In recent years, under the general trend of low-carbon, many traditional automobile factories begin to compress or even stop the fuel vehicle business and transform to electrification.
BYD and Great Wall halted the fuel car business in 2022.
Audi announced that from 2026, new models launched for the global market will be fully switched to pure electric vehicles, and production of internal combustion engine models will be phased out in 2033.
According to the data of the first two weeks of April, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 50%, which has exceeded the share of fuel vehicles.
In 2020, China has set a target of more than 50% penetration of new energy vehicles by 2035.
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, June 6, 2024 China Automobile Chongqing Forum officially opened, in the brainstorm of “Oil car and Tram: replace or Co-exist” Cao Dongjie, General Manager of Mengshi Automotive Technology Company of Dongfeng Automobile Group Co., Ltd., Zou Daqing, President of Chinese Automotive Engineers Association of North America, Xu Huanping, Senior Vice President of sales and customer Development of Zaifu Group, Zhao Tong, Vice President of Commercial Market of Marelli China, Xu Wei, Vice President of sales and Application Engineering of Mahler Automotive Technology (China) Co., Ltd., discussed in depth in the new energy era.
As a witness to the development of the automobile industry for a hundred years, fuel vehicles still occupy an important position in the automobile market by virtue of their profound technology accumulation and extensive user base.
The question of whether oil cars and trams will replace or coexist is not only related to the future strategy of automobile manufacturers, but also has a profound impact on the choice of consumers and the travel mode of the whole society.
The general trend of new energy is unstoppable.
Data show that sales of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 2.
94 million in the first four months of this year, an increase of 32.
3 percent over the same period last year, much higher than the overall growth rate of 10.
2 percent in the automobile industry.
Cao Dongjie said that under the low-carbon trend, it is an irreversible trend for new energy to replace traditional fuel power, especially in the off-road vehicle market for high-emission fuel vehicles, no matter in terms of national policy or user demand.
Will gradually be replaced by new energy off-road.
Cao Dongjie further shows that off-road and traditional fuel off-road in the electric era are already the products of two times.
On the one hand, electric off-road can be stronger, faster and smarter, on the other hand, a large number of new technologies are applied, so that we can move towards a more extreme scene and create new experiences and values.
, Xu Huanping also pointed out that the overall situation of the new energy vehicle industry has been decided.
He said that the transformation of electrification and intelligence in China can actually be traced back to 2010, and the real strength was around 2015.
After nearly 10 years of development, the overall situation has basically been decided in the layout of new energy vehicles and the integrity of the industrial chain.
The technical route, including the technical direction of electric and hybrid, as well as the current completeness of the industrial chain, is basically mature.
The industry will certainly go in the direction of electrification, because the advantage of electrification is mainly driven by user value.
At present, newly developed cars, even traditional fuel-fueled cars, will be empowered by advanced electronic and electrical structures, and this direction will not change.
As for the form of energy supply, it will still be diversified, which can be driven by electricity or directly driven by fuel, which is mainly related to the use scenario, the current infrastructure, the perfection of the entire industry supply chain and cost.
Electrification will certainly develop in the direction of achieving greater user value. “.In recent years, the trading prices of major carbon emission systems in Europe have fallen sharply, and the carbon prices of the European Union have fallen in March and April.
Do we feel that the supply of electric cars now exceeds demand? Carbon emissions are no longer a hot topic?.
As far as Europe is concerned, Germany is actually encouraging Germany to offer a 10-year consumer tax cut for pure electric and hydrogen-fueled vehicles registered at the end of 2025.
Some people say that the process of electrification of American cars is slowing down and that it has imposed strong restrictions on China.
In fact, it is for the cultivation of the internal environment, not to stifle it, but to develop on the contrary.
” It will take time to fully replace, and today, China has become the world’s largest market for new energy vehicles.
Zhao Tong pointed out that the trend of global electrification must be full competition, not a complete replacement, nor a complete subversion, but more with the further development of traditional cars, there is a game process.
Xu Wei also pointed out that the global electrification trend will certainly continue to advance, and the proportion will increase, but it may reach a balance when it reaches a certain extent, and it will vary from region to region.
it should be considered comprehensively based on local resources, energy structure, technology level and cost.
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, “streetcar, oil car or hybrid, which is more popular with consumers? in fact, consumers’ preferences vary from region to region.
Chinese consumers are less conservative about technology iterations, and trams and hybrid models are not much more expensive than traditional fuel cars at home, so trams are more popular.
We don’t think electric cars will be accepted so quickly in other parts of the world, nor will they completely replace fuel vehicles.
” Xu Wei said.
There is no doubt that the electric car brings a good user experience, but there is still some controversy on the dual-carbon level.
In addition, the process of electrification will bring a lot of social pressure, such as charging facilities, the use of coal power, whether green energy can keep up, and there is also a lot of room for improvement in technology, including its safety, reliability and durability, battery recycling and so on.
During the brainstorming session, a number of participants reached a consensus that oil cars and trams coexist.
Zou Daqing pointed out that traditional cars do not have to be replaced in the process of development, such as heavy trucks and many large vehicles, they cannot be replaced, because the advantages of fuel vehicles in this area are very obvious.
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