In the first half of 2024, passenger car sales grew by 6% compared with the same period last year, with new energy vehicles and export markets becoming growth engines.
However, the price war in the industry is becoming more and more fierce, the market competition is becoming more and more fierce, and the operating pressure of enterprises is increasing.
In order to meet the challenges, automobile companies have adopted diversified strategies such as accelerating technological innovation, intensively launching new intelligent electric products, and actively expanding overseas markets to seek a new growth curve.
At the same time, with the continuous improvement of self-driving and intelligent cockpit technology, consumers’ attention to intelligence has increased significantly, and intelligence has gradually become the core selling point for car companies to release new products.
Based on the performance of the car market in the first half of 2024, in order to look better and understand the follow-up development of the car market in 2024, the Gaishi Automotive Research Institute completed the analysis report “Review and Prospect of China’s passenger car Market in the first half of 2024”.
Focus on the macro-economy and the characteristics of the car market analysis, the first half of China’s passenger car market review, the future trend of the three aspects of in-depth analysis The core points of this report are as follows: 1.
analysis of the characteristics of the macro-economy and the car market, the international and domestic environment is still complex and changeable: the global economy maintains a good growth trend and the overall performance is better than expected.
However, inflationary pressure is repeated, which has become the core issue that the market is most concerned about.
The global economy still faces the challenges of inflation stickiness, geopolitics, trade protection, election year and many other factors.
China’s economic growth continues to recover, and the overall operation is stable.
Affected by the equipment renewal policy and the strong demand for overseas replenishment, investment in exports, industrial production and manufacturing rebounded in the first half of the year.
The state and local governments have issued a series of policies and measures aimed at promoting automobile consumption and promoting the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry, such as standardizing the underwriting of new energy vehicle insurance, adjusting car loans, promoting the electrification of public vehicles, and carrying out the policy of exchanging old cars for new ones and going to the countryside with new energy.
The price war in the car market intensified in the first half of the year, and tended to level off in the second half of the year.
At present, in China’s automobile market, there are many brands, many models, fast updating and iterative speed, the market competition pattern is still unstable, and price war is inevitable.
The intensification of competition in the automobile market will accelerate the reshaping of the competition pattern in China’s automobile market, and marginal enterprises will face the risk of shutting down and merging.
In the first half of the year, the competition in the automobile market is fierce, the management pressure of the terminal channel is great, and the passenger car market is in the state of destocking, but the inventory pressure is still great.
The inventory early warning index is always above the rise and fall line, and the automobile industry is in a depressed range.
The structure of automobile consumer groups is gradually changing to increase and purchase, the upgrading demand of users is increasing, and intelligence has gradually become the key factor for consumers to buy cars.
under the trend of intelligence, L2 has become the main driving assistance scheme, and the permeability of diversified configuration of intelligent cockpit components has increased significantly.
Automobile enterprises speed up the pace of strategic transformation, and independent car enterprises jointly strengthen and strengthen intelligence to cope with fierce competition through the construction of ecological cooperation.
joint venture car enterprises promote the strategic landing of “for China in China” by launching Chinese-style products / brands and strengthening the construction of local ecosphere.
A review of China’s passenger car market in the first half of 2024 showed that a total of 11.
98 million passenger cars were sold in the first half of 2024, an increase of 6.
3% over the same period last year.
Among them, independent car companies and new power brands rely on good product technology configuration, novel appearance and pricing advantages, achieved good performance in the domestic market, foreign markets and middle and high-end market segments, and the market share rose rapidly to 61.8%. In the first half of 2024, the export market of domestic passenger cars reached 2.
34 million, an increase of 31% over the same period last year.
Russia, Mexico and Brazil became the top three destinations for China’s passenger car exports in the first half of the year.
Chery, SAIC passenger cars and BYD ranked among the top three on the list of train companies’ export sales.
Head-to-sea car companies continue to steadily promote the construction of overseas production bases in key markets such as Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Russia.
From the perspective of the new energy vehicle market, sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 4.
