With the start of the fourth quarter of 2024, the global light vehicle market began a year-end sprint, with cumulative light vehicle sales up 1 per cent year-on-year in the first 10 months.
The annual sales rate of the global light vehicle market also reached 93 million, an improvement from September.
In October, global light vehicle sales rose 6% year-on-year, and the car market recovered in most regions.
Among them, new car sales in China increased by 7% year-on-year, driven by subsidies and an ongoing price war.
Driven by extra days of sales and the launch of new models, the US new car market grew by 12 per cent.
Due to the continuing serious political and economic headwinds, the number of car registrations in Europe is basically the same as in the same period last year.
Global auto market: the “Silver Ten” is very successful, and most auto markets are welcoming growth.
From a specific market point of view, China’s auto production and sales completed 2.
996 million and 3.
053 million respectively in October, an increase of 3.
6% and 7% respectively over the same period last year, and an increase of 7.
2% and 8.
7% respectively over the previous month.
From January to October, the cumulative production and sales of cars in China reached 24.
466 million and 24.
624 million respectively, up 1.
9 per cent and 2.
7 per cent respectively over the same period last year.
According to the analysis of the China Automobile Association, in October, the “two new” (scrap renewal and replacement renewal) policy has an obvious pulling effect on automobile consumption, auto shows and promotions in many places are in full swing, and new models are launched intensively by enterprises.
promote the heat of the car market continues to rise, automobile production and sales increased in October compared with the same period last year, the market performance is better than the “Golden Nine”, and the characteristics of “Silver Nine Gold Ten” are obvious.
Chen Shihua, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said that looking to the future, “with the cumulative effect of the policy continuing to appear, the sprint of car companies and dealers at the end of the year will contribute to the sustained release of car consumer demand, and the car market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the next two months.
” In view of the remarkable boost effect of the “trade-in” policy, it is suggested that the relevant policies should be continued next year, and the implementation rules should be issued as soon as possible to expand policy publicity.
With strong retail sales growth offsetting weak fleet deliveries, research firm GlobalData expects u.s. light vehicle sales in October to rise 12% year-on-year to 1.
343 million, about 15000 more than expected, with retail sales of 1.
15 million and fleet deliveries of 193000.
Analysts say increased incentives, wider options and more days of sales have helped push up turnover in the US car market.
David Oakley, sales Forecast Manager for the Americas at GlobalData, said: “for most of 2024, U.S. car sales were generally disappointing, but October saw a pleasant change.
While the fundamentals of the market may not have changed much, some consumers seem to be attracted by increased incentives, increased car supply and relaxed interest rates.
” Due to a decline in fleet deliveries in recent months, GlobalData cut its 2024 US car sales forecast from 15.
9 million to 15.
8 million and said US car sales could fall further to 15.
7 million if fleet deliveries continue to fall below expectations in November and December.
Passenger car registrations in Europe rose only 0.
1 per cent in October from a year earlier to 1.
04 million, as declines in sales in France, Italy and the UK largely offset growth in the German market.
Although car sales in Europe are stagnant, they end two consecutive months of year-on-year declines.
Of these, Spain led the European car market with 7.
2 per cent year-on-year growth.
Germany grew 6 per cent after three months of decline.
and car registrations in France, Italy and the UK fell 11.
1 per cent, 9.
1 per cent and 6 per cent respectively.
The European car market has performed poorly this year as high interest rates and the rising cost of living have affected demand.
EV Volumes expects European light vehicle market registrations to grow by just 2.
4% year-on-year this year, down from the 2.
6% forecast in July and well below the 2019 level.
In the short term, the European car market is expected to be difficult to return to the level before the COVID-19 epidemic.
At the same time, the Indian car market ushered in Diwali and Shisheng Festival, stimulating local consumer demand and driving passenger car sales to resume growth.
Despite a high sales base in the same period last year, India’s passenger car market hit an all-time high of 393000 units in October, up 0.
9 per cent from a year earlier.
The Association of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) and GlobalData predict that wholesale car sales in India are expected to reach a record 4.
9 million in 2024, thanks to continued strong demand for SUV and positive factors such as the launch of new models.
New car sales in Japan rose slightly more than 1 per cent to 402310 in October from 397672 in the same period last year.
Dafa was ordered to suspend production for several months after a safety test manipulation scandal was revealed at the end of last year, affecting brands such as Toyota, Mazda and Subaru, and the Japanese car market has been declining for months.
As carmakers resume production, the Japanese car market has begun to stabilize and has been growing for two consecutive months.
Statista, a research firm, expects Japanese car sales to reach 4.
28 million in 2024, down from 4.
78 million in 2023.
With the exception of Vietnam, auto market sales in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia all showed a decline of varying degrees in October.
Among them, due to anaemic economic growth and tight bank loans (especially pickup truck loans), Thai car sales fell 36% in October, and Thai car sales have fallen for 17 consecutive months since June 2023.
Based on this, the Federation of Thai Industry (FTI) has lowered its forecast for Thai car sales in 2024 from 550000 to 450000.
Looking forward to the global auto market in 2024, in view of the continuing economic challenges, a number of agencies expect the global auto market to maintain growth in 2024, but the growth rate will slow down.
In August, one of the agencies cut its forecast for the global car market for 2024 to 1.
8 per cent (sales are expected to be 91.
4 million) from 2.
6 per cent and expects the market to pick up again next year, up 2.
5 per cent to 93.
7 million vehicles from a year earlier.
New energy vehicle market: China hit another record high, sprinting 12 million vehicles for the whole year, and global electric vehicle sales (including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles) reached 1.
72 million in October, up 35 percent from a year earlier, according to market research firm Rho Motion.
It is worth mentioning that electric vehicle sales have increased in most parts of the world.
