale and retail sales data released by the Federation of passengers show that the double decline in the market trend also set the tone for the car market in the first half of the year: the price war and the trend of superimposed consumption weakened, and the nerves of the whole market were too tight.
Year-on-year growth of 6% can be regarded as the only comfort in the predicament.
The voices and actions of anti-involution and anti-price war are slowly unfolding in the suggestions of car companies, dealers and some people in the industry, even if they may not achieve substantial progress and role in the end, but this struggle and cry also represent some thinking and attitudes of the industry.
Judging from the narrow passenger car sales in June and half a year, this kind of action is very necessary.
Basically, in the top 15 car companies, with the exception of BYD, Chery and Geely, wholesale sales of all car companies declined in June, including Tesla, who has a very strong brand and stands at the top of new energy, as well as BBA, the luxury car of choice for consumers to upgrade.
Even if you look at TOP30, which accounts for 93% of the entire car market, only 10 companies have achieved wholesale sales growth, and the vast majority of them are dominated by their own brands.
The dual situation of ice and fire, not only between fuel vehicles and new energy, in the joint venture and independent, in the competition of sales and share of other departments, the once market competition has completely turned into a ruthless fight.
Let’s take a look at the car companies of TOP15 in the first half of the year.
The year-on-year decline of more than half of the car companies can also be regarded as the most real microcosm of the car market.
The situation of self-ownership and joint venture is becoming more and more intense, and everyone is very concerned about the decline of the joint venture brand, where is the end? In the first half of the year, the top four car companies should be firmly established by BYD, Chery, Geely and Changan.
The first BYD and the second Chery have a sales lead of 550000 vehicles, and it can be judged that in the past year or two, BYD’s lead can hardly be overtaken.
Geely is short of 100000 vehicles to catch up with Chery and Changan is short of 150000 vehicles to catch up with Geely.
This pattern seems to be difficult to change and change this year.
Independent top four firmly control the top four car companies, but also for independent brands to continue to squeeze joint ventures, continue to achieve share growth provides the most direct momentum.
Of course, only looking at the sales volume, FAW-Volkswagen at the head of the joint venture has a gap of only 50,000 vehicles from the fourth, which is equivalent to realizing the catch-up of FAW-Volkswagen with more than 10,000 vehicles in a single month.
after all, for joint venture cars, sales pick up at the end of the peak season at the end of the year.
Catch-up is not impossible, but the 11.
15% year-on-year decline adds more difficulties to this kind of catch-up.
The gap between SAIC-Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen is also very obvious, with a shortfall of more than 200,000 vehicles in half a year.
Even if SAIC-Volkswagen has stopped falling and picked up, the situation of joint venture is difficult to make it possible for SAIC-Volkswagen or even the entire Volkswagen brand to rise further.
Great Wall, another independent car company, does not have Yu Chery, Geely and Changan side by side and is willing to stand in the waist of the top 10, but its 12.
24% year-on-year sales growth can indeed be regarded as a comfort under fierce competition.
of course, this may also be the choice of Great Wall strategy, not to participate too much in this price war, to spend more efforts on making products and a healthy system.
This is also an important reason why the deduction profit of the Great Wall in the first half of the year can reach 5 billion-6 billion.
After all, in the business world, only profits can promote the sustainable development of the system, especially the huge investment in the automobile industry to promote the progress of technology and products.
Even Tesla, it should be said, has felt the pressure of volume in the Chinese market.
The decline in sales volume by more than 10% is on the one hand, and Tesla’s massive layoffs in the first half of the year are the most direct manifestation.
Although Tesla has gained a leading position in the new energy market with two cars and less frequently updated products, he has made higher gross margins in terms of efficiency, but in China’s internal market, he has to be involved in a torrent of competition, either cutting prices or reducing quantity.
In fact, Volkswagen and Toyota may be the only joint venture cars in China.
For example, Guangzhou Auto Toyota, although it has become the biggest decline in the top 15 with a 25% year-on-year decline, has still retained its position in the top 10.
If you look back, FAW Toyota has retained its position in the top 15, which is much better than Japanese Honda and American GM falling out of the top 15.
The rest of the heads are luxury cars BBA, half a year 300000 traditional luxury cars, all hang the negative growth label, the terminal fracture profit, really put great pressure on the dealer system.
Fortunately, BBA brands are still strong, so getting rid of the disorderly price war has become the pursuit of luxury cars.
Although it is a last resort under market pressure, there is also an opportunity to comply with the trend.
If a single car company is fighting for strength, then the competition between different departments depends on the trend.
First of all, there are independent car companies, although there are more car companies with declining sales in June, but the overall growth rate is 17.
7%, which is already a very good data performance, including in the first half of the year, autonomous car companies rose to 7.
27 million vehicles from 5.
84 million in the same period, achieving an increase of 24.
5%, which directly pushed the independent share to 61.
9% from 52.
8% in the same period.
If you look at June, the share of autonomy has reached 64.
4%, constantly breaking the historical record.
The pulling role of head car companies is obvious, coupled with the promotion of a large number of independent new energy smart cars, so that the share of independence continues to rise.
However, the author believes that although the trend is exuberant, the share of autonomy will not break out all the time, especially now the differentiation among independent brands is also intensifying, the number of weak brands is constantly shifting to strong brands, and the sales of new car-building forces have been unable to break through the bottleneck, and the real driving force of independence still has to come from the head autonomous car companies.
As a matter of course, independent prosperity has squeezed the survival space of the joint venture.
The share of German, Japanese and American systems in June was 15.
3%, 11.
7% and 5.
5% respectively, and the trend is also going downwards.
We should know that the German system still has a 20% level in the first half of 2023.
The Japanese system also has a market share of more than 15%, while the American system has 10% market space, which is now basically falling on a benchmark of about 5%.
The situation is really not optimistic.
Judging from the market performance of the major joint venture car companies, except for SAIC-Volkswagen, Fujian Mercedes-Benz, Dongfeng Honda and Changan Ford, the decline has become their norm in the first half of the year, especially SAIC GM and American cars.
Jiangling Ford, the decline even exceeded 50%, and its market performance and market conditions were in crisis.
Many people are asking, where is the end of the decline of joint ventures? Of course, this is not to wave flags for joint venture brands.
Although they have the title of joint ventures, they are actually Chinese companies.
There are also many compatriots who also want Chinese consumers to have better automobile products and experiences, so they should not be beaten to death with a stick.
Moreover, it is precisely because of competition between different departments in the market that every car company is forced to do its best possible to meet consumers ‘needs for car products and experiences.
It is not spring that stands alone, but only when hundreds of schools are in full bloom.
Perhaps the fall of joint ventures has a common characteristic, that is, they have become accustomed to living a good life in the past and lost their fighting spirit and competitiveness in the face of fierce competition.
I believe that joint ventures will not give up such a large market segment in China, and will definitely learn from the pain.
After thinking about the pain, they want to understand what the Chinese market should do.
On the long-term track of automobiles, good times and bad times are the norm, and as long as you stick to it, it is meaningful.
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