As the saying goes, “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”.
September and October are the peak seasons for car sales.
However, this year’s “Golden Nine” is not good enough, and car sales have declined in most parts of the world.
Global light vehicle sales are expected to fall 4% year-on-year in September.
Among them, car sales in China are down 5% from the same period last year, and government subsidies for scrapping and replacement are still waiting for continuous efforts.
sales in the US auto market are expected to decline by 13% due to a reduction in the number of days of sales.
and due to a weak economy and high car prices, the number of car registrations in Europe is still not satisfactory.
From January to September, however, the global light vehicle market maintained year-on-year growth, but grew only slightly by 0.
2 per cent.
Global auto market: sales in China, the United States, Europe and India all declined.
from a specific market point of view, China’s auto production and sales completed 2.
796 million and 2.
809 million respectively in September, down 1.
9% and 1.
7% respectively from a year earlier, and increased by 12.
2% and 14.
5% respectively from the previous month, still ranking first in the world.
From January to September, the cumulative production and sales of Chinese cars reached 21.
47 million and 21.
571 million respectively, up 1.
9 per cent and 2.
4 per cent respectively over the same period last year, slowing down from the previous eight months.
The China Automobile Association pointed out that in the third quarter, with the strengthening of subsidies for scrapping and renewal of cars at the national level, local replacement and renewal policies have come into effect one after another, and car companies have launched new autumn products one after another, and the passenger car market has gradually picked up.
In particular, the terminal retail market continues to strengthen, and the “Golden Nine” effect continues to appear.
New energy vehicles and automobile exports continue to have a good situation and make significant contributions.
According to the statistics of the Gaishi Automotive Research Institute, since the beginning of this year, including Guangxi, Chongqing, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Hebei, Hainan, Inner Mongolia and other regions, have announced the issuance of automobile consumption vouchers / consumption subsidies, combined with the automobile “trade-in” policy, to achieve greater preferential efforts, superimposed county recharging facilities to make up for the shortcomings of the pilot work, have effectively promoted the new energy vehicle consumption boom.
The US light vehicle market is weak, with flat sales of the Detroit Big three and mixed performance of other carmakers.
Research firm GlobalData expects US light vehicle sales to reach 1.
17 million in September, down 13% from a year earlier.
Cox noted that the US auto market continued to underperform expectations in September and the third quarter.
“Consumer affordability remains a major obstacle to the current market,” Cox said.
” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas also pointed out that new light cars are still too expensive for American consumers, leading many to wait and see or switch to used cars.
Analysts predict that the US auto market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the fourth quarter as uncertainty over the US presidential election and prolonged strikes by dockworkers at ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast could disrupt the delivery of imported light vehicles in the fourth quarter.
Slap Global Mobility has cut its forecast for US car sales in 2024 to 15.
9 million from 16 million.
As the economy remained weak and consumers cut spending, the number of new car registrations in Europe reached 1.
12 million in September, down 4.
2% from a year earlier, the first consecutive decline in more than two years.
In the current European market, the growth of electric vehicle sales is not enough to offset the decline in internal combustion engine vehicle sales, and then superimposed a variety of headwind factors, the market is under greater growth pressure.
Constantin Gall, head of Ernst & Young’s mobile travel business in Western Europe, said in a report: “the European auto industry is still in a state of crisis.
Before the end of the year, there was no positive impetus for the market to resolve the crisis-national economies were weakening and geopolitical tensions were not easing, creating uncertainty for private and business clients.
” In September, light vehicle sales in India were 411000, down 2 per cent from a year earlier and up 2 per cent from a month earlier.
Of this total, the wholesale number of passenger vehicles was 352000, down 1 per cent from the same period last year, while sales of light commercial vehicles were 59000, down 4 per cent from the same period last year.
Due to weak demand and inventory adjustments made by carmakers to reduce high inventories at dealers, wholesale passenger car sales in India have fallen for the third month in a row compared with the same period a year earlier.
At the same time, sales of light commercial vehicles have fallen for five consecutive months compared with the same period last year, mainly affected by extended monsoon periods, tight credit, rising car prices and reduced government spending.
While sales in many mainstream car markets fell, the Japanese car market reversed the decline and returned to growth (0.3%). New car sales in Japan rose slightly to 438733 in September from 437493 in the same period last year.
Since the end of last year, the Japanese car market is still trying to recover from a series of safety test manipulation scandals.
At the end of last year, Dafa was ordered to stop production of several key models for several months, affecting brands such as Toyota, Mazda and Subaru.
After Daihatsu was allowed to resume full production in May, Toyota was banned from delivering three other models, the Corolla Fielder, Corolla Axio and Yaris Cross, in June because of new safety test violations discovered by Japan’s Ministry of Land and Transport.
However, production of these models resumed in early September, which has partly restored the growth of the Japanese car market.
Overall, the global light vehicle market sold at an annual rate of about 90 million vehicles in September, in line with August.
A number of analysts expect the global car market to continue to grow in 2024, but the growth rate will slow.
After several difficult years, the auto industry will fully recover in 2025.
Among them, market research firm Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) pointed out in a report: “Global new car sales growth is negligible in 2024, but the market will grow by 2.
3% year on year in 2025, mainly due to the expansion of the electric vehicle market.
” However, rising trade tensions, fierce competition from China and disputes over decarbonization targets will pose risks for carmakers.
” Despite these challenges, EIU expects new car sales in the world’s 60 largest markets to reach 97.
2 million by 2025, surpassing the 2017 record.
