Global light vehicle sales are expected to be 8 million in March 2024, up 2 per cent year-on-year and more than 4 per cent year-on-year so far this year.
However, the annual global sales rate of light vehicles is 85 million, roughly the same as in February, but still weak compared with the second half of last year.
In March, the global auto market: China and the United States took the lead, while Europe fell 2.8%. In March, China’s auto production and sales were 2.
687 million and 2.
694 million respectively, up 78.
4% and 70.
2% month-on-month, and 4% and 9.
9% over the same period last year.
In the first quarter, the cumulative production and sales of Chinese cars were 6.
606 million and 6.
72 million, up 6.
4% and 10.
6% from the same period last year, making a good start to the first quarter, the highest level in 2019.
Chen Shihua, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said that after the Spring Festival, a large number of new cars were on the market, auto shows, cars going to the countryside and other offline activities were carried out one after another, and “trade-in” promotion policies were introduced in some areas, driving car sales to grow rapidly month-on-month and year-on-year.
“the growth in the first quarter of this year was largely affected by a low base in the same period last year.
” He also pointed out that at present, exports are an important aspect of growth, while insufficient domestic demand is a key problem that needs to be solved this year.
Chen Shihua also said, “in 2024, the domestic automobile growth rate is likely to show a development trend of high before and low after.
” Before the introduction of the “trade-in” policy, the annual sales of the domestic car market in 2024 are likely to be the same as last year.
However, after the introduction and implementation of the policy, the overall domestic auto market will grow greatly.
” The US car market also grew by more than 5 per cent in March and the first quarter, thanks to increased inventories, healthy growth in fleet sales and a sharp rise in incentives to stimulate retail demand.
Among them, light vehicle sales in the United States are expected to be 1.
44 million in March, an increase of 5.
5% over the same period last year and the 20th consecutive month of growth.
Analysts point out that rising borrowing costs and rising prices for new cars are a drag on the market, with many consumers turning to smaller, cheaper cars.
“in this era of extremely high interest rates, price is the key, and consumers are very concerned about monthly loans,” said Jessica Caldwell, head of sales and insight for the automotive industry at Edmunds.
Automakers will have the greatest success if they can provide eye-catching automotive products at competitive prices.
” David Oakley, sales Forecast Manager for GlobalData Americas, said, “We continue to see signs that the segments that perform well are usually those with lower prices, while demand for higher-priced models is starting to slow.
Sales of major manufacturers vary, with brands with an aging product lineup and / or no incentives left behind.
Given the relatively strong sales a year ago, the situation in April will be of concern.
” While the Chinese and American markets grew, the number of new car registrations in Europe reached 1.
38 million in March, down 2.
8% from a year earlier, the second year-on-year decline in four months, mainly due to weak demand (especially for electric vehicles) and Easter.
With the exception of the UK (+ 10.
4 per cent), sales fell in Germany (- 6.
2 per cent), Spain (- 4.
7 per cent), Italy (- 3.
7 per cent) and France (- 1.
5 per cent), while Norwegian car sales hit their lowest level in 15 years.
The decline in new car sales in Europe in March also highlighted the pressure on carmakers at a time of rising interest rates, weak economic growth and declining subsidies to stimulate demand for electric vehicles.
However, thanks to a more favourable supply environment, GlobalData expects passenger car sales in western Europe to exceed 12 million in 2024, the strongest annual sales performance since COVID-19 ‘s outbreak.
New car sales in Japan reached 451444 in March, down 21% from a year earlier.
Total new car sales in Japan fell 18% to 1131140 in the first quarter.
The Japanese car market has been falling sharply since Daihatsu announced at the end of December that it had stopped production because of a safety test fraud scandal, and sales of some Toyota, Mazda and Subaru models have also been affected.
Although Dafa resumed the delivery of some models, the follow-up situation is still uncertain.
However, the Japanese car market has also encountered some good signs.
The Bank of Japan (Bank of Japan) ended its negative interest rate policy in March and household spending is expected to pick up as wages across the country have risen recently.
South Korea’s overall car market sales fell 11.
6% in March from a year earlier.
Among them, sales of South Korea’s top five carmakers in South Korea fell 15% year-on-year, largely due to Hyundai’s suspension of production due to factory refurbishment and production line maintenance, as well as fewer working days as a result of the New year holiday.
However, imported car sales in South Korea reversed the decline of the previous two months, rising 6 per cent year-on-year to 25263 vehicles.
However, the central bank of Korea has sharply raised interest rates from 0.
5% to 3.
5% in the past few years, putting increasing pressure on debt-laden South Korean consumers.
On the whole, without taking into account some factors such as holidays, the global light vehicle market in 2024 is off to a good start.
However, the global car market still faces many challenges: higher interest rates, tighter affordability, uncertainty in the supply chain and the persistence of the “throes” of electrified transformation.
Analyst Colin Couchman said: “We are cautious about the recovery of the global auto market in 2024, and the auto industry will move away from obvious supply-side risks and enter a more vague macro demand environment.
” Based on this, global light vehicle sales are expected to reach 92.
4 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2 per cent.
In March, the new energy vehicle market: China rose 35%, while Europe fell 7.4%. According to market research firm Rho Motion, global sales of electric vehicles (including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles) are expected to be 1.
