Global light vehicle sales are expected to exceed 6 million in February 2024, but down 2.
8 per cent from a year earlier, mainly due to a decline in sales in China.
However, the annual global sales rate of light vehicles has risen from 82 million in January to 85 million in February, but it is still weak compared with the second half of last year.
Global auto market: sales in China fell 20%, while the United States and Europe continued to grow.
specifically, in February, China’s auto production and sales were 1.
506 million and 1.
584 million, down 37.
5% and 35.
1% respectively from the previous month, and 25.
9% and 19.
9% respectively from the same period last year.
In this regard, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Association, pointed out that February is the Spring Festival month, the effective working days have decreased, and some of the car purchase demand has been released before the Spring Festival, and car production and sales have generally dropped compared with January.
From January to February, the cumulative production and sales of Chinese cars reached 3.
919 million and 4.
026 million, an increase of 8.
1% and 11.
1% over the same period last year.
Among them, passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles continued to run smoothly, and exports of new energy vehicles and vehicles continued to perform well.
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, stressed that judging from the performance in the first two months of this year, the car market is still at a normal level of development.
Chen Shihua also said, “the further refinement and implementation of follow-up relevant policies will help to continuously consolidate and expand the steady development trend of the automobile industry, stimulate the driving force for enterprise innovation, and promote the high-quality development of the automobile industry.
” At the same time, the US light vehicle market has rebounded from the January downturn, mainly due to greater discounts for consumers, increased inventory at dealerships and more car choices.
Us sales of new cars and light trucks are expected to reach 1.
25 million in February, up 9.
2 per cent from a year earlier and the 19th consecutive month of year-on-year growth, with average daily sales rising to 50, 000 from 42400 in January, GlobalData said in a report.
It is worth mentioning that hybrid cars are “like a fish in water” in the American market.
Toyota and Honda also saw double-digit growth in hybrid vehicle sales in February.
Hyundai’s best-selling model, the Tucson compact crossover, set delivery records for plug-in hybrids (up 280 per cent) and gas-electric hybrids (up 29 per cent).
and Ford hybrid deliveries rose 32 per cent to 12045.
While the US car market rebounded, the European car market also shrugged off the downward trend at the end of 2023 and maintained year-on-year growth for two consecutive months.
Europe registered 995059 new cars in February, up 10 per cent from a year earlier, as carmakers such as Volkswagen and Stellantis began to deliver a backlog of orders.
Among them, the five largest car markets in Europe all achieved year-on-year growth, with double-digit growth in the UK (+ 14%), France (+ 13%) and Italy (+ 12.
8%), followed by Spain (+ 9.
9%) and Germany (+ 5.4%). For now, carmakers are off to a healthy start to the year in Europe, but rising borrowing costs and a recession in Germany, Europe’s largest car market, are likely to reduce consumer demand.
In addition, some countries are phasing out incentives for electric vehicles, which will also have an impact on sales.
India’s light vehicle market is about to usher in a record year.
GlobalData executive Ammar Master commented: “the Indian market has made a solid start in 2024, with wholesale light vehicle sales up 12% in January from a year earlier, although sales were also strong in the same period last year.
Preliminary data for February further showed that sales were up about 9 per cent year-on-year, driven by new models such as Hyundai Creta revamping.
” GlobalData predicts that strong economic expansion, fiscal stimulus, continued demand for SUV and activity in new models are expected to push India’s wholesale sales to a record 4.
9 million in 2024.
New car sales in Japan fell 19.
2 per cent in February from a year earlier to 344816, the second consecutive month of decline, mainly due to a certification testing scandal that led to about 80 per cent and 30 per cent decline in new car sales in Japan, respectively.
After the exposure of certification fraud, Dafa suspended shipments of all domestic models, so sales fell about 60 per cent in January.
Dafa resumed shipments of some models in February after confirming the safety of some models, but sales will still be affected.
An official with the Japan Association of Light vehicles and Motorcycles said: “it is not clear when Dafa will be able to resume shipments of Tanto and other popular models, so March may also be bad.
” New car sales in South Korea fell 18.
9% from a year earlier.
Among them, sales of imported cars in South Korea fell by 25%, mainly affected by high interest rates, fierce competition from South Korean manufacturers, the Lunar New year holiday, shipping delays caused by rising tensions in the Red Sea, and other factors.
local sales of South Korea’s top five manufacturers also fell sharply by 18%, mainly due to the suspension of Hyundai production line for maintenance and restructuring, as well as the New year holiday.
In addition, overall demand for new cars in South Korea remains sluggish, and consumer spending is affected by the central bank’s sharp increase in interest rates from 0.
5% to 3.
5% in the past few years, which is likely to continue to affect sales in the Korean car market in the future.
On the whole, without taking into account special factors (Spring Festival), the global light vehicle market basically got off to a good start in 2024, and the positive sales momentum in 2023 is expected to continue in 2024, but after strong growth in the previous year, due to the weak macroeconomic background, the sales rate will slow down greatly.