Specifically, in October, China’s new energy vehicles continued to maintain rapid growth, with monthly production and sales reaching new highs, reaching 1.
463 million and 1.
43 million respectively, up 48% and 49.
6% respectively over the same period last year, with a market penetration rate of 46.8%. From January to October, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles in China completed 97% respectively.
79000 vehicles and 9.
75 million vehicles, an increase of 33% and 339% respectively over the same period last year, with a market penetration rate of 39.6%. According to the statistics of the Gaishi Automotive Research Institute, since the beginning of this year, including Guangxi, Chongqing, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Hebei, Hainan, Inner Mongolia and other regions, have announced the issuance of automobile consumption vouchers / consumption subsidies, combined with the automobile “trade-in” policy, to achieve greater preferential efforts, superimposed county recharging facilities to make up for the shortcomings of the pilot work, have effectively promoted the new energy vehicle consumption boom.
Chen Shihua revealed, “according to the statistics of the association, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles have accounted for more than 50% for three months in a row, of which domestic new energy passenger vehicle sales accounted for more than 50% of the total domestic passenger car sales, exceeding 50% for five consecutive months.
” It is worth mentioning that in November, China’s new energy vehicles ushered in a glorious moment of annual production of 10 million vehicles, becoming the first country in the world to produce 10 million new energy vehicles a year.
Experts estimate that this number is expected to exceed 12 million by the end of the year.
From the annual output of one million vehicles in 2018 to more than five million vehicles in 2022, and then to the milestone of 10 million vehicles for the first time in 2024, China’s new energy vehicle industry has achieved great-leap-forward development, from marketization and industrialization to scale and globalization.
But at the same time, the European electric car market is fraught with challenges, with sales of about 250000 electric vehicles in October, up only 1.
8% from a year earlier and a slowdown from September, with a market share of 24.2%. From January to October, cumulative sales of electric vehicles in Europe fell 2.
5 per cent from a year earlier, with a market share of 22 per cent.
Among them, as the largest electric vehicle market in Europe, the German electric vehicle market is likely to end with a “year-on-year decline” this year.
In October, the German electric vehicle market picked up somewhat, but its market share fell to 23.
6% from 24.
5% in the same period last year, of which the market share of pure electric vehicles (15.
3%) was even lower than that of October 2021 (17.1%). In addition, sales of diesel and gasoline vehicles in Germany have increased, which means that the overpricing of electric vehicles is the biggest factor contributing to the decline.
At present, cash-strapped German consumers cannot afford overpriced pure electric vehicles, so if the price of electric vehicles is lower than that of internal combustion engines, they will be more attractive during the recession and become a “smarter choice” for consumers.
eventually, sales of these models will grow rapidly, even exceeding those of non-electric vehicles.
Thanks to zero-emission rules, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in the UK reached 30.
2 per cent in October, up from 24.
9 per cent in the same period last year, with sales of both pure and plug-in electric vehicles increasing.
It is worth mentioning that the market share of gasoline vehicles in the UK has averaged 50.
7 per cent in the past five months and is on a slow downward trend and is expected to fall below 50 per cent in the next two months.
Due to the weak economy and government cuts in pure electric vehicle incentives, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in France fell to 23.
5% in October from 26.
5% in the same period last year, of which the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles fell from 16.
7% to 15.4%. Industry analysts say carmakers may have begun to slow the delivery of pure electric vehicles in order to release these production by 2025 to meet the EU’s stricter fleet average emissions requirements.
Norway is seen as a model of global electrification transformation, with electric vehicle penetration rising to 95.
6% in October from 91.
3% in the same period last year, and the market is expected to achieve zero emissions by 2025.
Norway leads the world in the popularity of pure electric vehicles, with 94% of new cars registered in October being pure electric vehicles.
The Norwegian government’s tax policy favours pure electric vehicles, which are exempted from the 25 per cent VAT applicable to car sales if the price of pure electric vehicles is less than 500000 Norwegian kroner (44000 euros).
In addition, Norway has invested heavily in electric vehicle charging infrastructure and allowed electric vehicles to use dedicated lanes, further promoting the popularity of electric vehicles.
It is worth noting that the European electric vehicle market is extremely sensitive to policy support, and government investment and subsidies have played a key role in promoting the popularity of pure electric vehicles.
Countries such as Norway, Denmark and Belgium have shown that well-deployed incentives and infrastructure investment can significantly increase sales of pure electric vehicles.
By contrast, Germany, Sweden, Ireland and the Netherlands have shown that the reduction or elimination of incentives will be a serious drag on the penetration and transformation speed of electric vehicles.
In addition, high prices for electric vehicles, rising interest rates and uncertainty about battery technology make internal combustion engine vehicles more attractive.
The situation in the European electric car market is further complicated by affordable gasoline prices, inadequate charging infrastructure and a wider choice of internal combustion engines.
Based on this, EV Volumes predicts that the European electric vehicle market will decline by the end of 2024, with delivery falling 2.
2 per cent year-on-year.
However, this is only a temporary downturn, which is expected to grow by 22.
8% in 2025, 20.
1% in 2026 and 21.
1% in 2027.
Sales of electric vehicles in Europe are expected to exceed 10 million by 2030, with a penetration rate of 61 per cent.
Focus on the global electric vehicle market, which is expected to perform well by the end of the year, as growth in other markets will offset the slowdown in the European market.
EV Volumes estimates that global electric vehicle registration is expected to reach 16.
9 million in 2024, an increase of 19% year-on-year and a market share of 19.
7%, 440000 higher than the forecast in July.
The global electric vehicle market penetration is expected to reach 22.
6 per cent in 2025, 44.
6 per cent in 2030 and 69.
5 per cent in 2035.
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