23 million in March 2024, up 12% from a year earlier.
Specifically, the company expects electric vehicle sales to grow by 27% in china, 15% in the u.s. and Canada, but down 9% in Europe.
Rho Motion believes that growth in China and the United States offset the decline in the European market.
Demand for electric vehicles has cooled in recent months as consumers wait for more affordable electric models to hit the market.
But Charles Lester, data manager at Rho Motion, said: “overall, growth in global electric vehicle sales has slowed, but there are still some positive factors.
” Specifically, in March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China completed 863000 and 883000 respectively, an increase of 28.
1% and 35.
3% respectively over the same period last year, and the market share reached 32.8%. First quarterThe production and marketing of new energy vehicles in China completed 2.
115 million and 2.
09 million respectively, an increase of 28.
2% and 31.
8% respectively over the same period last year, and the market share reached 31.1%. Luo Lei, assistant president of the China Automobile Circulation Association, said, “from the March data, the overall penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 41%, the penetration rate exceeded 50% in the first half of April, and it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles market this year may exceed 40%.
” At present, China’s new energy vehicle industry is in a period of rapid improvement and has great potential for development.
At the same time, the situation in the European electric car market is not optimistic, with sales falling 7.4%. Sales of pure electric vehicles in Europe fell 11 per cent in March from a year earlier as demand cooled in Germany, Sweden and Norway.
Among them, pure electric vehicle sales in Italy and Germany fell 34% and 29% respectively compared with the same period last year.
Italian consumers are delaying the purchase of electric cars in anticipation of new government subsidies.
The German government abolished subsidies for pure electric vehicles last year, and subsidies paid out of their own pockets by car companies were of no avail.
The further popularity of electric vehicles in Europe is limited by weak market demand, the elimination of incentives, anxiety about mileage, uncertain economic prospects and the lack of affordable models.
As Volkswagen and Stellantis say, the market in 2024 will be tough due to weak global demand for electric vehicles, increased competition from Chinese competitors, continuing cost pressures and geopolitical tensions.
In Germany, Europe’s largest car market, electric vehicle sales fell 22 per cent in March from a year earlier, with a market share of 18.
0 per cent (compared with 21.
6 per cent in the same period last year), still affected by the sudden cancellation of subsidies at the end of December.
Of this total, German pure electric vehicle sales were 31384, down about 29 per cent from a year earlier, with a market share of 11.
9 per cent (15.
7 per cent in the same period last year).
plug-in hybrid vehicle sales fell 4.
5 per cent year on year, with a market share of 6.
1 per cent (compared with 6 per cent in the same period last year).
The German economy is in recession with a consumer confidence index of minus 27.
4 points, which is still very negative.
The data show that the overpricing of low-and medium-priced pure electric vehicles in Germany, coupled with the widespread economic recession and the cancellation of subsidy policies, have led to a year-on-year decline in sales of pure electric vehicles in Germany.
The share of pure electric vehicles in the German car market is also shrinking.
At the same time, European carmakers are making record profits.
As the fastest electrified market in Europe, the market share of Norwegian electric vehicles reached 91.
5% in March, up from 91.
1% in the same period last year.
Pure electric vehicles alone accounted for nearly 90%, while plug-in hybrids accounted for 2.2%. Tesla Model Y is once again the best-selling car in Norway, topping the list for the eighth month in a row, with March sales almost equal to the last seven pure electric cars combined! The overall decline in the Norwegian car market and pure electric vehicle sales may reflect continued weakness in the overall economy, with both consumer and business confidence negative.
The Norwegian Road Traffic Information Commission (OFV) also blamed the economy for the sharp decline in sales.
“New car sales are usually a barometer of people’s financial situation, reflecting the financial challenges that many people are experiencing.
” OFV also said: “compared with the past five or six years, most people now choose new cars that are smaller and more affordable.
” This will affect new car sales in the future.
Many major carmakers now see great potential for small affordable cars, especially small affordable electric vehicles, and are shifting some of their production to this area.
In the future, there will be many smaller and more affordable new electric vehicles on the Norwegian market.
” The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that despite economic challenges in some markets, global electric vehicle sales will reach 17 million in 2024, up from 14 million in 2023.
“meagre profits, fluctuating battery metal prices, high inflation and the phasing out of purchase subsidies in some countries have raised concerns about the growth rate of the electric vehicle industry, but global sales figures remain strong,” the IEA said.
” Compared with traditional cars, price is still the key to the growth of the electric vehicle industry, and prices vary widely in different regions.
As JATO said in a report released last October, “consumers spend at least 18285 euros on an all-electric car in Europe and at least 24400 euros ($26500) in the United States, which is 92 per cent and 146 per cent more expensive than the cheapest fuel vehicles, respectively.
” This is largely because the auto industry continues to focus on high-end electric cars rather than mid-range cars that are more affordable.
Many Western carmakers have raised prices, while consumers have to wait longer to buy new cars.
For many OEM, this strategy has paid off.
In 2022, most automakers saw a decline in sales, but increased revenue and record profits.
” The International Energy Agency believes that price and charging infrastructure will be the key to the future growth of the electric vehicle market.
In the future, reducing the price of electric vehicles and improving the charging infrastructure should still be the top priority for the automobile industry to achieve green transformation! , return to the first electric network home page >.