7 million in the first half of the year, with a market share of 39.2%. Among them, the share of PHEV+REEV continues to expand, mainly due to the iterative upgrading of domestic DHT hybrid technology, which can better meet the market demand of the current development stage with the advantages of economy and high performance-to-price ratio.
At present, the permeability of new energy in all-line cities is uneven, and the third-tier cities and below still have development potential.
Looking forward to the future trend, in the short term, considering the macro-economy, industrial policy and competition situation, China’s domestic passenger car market will maintain a growth rate of about 2.
8% in 2024.
Among them, the export market and new energy vehicles represented by extended range and plug-in hybrid vehicles will continue to maintain rapid growth.
On the export side, affected by the tariff adjustments of the European Union, Brazil and Turkey, the growth rate of passenger car exports in the second half of the year is expected to be relatively flat, with exports for the whole year expected to be 4.
81 million vehicles.
among them, exports to Russia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia will maintain growth for the whole year, and exports to Europe, Australia and New Zealand are expected to decline slightly compared with the same period last year.
in the long run, the domestic passenger car market has entered a stage of low stock growth.
New energy vehicles and overseas exports have become the core drivers of market expansion, and China’s passenger car market is expected to be close to 27.
4 million in 2025 and 30.
4 million in 2030.
For a complete report, welcome to click [Market Analysis] Review and Prospect of China’s passenger car market in the first half of 2024.
In the first half of 2024, the pace of global economic recovery was different, inflation in the United States and Europe was out of sync with monetary policy, and although the Sino-US economic cycle resonated in the short term, the interaction tended to weaken.
in the first half of the year, China’s overall economic operation was stable, with outstanding performance in exports, manufacturing investment and industrial production.
However, real estate investment remains in the doldrums and domestic terminal demand remains weak.
At the policy end, in order to promote automobile consumption, the state and local governments have introduced automobile “trade-in”, new energy to the countryside, new energy purchase tax relief, car purchase financial and credit support, supporting concessions for enterprises, and so on.
A number of subsidies and preferential measures will form a policy combination to ensure the stable development of the automobile market.
This year, under the leadership of the head independent new energy car company, a large-scale price war has come faster and wider than last year.
According to statistics, more than 40 car brands and 130 models have participated in the price war, with comprehensive price coverage and continuous upgrading of concessions.
In the second half of the year, some car companies represented by “BMW” chose to “reduce and protect prices” and announced their withdrawal from the price war, and the overall market price war situation has eased somewhat.
but the essential reason for the price war has not changed, and the price war will still be a protracted war.
The sustained high growth of new energy and exports led to the upward development of the overall auto market.
Sales of passenger cars in China were close to 12 million in the first half of the year, and new cars of “electricity is lower than oil” are on the market intensively.
Driven by factors such as the implementation of the “trade-in” policy and supporting innovative promotion activities by local governments and automobile companies, sales increased by 6.
3% year-on-year.
In the first half of the year, sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 4.
7 million, a year-on-year increase of 31.6%. Among them, sales of plug-in and extended range grew rapidly, and their market share continued to expand, becoming the core driving force for growth in the new energy market.
In the new energy market segment, the ratio of pure electricity and plug-in and mixed has gradually shifted from 7:3 to 6:4.
The rapid growth of plug-in hybrid sales is due to the fact that independent car companies are accelerating the technical layout of hybrid products, which can better meet the market demand at the current stage of development with advantages such as economy and high cost performance.
, The penetration rate of new energy in cities at all levels has developed unevenly, with cities above the second tier developing rapidly, with penetration rates exceeding 42%.
Cities above the third tier and below are developing relatively slowly, especially in the fourth and fifth tier cities.
Affected by factors such as regional temperature, road conditions and charging facilities, the penetration rate of new energy is less than 40%.
Exports have become the second curve of auto market sales growth, with markets in Russia, America, Europe and Southeast Asia becoming the focus of exports.
from the perspective of export destination countries, Russia, Mexico, and Brazil have become the top three export destinations for China’s passenger car exports in the first half of the year.
Brazil, Russia’s exports increased the most year-on-year, with Brazil’s exports mainly new energy, and exports surged due to expected tariff increases.
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