In 2023, “Volume” almost ran through China’s passenger car market for a whole year.
From Tesla’s price reduction at the beginning of the year, set off a wave of price reduction in the new energy market, and then to Dongfeng Citroen and Dongfeng Peugeot hit the slogan of 90,000 yuan price reduction, thoroughly stirred the traditional car market, to the end of the year, almost most car companies have participated in this wave of price reduction.
In addition to the price, the Chinese auto market has been involved in almost every aspect, such as intelligent driving, intelligent configuration, export, marketing channels and so on.
Because of the volume, China’s passenger car market has set a number of historical records in terms of independent market share, exports, new energy and so on.
Among them, the sales of self-branded passenger cars in 2023 was 14.
596 million, up 24.
1% from the same period last year, and the market share rose 6.
1% to 56% from the same period last year.
Centering on the characteristics of the macro-economy and the automobile market, the analysis of the competitive situation of automobile enterprises, and the trend outlook for 2024, the GASI released the China passenger car market outlook report in 2024.
GAIR expects the market share of domestic passenger car independent brands to reach 62% in 2024 and more than 70% in 2030.
In 2024, China’s passenger car market will continue to “roll”.
According to the Global Automotive Research Institute, as some joint venture car companies still have price cuts, superimposed electric vehicles rely on scale volume to dilute fixed costs and lithium prices fall.
there is still room for price reduction for automotive products, and the 2023 price war will continue in 2024.
The strong Hengqiang will highlight the Matthew effect in China’s passenger car market in 2023.
Among them, independent brand car companies and Tesla have a larger growth rate.
Joint venture brands, FAW-Volkswagen, brilliance BMW, Beijing Mercedes-Benz rely on oil products the overall market remains stable.
On the contrary, several second-tier traditional car companies that have failed to successfully transform new energy are going downhill, and some new energy car companies are facing the risk of thunderstorm.
On the whole, however, independent car companies and new power brands have achieved good performance in the domestic market, foreign markets, as well as middle and high-end market segments by virtue of good product technology configuration, novel appearance and pricing advantages, and the market share has increased rapidly, reaching 56%.
Among them, BYD, Chery, Geely, Guangzhou Automobile, ideal and other sales increment contributed more.
Relatively speaking, the market shares of European, Japanese and Korean, and American are all in a declining trend, while because of Tesla’s blessing, the US is the one with the least decline among factions.
From the perspective of the product structure of new energy passenger vehicles, a total of 8.
97 million new energy passenger vehicles were sold in China in 2023, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 34.5%. The share of PHEV+REEV continues to expand, mainly because its products can better meet the market demand at the current stage of development with the advantages of low energy consumption and high cost performance.
The sales of new energy passenger cars in China can set an all-time high, thanks to many factors, such as falling costs, export growth, consumption upgrading and so on.
In terms of cost, with the marginal decline of battery costs and intelligent software technology research and development expenses, the product configuration and pricing of new models continue to decline.
At present, the prices of B-class, C-class pure electric or plug-in hybrid models of some car companies are comparable to those of fuel vehicles of the same class.
For example, in the price range of 5-100000 yuan, new energy has Wuling colorful fruits and BYD seagulls, while in the price range of 10-200000 yuan, BYD, Chang’an, Chery and Volkswagen are all in this layout.
On the export side, the export market of China’s passenger cars has exceeded expectations.
Data show that China’s export sales of passenger cars totaled 4.
14 million in 2023, an increase of 64 percent over the same period last year, becoming the core driving force for the growth of the domestic car market.
Among them, Chery’s export volume continued to strengthen, with Shanghai Auto passenger cars and Tesla ranking second and third respectively, while BYD’s export volume also tripled compared with the same period last year, making it the car company with the largest increase in export sales among the top 10.
The increase in luxury car sales was driven by the upgrading of consumption.
Sales of luxury brands reached 4.
39 million in 2023, an increase of 24.
5% compared with 2022, of which luxury products from new energy car companies became the largest source of incremental contribution.
For example, sales of car companies focusing on high-end luxury, such as ideal and Mojie, are growing so fast that Gai Shi Automotive Research Institute predicts that sales of luxury brands in China will double by 2030.
With the continuous deepening of new energy electrification, in order to better distinguish from traditional fuel vehicles and cover market users in different price segments, the trend of domestic and foreign car companies adopting multi-brand strategy is becoming more and more obvious.
Such as Dongfeng, Changan, BYD, Geely, Chery and Dongfeng Honda.
Where there is competition, there will be progress.
The increasingly fierce competition among domestic car companies is also pushing up the overall sales.
Today, niche market segments are also bustling.