In addition, the global popularity of electric vehicles is expected to slow, which has played a supporting role in the past few years.
As a result, global light vehicle sales are expected to reach 92.
4 million in 2024, up slightly from a year earlier.
New energy vehicle market: production and sales in China are falling, while Europe is growing by 11%.
After several years of sharp growth, global sales demand for electric vehicles has cooled in recent months as consumers look forward to the launch of more affordable models.
Market research firm Rho Motion estimates that global sales of electric vehicles (including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids) will be about 800000 in February 2024, up only 3% from a year earlier, mainly due to the Chinese Spring Festival.
“the reason for the low growth is that China is still the dominant market for electric vehicles,” said Charles Lester, data manager at Rho Motion.
Specifically, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 464000 and 477000 respectively in February, down 41.
1% and 34.
6% respectively from the previous month, and 16% and 9.
2% respectively from the same period last year, with a market share of 30.
1% (up 0.
2 percentage points from 29.
9% in January).
, of whichThe production and sales of pure electric vehicles in China in February were 280000 and 294000 respectively, down 28% and 21.
8% respectively from the same period last year.
the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were both 183000, up 12.
5% and 22.
4% respectively over the same period last year.
and the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were completed, up 187% and 370% respectively over the same period last year, making it the fastest growing market segment for new energy.
From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles totaled 1.
252 million and 1.
207 million, up 28.
2% and 29.
4% respectively over the same period last year, with a market share of 30%.
At the same time, sales of electric vehicles (including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles) in Europe reached 204000, up 10.
9% from a year earlier, with a market share of 20.5%. It is worth mentioning that pure electric vehicles have failed to grab more share of the European market due to falling demand in markets such as Germany and Sweden.
First of all, as Europe’s largest electric vehicle market, German electric vehicle sales reached 42054 in February, down 5% from a year earlier, and market share fell to 19.
3% from 21.
5% in the same period last year.
Among them, pure electric vehicle sales fell by about 15%, market share fell to 12.
6% from 15.
7% in the same period last year, plug-in hybrid vehicle sales increased by about 22%, and market share increased from 5.
8% to 6.7%. It is not difficult to see that at present, the German electric car market is still affected by the government’s sudden cancellation of car purchase incentives in December last year.
The German pure electric car market is in chaos after the government scrapped incentives, and it may take months to find a new balance.
At present, the German economy is still in recession.
In this economic environment, the German car market is expected to remain weak in 2024, including the pure electric vehicle market.
However, thanks to the long-term cost advantage of car ownership, the market share of German pure electric vehicles should continue to increase slowly.
At the same time, in Norway, Europe’s fastest electrified market, electric vehicles still account for more than 90% of the overall car market.
Specifically, Norway’s electric vehicle market share reached 92.
1% in February, up from 90.
1% in the same period last year.
It is worth mentioning that Tesla sold 1747 Model Y vehicles in Norway, accounting for almost 1/4 of the entire market.
Among them, the market share of Norwegian pure electric vehicles has increased to 90.
1% from 83.
1% in the same period last year, and has exceeded 90% for the second month in a row.
the market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles has dropped from 7.
0% to 2.0%. From January 1, 2024, all non-pure electric vehicles in Norway will face higher taxes to help the country meet its goal of “100% electrification by 2025”, which has led to unusually low sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles in Norway over the past two months.
But ordinary people in Norway are feeling the “chill” of economic austerity, with higher taxes on non-pure electric cars, but there are few affordable electric cars on the market.
The cheapest pure electric car in Norway is the Nissan LEAF, which is 39 kilowatt hours, with a starting price of 232600 Norwegian kroner (about 20400 euros, excluding sales tax).
The corollary of these factors is a decline in overall car sales in Norway.
The new policy change in Norway has upset the balance of the electric car market, which will not appear until at least the middle of the second quarter.
Overall, mileage anxiety, uncertain economic prospects and the lack of affordable models have limited the further popularity of electric vehicles, and the global electric vehicle industry is under tremendous pressure, especially in the European market.
In addition, the European market is also facing the dilemma of abolishing incentives for electric vehicles.
Jean-Dominique Senard, chairman of Renault Group, also said recently: “subsidies should not be permanent, but we need subsidies now.
” Germany’s decision to abolish subsidies in December has greatly destabilized the electric car market, which could lead to some decline in demand, especially in 2024.
” “sales of new energy vehicles in Europe have begun to slow,” Bloomberg industry research analysts Gillian Davis and Michael Dean said in a report.
As consumers’ desire to buy weakens, the share of new energy vehicles in the entire European market is likely to stagnate this year.
” Despite many challenges, the global electrification transformation is still the trend of the times.
Global electric vehicle sales will continue to grow this year, but the growth rate will slow.
Global electric vehicle sales more than doubled in 2021, 62% in 2022 and 31% in 2023, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).
BNEF predicts that it will slow to 21% again in 2024.
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