Global light vehicle sales are expected to be 7.
2 million in May 2024, up only 1 per cent from a year earlier, but cumulative sales are up 3.
4 per cent since the start of the year.
In that month, the annual sales rate of the global light vehicle market reached 88 million, a slight improvement from April.
Global auto market: China and the United States took the lead, while Europe fell 2.6%. Specifically, in May, China’s auto production and sales were 2.
372 million and 2.
417 million respectively, up 1.
7% and 1.
5% respectively from the same period last year.
Production dropped 1.
4% from the previous month, and sales increased by 2.
5% from the previous month.
From January to May, China’s automobile production and sales reached 11.
384 million and 11.
496 million respectively, an increase of 6.
5 per cent and 8.
3 per cent respectively over the same period last year, maintaining steady growth compared with the same period last year.
It is worth mentioning that China’s automobile exports still maintain a trend of rapid growth, with 481000 automobile exports in May, an increase of 23.
9% from January to May, an increase of 2.
308 million vehicles, an increase of 31.
3% over the same period last year.
Chen Shihua, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Association, pointed out that the good performance of automobile exports shows that Chinese automobile products are competitive in overseas markets.
However, Chen Shihua also said that at present, the overall operation of China’s automobile industry is still under great pressure, but with the relevant favorable policies to speed up the landing and sustained efforts, it will fully release the consumption potential and promote the stable development of the industry.
Meanwhile, thanks to the excellent performance of Ford, Toyota, Hyundai and Kia in the u.s. market, as well as strong demand for hybrid and electric vehicles, u.s. light vehicle sales in may are expected to rise 7% year-on-year to 1446760 units.
Thomas King, president of data and analysis at J.D. Power, said: “production in the US auto industry continues to outpace sales, leading to a rise in car inventories and increasing the likelihood of future discounts.
” Seasonally adjusted annualized car sales in the United States are estimated at 16.
08 million, exceeding 16 million for the first time this year and the highest level since December 2023.
After growing by 14.
6 per cent in 2023, US car sales growth is expected to slow to 2.
5 per cent in 2024 and 2025, given that high interest rates have affected consumer demand.
However, the European car market was slightly weak against the backdrop of the Chinese and US car markets, with new car registrations falling 2.
6 per cent in May from a year earlier to 1.
09 million.
Among the five major European car markets, sales in Italy (- 6.
6%), Germany (- 4.
3%) and France (- 2.
9%) all declined compared with the same period last year, but sales in Spain (+ 3.
4%) and the UK (+ 1.
7%) increased slightly.
Europe’s high borrowing costs and sluggish economic growth have hit consumer confidence and dragged down purchases of commodities such as cars.
Bloomberg Industry Research (Bloomberg Intelligence) analysts Gillian Davis and Mike Dean pointed out in a report that the European car market has been in short supply since the second half of 2020, but as production normalizes and orders are weak, supply exceeds demand begins to reverse and is gradually becoming one of the main risks for the European auto industry this year.
Light vehicle sales in India edged up 0.
1% in May, including a 1% drop in passenger car sales, as elections and extreme high temperatures across the country damped demand for cars and delayed buying decisions.
The Federation of Indian Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) said the extremely hot weather made customers reluctant to go to the showroom, and the number of people entering the store fell by about 18%.
The election is likely to affect car sales in India, while liquidity problems and high inventory levels continue to affect dealers’ profitability.
The Japanese car market continues to be affected by challenges such as a fraud scandal at Toyota’s subsidiaries and the January earthquake on the peninsula.
New car sales in Japan reached 312406 in May, down 4 per cent from a year earlier.
The Japanese car market has been in decline since the end of last year when Dafa was ordered to suspend all production because of a safety test fraud scandal.
In early May, Daihatsu was allowed to resume full production, and the Japanese car market is expected to resume growth in the second half of the year as the backlog of orders is gradually completed.
By contrast, the performance of the Russian car market is very bright, with sales rising 144% in May from a year earlier, constantly recovering from the impact of the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
The European Enterprise Association (AEB) even recently raised its forecast for Russian car sales in 2024 to 1.
45 million vehicles from 1.
3 million in January, as the Russian market responded better than expected to challenges such as imports and high interest rates.
On the whole, the industry remains cautious about the global auto market this year.
Global car sales grew strongly in 2023, driven by pent-up demand.
Given the weak macroeconomic background and the expected slowdown in the growth of electric vehicle sales that have been underpinned over the past few years, global car sales growth is expected to slow slightly in 2024.
