Finally, after another year of intense inward roll, China’s auto market continues to usher in new highs in 2024.
According to the forecasts of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the China Electric vehicle Association of 100 people, the passenger vehicle Association and other organizations, China’s car sales in 2024 will be about 3100-31.
3 million units, an increase of about 4% over the same period last year.
It will continue to maintain a similar low growth rate in 2025 and is expected to increase by 3% to 32 million vehicles compared with the same period last year.
According to the statistics of “car sales made in China”, there is no doubt that this figure will continue to set a new record this year and next year since it broke the 30 million mark in 2023.
However, if you exclude the explosive growth in export sales and simply count the domestic car market, it has not yet returned to the highest level in the history of 2017.
On the one hand the automobile industry should be proud of its achievements on the other hand it should also see that domestic automobile consumption has not yet returned to its peak and still need to pay attention to the quality of achievements and pursue long-term development rather than vicious competition.
The auto industry usually releases sales figures for a period of time about a week after the end of a period of time.
However, with the popularity of weekly and monthly data, it is no longer difficult to predict data that are close to “certainty” in advance.
Not long ago, the China Automobile Association predicted that total car sales in China would reach 31 million in 2024, up 3 percent from 30.
094 million in 2023.
On December 30th, the China Electric vehicle hundred people Association held a media communication meeting, and Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary-general, gave a finer forecast: based on 27.
94 million vehicles from January to November and 3.
7% year-on-year growth, total vehicle sales in 2024 are expected to be 31.
3 million, an increase of 4% year-on-year.
Will the auto industry in 2025 feel uncertain about its future because of the constant inward pressure? The car market forecast given by the electric car centenarian club for 2025 is generally steady, with annual sales of about 32 million vehicles, an increase of 3% over the same period last year.
From 30.
094 million in 2023 to 31.
3 million in 2024 to 32 million in 2025, the Chinese auto market has set new highs one after another.
But that doesn’t mean it’s all good news.
In the strict sense, the so-called “car market sales in China” is equal to “car sales made in China + cars exported by Chinese brands”.
Compared with the real “car sales in the Chinese market”, this figure adds an additional part, that is, car export sales (including exports of Chinese brands and domestic cars of foreign brands such as Tesla), and less, that is, car import sales.
In the real sense, the sales volume of the Chinese automobile market has not yet reached a new high.
The previous peak of domestic car sales occurred in 2017.
At that time, the sales of domestic cars (including exports and overseas-made local brands) was 28.
8789 million, taking into account the export of 891000 vehicles and imports of 1.
216 million vehicles, the actual total sales of new cars (including passenger and commercial vehicles) in the Chinese market in 2017 was 29.
2039 million, excluding imported cars was 27.
9879 million, a record that has not been broken so far.
So what is the level of domestic car sales from 2023 to 2025? In 2023, breaking out of the decline, the upward momentum actually came from exports that began to take off, while domestic car sales were 25.
184 million, compared with 27.
8979 million in 2017.
As imported car sales continue to decline, the total sales of imported cars will be even more different from those in 2017.
In 2024 and 2025, domestic car sales (excluding imported cars) are expected to be 25.
5 million and 26 million respectively, with year-on-year increases of only 1.
3% and 3% respectively, a slow increase compared with 2023 and still below the highest level in 2017.
According to the full-year passenger car retail forecast given by the passenger Union, the growth rate will be 6% this year, rising to 23 million vehicles from 21.
7 million in 2013.
The difference between the 23 million and the first 25.
5 million comes mainly from sales of commercial vehicles and other vehicles.
Although the market trend is much better than expected at the beginning of the year, although the market trend is much better than expected at the beginning of the year, the number in 2017 is 23.
7644 million, and there is still a gap of 760000 this year.
Judging from the pure automobile consumption in the domestic market it is gratifying that it is recovering but the good news is not entirely optimistic.
Without considering the stiffness of car prices and bicycle profits, the real domestic car sales alone are about 2 million vehicles less than in 2017, and it still takes time to catch up with the gap.
Cautious optimism is generally the right attitude.
For domestic automobile consumption, it is appropriate to remain calm and cautious, while for the transformation of the automobile industry-new energy / electrification and intelligence, we should have enough confidence in China’s automobile industry and market.
According to the forecast figures of the China Automobile Association, for the whole of 2024, passenger vehicle sales will be about 26.
8 million, an increase of 3.
1% over the same period last year.
commercial vehicle sales will be 4.
2 million, an increase of 5% over the same period last year.
and new energy vehicle sales will reach about 11.
5 million, an increase of 20% over the same period last year.
The penetration rate is 37.
1% (because of the large proportion of oil vehicles exported, the overall permeability is lower).
According to the forecast of EV 100, compared with 9.
494 million in 2023, sales of new energy vehicles in 2024 will reach about 13 million, an increase of 37% over the same period last year, and the penetration rate of domestic demand is 45%.
Optimistically, sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 16.
5 million (including exports) in 2025, with a growth rate of nearly 30 per cent and a permeability of 50 per cent, of which domestic demand is expected to reach 15 million and the permeability is expected to exceed 55 per cent.
In addition to the continued increase in the popularity of electric new energy vehicles cars are rapidly embracing intelligence.
According to the EV 100 press conference, the proportion of cars equipped with smart cockpits in 2021 has continued to rise, and is expected to reach 71% in 2024 and 75% in 2025.
It is generally believed in the industry that smart module is more practical than smart driving and is more easily accepted by low-line cities and conservative people, so the penetration rate of smart module is higher than that of smart driving.
But on the other hand the popularity of smart driving is faster than that of intelligence modules.
In 2020, the popularity of L2 and L2 + smart driving in passenger cars reached 15.
0%, while it more than doubled in 2022.
In the first half of 2024, the figure was 55.
7%, and it is expected to be as high as 65% in 2025.
The promotion of electrification and intelligent transformation of China’s automobile industry is actually being recognized around the world, which is why China’s automobile export sales surpassed Japan last year and ranked first in the world for the first time.
Reason.
, According to the forecast of the China Automobile Association, China’s automobile export sales will increase to about 5.
5 million units in 2024, 12% higher than the 4.
91 million units in 2023.
, while export sales from January to November provided by the Federation reached 5.
84 million.
Based on this figure, it is estimated that it may reach about 6.
4 million vehicles throughout the year.
The reason why the Automobile Association’s automobile export data is significantly higher than that of the China Automobile Association is explained by relevant parties, it is because it includes the export of some used cars and similar semitrailer tractors or chassis.
This is also why the China Automobile Association gave 4.
91 million vehicles and the Automobile Association gave 5.
22 million vehicles.
There is no doubt that for China’s automobile industry, 2024 and 2025 will continue to climb to new heights under the efforts and policy promotion of the entire industry.
However, at the same time, some figures in domestic automobile consumption have not yet returned to the highest moment in history.
While cheering confidently, we also need to be cautious.
while worrying about risks, we also need to boost morale.
Only by constantly positioning itself can China’s automobile industry continue to move forward on the road of long-term doctrine.
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