For example, the pure electric MPV market has new Xiaopeng X9, Volvo EM90 and so on, and the ideal MEGA will also be listed in March this year.
on the hard off-road SUV, BYD looks up at the U8 tank 700s, Toyota Prado, etc.
, and the pure electric supercar also looks up at the U9, Hopin SSR and so on.
However, under the harmony, the Chinese car market also needs to be vigilant: first, China’s passenger car capacity is facing the risk of excess capacity.
In 2023, the average monthly sales of 33 of the 77 car companies are less than 5000 vehicles, and the average capacity utilization rate of the automobile industry is less than 50%.
Most marginal car companies are in jeopardy and face the risk of shutting down and turning over.
However, Tesla, Guangzhou Automobile, the ideal capacity utilization rate can still reach 100%.
Secondly, inventory pressure is relatively high in the first half of 2023.
Due to the weak demand in the automobile market in the first half of the year, the inventory early warning index and inventory coefficient are above the warning line, and the inventory pressure in the industry is relatively high, but with the increase in car sales in the second half of the year, the inventory pressure has also eased.
The Global Automotive Research Institute said that compared with the inventory coefficient in previous years, the current inventory is still at a more reasonable level.
How did the car companies roll up in 2023? In 2023, China’s passenger car market can be described as a “fairy fight”.
In terms of new energy, independent traditional car companies such as BYD, Changan and Geely have all achieved good results.
Foreign brands such as Volkswagen and General Motors are also stepping up efforts to transform new energy.
Huawei, ideals and other new forces are very loud.
in terms of exports, Chery and SAIC passenger cars have made a lot of gains.
Specifically, Changan and Geely adopt multi-brand strategy and strengthen new energy subdivision models to expand the market.
In terms of sales, Geely sold a total of 487500 new energy vehicles, an increase of more than 48 per cent over the same period last year.
Changan Automobile sold 2.
0978 million vehicles under its own brand, an increase of 11.
91% over the same period last year.
Moreover, Changan and Geely will continue to improve the adjustment of their brand portfolio, focusing on promoting new energy and brands in the futureAnd overseas market expansion, sales of Changan and Geely are expected to reach 1.
83 million and 1.
93 million respectively in 2024.
Among the new forces, Huawei and Xiaomi are expected to become important market forces.
At the end of 2023, Huawei launched Hongmeng Zhihang, an upgraded version of Smart car, which can cover the full-link car ecology from definition, design to after-sale.
It has attracted a number of cooperative car companies, and Galaxy is expected to sell 490000 cars in 2024.
With its first SU7 product, Xiaomi is still hot, and we expect to maintain market sales of about 70, 000 vehicles in 2024.
However, in this era of stock competition, some people go up and some people fall.
Nowadays, domestic new brands and new power players have entered the development stage of scale and survival of the fittest.
At present, only ideal cars have crossed the break-even point, and most new power brand car companies still need to continue to expand on a large scale.
In terms of exports, Chery passenger cars and Shanghai passenger cars accounted for 52% and 58% of the company’s sales in 2023, respectively, becoming the core source of sales growth for the two enterprises.
According to the Global Automotive Research Institute, Chery will focus on promoting the dual development of new energy products and overseas exports in 2024, and its annual sales are expected to reach 2.
26 million vehicles.
In the area of new energy, joint venture car companies have also begun to make efforts.
Nowadays, Volkswagen, GM, BMW and other auto companies have begun to actively promote the listing and large-scale development of new and new energy products.
However, due to policy, technology and other reasons, most joint venture car companies have postponed the release of new platform new energy products to 2025.
For example, Volkswagen’s plan is that the new PPE platform and the second-generation MEB+ platform plan to launch new products by the end of 2024, the domestic exclusive pure electric vehicle platform CMP.
Toyota will launch a new electric vehicle platform in 2026, and Honda will promote mass production of the brand new pure electric structure eRue N Architecture W concept model in 2025.
In addition, Mercedes-Benz and BMW joint ventures in China have said they plan to launch a pure electric platform in 2025.
In order to promote the transformation of new energy, foreign-funded enterprises began to take the initiative to seek cooperation with independent car companies.
The Global Automotive Research Institute said that the localized in-depth layout and cooperation in the post-joint venture era will become the new normal of industrial development, and local car companies and high-quality suppliers and technology enterprises will also carry out relevant ecological chain cooperation in the global market.
For example, in July last year, Volkswagen increased its investment in Xiaopeng Motor by about US $700 million.
The two sides will jointly develop two B-class pure electric vehicles, which will be sold in the Chinese market under the Volkswagen brand.
SAIC Audi will rely on Zhiji electric platform to build a new generation of electric vehicles.
Volkswagen’s CARIAD has also set up a joint venture with Horizon to develop highly optimized full-stack advanced driving assistance systems and self-driving solutions for the Chinese market, which is expected to be launched in 2024 and 2025.