New energy vehicle market: production and sales in China hit a record high and growth resumed in Europe, and global sales of electric vehicles (including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles) reached 1.
69 million in September, up 30.
5% from a year earlier, thanks to strong performance in China and renewed growth in Europe, according to data released by market research firm Rho Motion.
Judging from the specific market, in September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China completed 1.
307 million and 1.
287 million respectively, an increase of 48.
8% and 42.
3% respectively over the same period last year, with a market share of 45.8%.Monthly production and sales hit an all-time high From January to September, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles in China completed 8.
316 million and 8.
32 million respectively, an increase of 31.
7% and 32.
5% respectively over the same period last year, with a market share of 38.6%. Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said at the 2024 China Automobile Forum in July that he expected sales of new energy vehicles in China to reach 11.
5 million in 2024.
The Global Automotive Research Institute also predicts that China’s new energy vehicle production in 2024 will be 11.
48 million, an increase of 26.
5% over the same period last year, with a penetration rate of 42.9%. Sales are expected to reach 11.
5 million, an increase of 28.
1% over the same period last year.
At the same time, the European market for electric vehicles (including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles) is also showing good signs.
Demand for electric cars in Europe fell after governments scrapped subsidies last year, but the market rebounded in September.
In September, the number of electric vehicle registrations in Europe was about 295000, up 6% from a year earlier and returning to growth for the first time since April.
Of this total, European pure electric vehicle registrations rose 14 per cent year-on-year to 212000, contributing to the growth of the European electric vehicle market, while plug-in hybrid vehicle registrations fell 9 per cent to 83000.
In terms of market penetration, the European electric vehicle market also ushered in a good performance.
In September, the share of electric vehicles in the entire European car market rose to 26%, of which the market share of pure electric vehicles was 19%.
In addition, European hybrid vehicles (34% market share) outsell gasoline vehicles (29% market share) for the first time, and the market penetration of diesel vehicles (8%) is also declining, a trend that is sure to continue in the future.
As of the end of September, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in Europe was 22% (15% of pure electric vehicles), only 1% lower than the level of 23% a year ago.
As the largest electric car market in Europe, the electric car markets in the UK and Germany are mixed.
Sales of electric and pure electric vehicles in Germany rose 5% and 8.
7% respectively in September from a year earlier, successfully reversing the decline of 59.
9% and 68.
8% respectively in August.
However, although German electric vehicle penetration rose to 23.
7 per cent in September from 21.
0 per cent in the same period last year, it was lower than it was two years ago.
The economic downturn, the elimination of subsidies and the overpricing of pure electric vehicles are the “great haze” hanging over the German electric car market.
In the face of stricter EU emissions requirements and market pressure, the German government is discussing the possibility of introducing new incentives, which is good news for the “subsidy-sensitive” German electric car market.
Britain’s 2024 zero-emission car rule requires pure electric vehicles to account for 22% of the total sales of brands, otherwise they will have to buy points or pay a fine.
As a result, carmakers are offering big discounts in an attempt to meet the government’s zero-emission vehicle sales requirements, and deliveries of pure electric vehicles in the UK hit a new high of 56387 in September, up 24 per cent from a year earlier.
By the end of this year, under the influence of zero-emission vehicle regulations, the UK market will clearly be close to the target of 22% penetration of pure electric vehicles, but given that the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles is only 17.
8% from January to September, so some brands may offer more discounts for pure electric vehicles by the end of December to improve the share of sales.
As the fastest electrified market in Europe, Norway’s electrified transformation has once again set a new record and is expected to achieve zero emissions by 2025.
In September, Norwegian electric vehicle penetration reached a record 97.
5%, up from 93.
0% in the same period last year.
Among them, the market share of pure electric vehicles in Norway also rose to a new high of 96.
4% from 87% in the same period last year.
By contrast, the market share of pure gasoline vehicles fell to 0.
37%, while the market share of other types of vehicles also fell to about 1%.
Since the introduction of new GSR2 safety regulations in Europe in early July, many old car designs (mainly fossil fuel vehicles) have been eliminated from the Norwegian market, and pure electric vehicles have become almost the only option in the market.
At present, more than 95% of the new cars sold in the Norwegian market are pure electric vehicles.
With the reduction of the price and driving cost per kilometer of pure electric vehicles, the “phase-out” speed of internal combustion engine vehicles will be accelerated and replaced by more economical pure electric vehicles.
Norway is expected to become the first country to achieve zero-emission vehicles in 2025.
All in all, the development of the European electric vehicle market is still focused on the policies and measures of governments, the introduction of more affordable models and the improvement of charging infrastructure.
On the one hand, the German government is considering re-introducing incentives, while the British government is also using zero-emission rules to boost sales of pure electric vehicles.
On the other hand, European carmakers have begun to introduce low-cost models as consumers are deterred by the high cost of buying electric cars.
Stellantis began delivering the 23300 euro Citro ë n ë-C3 city car in mid-September, while Renault launched the R5 model at 25000 euros in October.
In the global market, thanks to generous subsidy support from policy makers, the share of electric vehicles in global new car sales soared from 3.
4 per cent (2.
1 million) in 2019 to 21.
8 per cent (13.
6 million) in 2023.
However, after the initial “explosive” growth, the growth of the global electric vehicle market also slowed in 2024 as demand slowed.
However, with many governments still offering tax breaks to consumers and tightening targets for zero-emission and electric vehicles, as well as carmakers offering affordable models and discount incentives, EIU expects global electric vehicle sales to grow 16.
3% year-on-year to more than 19.
4 million vehicles in 2025.
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