As far as the region is concerned, in view of the bleak economic outlook and low consumer confidence in major regions, the agency is cautious about sales growth in all regions, including an increase of 2.
0% in the United States, 3.
0% in China and 1.
5% in Europe.
New energy vehicle market: China is up 33%, Europe is under pressure, according to data released by CleanTechnica, the global registration of electric vehicles (including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles) rose 23% to 1324141 in May compared with the same period last year, and the market continues to maintain a steady growth momentum, with the market share rising to 20% from 18% in April, of which pure electric vehicles have a market share of 13%.
Judging from the specific market, in May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China completed 940000 and 955000 respectively, up 8.
1% and 12.
4% respectively from the previous month, and 31.
9% and 33.
3% respectively over the same period last year.
The market share reached 39.
5%, approaching 40% for the first time.
However, Chen Shihua pointed out that the proportion of individual months is not enough to represent the real trend of the market, but also depends on the quarterly and annual situation.
From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China totaled 3.
926 million and 3.
895 million, an increase of 30.
7% and 32.
5% respectively over the same period last year, with a market share of 33.9%. In the Action Plan for Energy Saving and carbon reduction from 2024 to 2025, the State Council proposed to gradually abolish restrictions on the purchase of new energy vehicles in various places, implement supporting policies such as facilitating the passage of new energy vehicles, and fully release consumption potential.
By contrast, the European electric car market fared poorly in may, with registrations falling 10 per cent to 226000, with a market share of 21 per cent.
With the exception of the UK (mainly due to a 32% year-on-year increase in plug-in hybrid vehicle sales), electric vehicle sales in Germany, France, Sweden, Italy, Spain and Norway all showedA year-on-year downward trend.
At present, high inflation and high interest rates are hitting Europe’s largest electric car market.
Germany’s electric vehicle market share fell to 18.
5% in may from 22.
9% in may 2023.
Among them, German pure electric vehicle sales fell by about 31% year-on-year, and market share fell to 12.
6% from 17.
3% in the same period last year.
Plug-in hybrid vehicle sales increased slightly by 2%, and market share increased slightly to 5.
9% from 5.
6% in the same period last year.
VDIK, a German automobile industry association, also said: “since the beginning of this year, the decline in sales of pure electric vehicles in Germany has become more and more obvious, and the pure electric vehicle sector is currently suffering from a crisis of confidence.
This is mainly due to the German government’s temporary decision to abolish electric vehicle subsidies in December last year.
” In other words, it is more expensive for German consumers to buy pure electric cars at the prices before the subsidy is abolished, which has dealt a severe blow to consumers’ desire to buy cars.
In addition, the weak economy will continue to have a negative impact on the German electric car market.
As the country with the highest penetration rate of electric vehicles in Europe, Norway sold 8437 electric vehicles in May, down 28.
9% from the same period last year, and its market share was 82.
3%, down from 88.
9% in the same period last year.
Among them, the market share of Norwegian pure electric vehicles fell from 80.
7% to 77.
0%, and the market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles fell from 8.
2% to 5.3%. This reflects the impact of Norway’s weak economy and high interest rates on the car market.
The Norwegian Road Traffic Information Commission (OFV) said in its April report that “the economic situation is more tense.
” Norwegian residents are spending more moderately and choose to buy smaller, more affordable new cars.
We may have to wait until we cut interest rates for the first time before Norwegian residents return to optimistic spending.
” It is not difficult to see that the European electric car market is still in the doldrums.
The monthly penetration rate of electric vehicles in Germany is less than 20%, while the penetration rate of electric vehicles in Norway is only 82.
3%, far below the previous long-held record of more than 90%, and Spain and Italy are unable to break through the penetration rate of 10%.
The transformation of electrification in Europe has a long way to go.
On the whole, the process of global electrification may slow down this year, but the growth trend will continue.
According to a forecast released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in April, global electric vehicle sales will reach 17 million in 2024, up from 14 million in 2023, of which 10 million will come from China, the world’s largest car market.
On the one hand, a series of negative factors such as the cancellation or gradual decline of subsidies for electric vehicles in various countries, inadequate charging infrastructure, persistently high inflation and interest rates, and the lack of affordable electric models are dragging down the process of global electrification transformation.
On the other hand, the transformation of the global automobile industry to electrification is the trend of the times, while Chinese car companies are accelerating “going out to sea” and sending out many high-quality and inexpensive electric models, which will promote the sustainable development of the market to a certain extent.
As the International Energy Agency says, the global transition to clean energy is unstoppable.
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