The Stellantis group invested about 1.
5 billion euros to acquire a 20 per cent stake in zero cars.
In addition, the Stellantis Group and Zero formed a joint venture called Zero International with a ratio of 51:49 to focus on exports.
In order to speed up the transformation of new energy, foreign investors also began to warm up.
In November, Mercedes-Benz (China) Investment Co., Ltd. and brilliance BMW announced the signing of a cooperation agreement to form a joint venture with a share ratio of 50:50 in China to operate a supercharging network in the Chinese market.
For automobile companies to stand out in more and more competition, GASI believes that it is necessary to have several elements: a strong compound team background, abundant financial support, capacity layout and intelligent independent R & D layout development path, to ensure that new players have established a relatively differentiated competitive advantage, and future breakthroughs depend on the construction of basic capacity building and core competitive elements.
In 2024, the industry will reshuffle and speed up, and the growth trend of China’s passenger car market will continue in 2024.
According to the Global Automotive Research Institute, combining macroeconomic, industrial policy and competition situation, China’s economy is expected to be more balanced in the “double cycle” market in 2024, and the “troika” momentum of investment, consumption and export trade will continue this year as a whole.
It predicts that China’s domestic passenger car market will maintain a growth rate of about 1.
8% in 2024, of which the export market and new energy vehicles represented by extended range and plug-in hybrid vehicles will continue to maintain rapid growth.
However, under the trend of increasingly fierce competition, the reshuffle of the automobile industry will be accelerated.
Among them, the price war “volume” has reached a new height of industrial competition.
As the vast majority of new energy vehicles are in a state of loss, enterprises with weak hematopoietic capacity and slow transformation will be the first to be out.
At present, the focus of the next round of industrial competition, whether independent brands (traditional independence or new power independence), or domestic intelligent industry ecology have certain advantages.
New energy vehicles and overseas exports will become the core drivers of market expansion.
China’s passenger car market is expected to exceed 27.
2 million in 2025 and 30.
4 million in 2030.
Among them, new energy vehicles will accelerate stock replacement.
In 2023, the new energy penetration rate will be close to 34%, with sales of 8.
97 million vehicles.
in 2025, the new energy penetration rate will exceed 49%, with sales of more than 13.
2 million vehicles.
and in 2030, the new energy penetration rate will exceed 72%, with sales of more than 22 million vehicles.
The overseas export market will become the second growth curve for domestic auto companies.
In 2023, the export market of domestic passenger cars exceeded 4.
14 million, and the export market of domestic passenger cars is expected to exceed 5.
8 million in 2025.
Chery, SAIC and BYD are all expected to maintain rapid growth.
However, Gaishi Automotive Research Institute predicts that the platform for the overseas export market of China’s domestic cars will be 8 million vehicles, and the deep localization operation of its own brands in overseas markets after 2027 will be an important strategy for development.
According to the development experience of Japanese automobile export, the domestic automobile market is still in the mode of complete vehicle trade export and KD, the overseas localization construction is in the initial stage of exploration, and the scale of China’s automobile localization export market will be in the expansion stage in the future.
At present, auto companies such as Chery, SAIC and BYD all plan to build factories overseas.
Chery’s Indonesian CKD plant has been put into production, and it also plans to build plants in Europe, Latin America and other markets.
SAIC already has four overseas bases, including India, Indonesia, Thailand and Pakistan, and actively promotes the site selection of European production bases, which may be completed and put into production from 2025 to 2026, and radiate the entire European market.
Geely does not have an external plant, but in Europe, it already has local production capacity through Volvo, and it also uses the capacity of its Malaysian Proton brand to produce Boyue, colorful and other models.
And with the self-branded carsWith the improvement of competitiveness, domestic consumers will be more inclined to buy independent brands and achieve overseas exports.
Gaishi Automobile expects the market share of domestic passenger car independent brands will reach 62% in 2024 and more than 70% in 2030.
However, sales growth of head car companies with pricing dominance is expected to become limited in 2024, as most car companies have taken out their magic weapon and want to compete for the stock market.
Gaishi Automobile Research Institute predicts that BYD and Tesla’s sales growth space will be challenged considering the intensification of domestic market competition and the squeeze of competing products.
It is expected that BYD and Tesla sales will remain at about 3.
4 million and 900,000 respectively in 2024.
Summary: On the whole, China’s passenger car market in 2023 will be rolled from the beginning to the end of the year, volume price, volume configuration, volume export, etc.
, and in 2024 the situation of this volume will continue,”the strong is strong, the weak is weak”situation will be more obvious.
The above content comes from the “2024 China Passenger Car Market Outlook”report, get a complete registration Welcome to scan code registration consultation, return to the first electric network home>.
