Tesla FSD, who makes people “love and hate”, once again came the new news of entering China.
On April 28th, Tesla CEO Musk arrived in Beijing for his second visit to China in a year.
According to various reports and industry speculation, Musk’s visit to China is likely to discuss the entry of FSD into China, because just a week ago, Musk made it clear that Tesla FSD may enter China soon.
After that, Tesla reached a cooperation with Baidu Maps in China and adopted the national automobile data safety compliance requirements.
All these signs show that Tesla is paving the way for FSD to enter China.
Then, after Tesla entered China and disrupted the domestic new energy vehicle market, will FSD once again trigger the “catfish effect” if it successfully lands in China? Source: Musk Weibo, Tesla FSD entering China, starting the countdown, from speculation to official confirmation that Tesla FSD’s entry into China is a certainty.
According to Tesla’s APP content, Tesla’s official FSD service purchase page description in China has been changed from “to be launched later” to “to be launched soon”.
As Tesla’s high-level self-driving system closest to self-driving, but also an important support for the development of Robotaxi, FSD’s main functions include navigation-assisted driving NOA, automatic lane change, automatic parking, intelligent summoning, traffic signal recognition, urban road automatic steering, etc.
, has evolved to V12 version, and has realized user push in the United States and Canada.
In the United States, the one-time price of the FSD package is $8000, and the monthly subscription price is $99.
in Canada, it is C $11000, and if you subscribe monthly, it costs only C $99.
In the Chinese market, although FSD has not officially landed in China, officials have announced an one-off buyout price in China: 64000 yuan.
Combined with all kinds of recent information, it is obvious that Tesla is making the final preparations for FSD to enter China.
Source: China Automobile Association, on the evening of Musk’s arrival in Beijing, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the National computer Network Emergency Technology processing Coordination Center issued a “report on the testing of four Safety requirements for Automobile data processing (the first batch)”.
Tesla, as the only foreign-funded enterprise that meets the compliance requirements, is listed impressively.
The other five companies are BYD, ideal, Lutes, Hezhong New Energy and Weilai.
You know, data security has always been the biggest obstacle for FSD to enter China.
As we all know, data-driven is the only way for the evolution of high-level autopilot, which determines that Tesla must continuously collect all kinds of scene data if he wants to continue to evolve his intelligent driving ability in China.
“We believe that large-scale autopilot can only be achieved by using millions of vehicle data and massive AI training clusters.
” Tesla made it clear.
In this process, Tesla, as a foreign company, will face a series of data compliance problems.
It is precisely for this reason that although Tesla has frequently reported the news of FSD entry into China in the past few years, there has been no substantial progress.
In order to solve the problem of data security, Tesla also established a Shanghai data center in 2021 to carry out local data storage, so that all data generated from selling vehicles in the Chinese mainland market will be stored in China.
At the same time, Tesla also introduced a third-party authority to audit the company’s information security management system.
Today, with Tesla passing all four requirements for Chinese automobile data security-anonymous processing such as face information outside the car, not collecting cockpit data by default, handling in-car data, and handling significant personal information, it can be regarded as the biggest obstacle for Tesla FSD to enter China.
According to the latest news from Tesla China, at present, various localities have gradually lifted the traffic ban and parking restrictions on Tesla and other intelligent Internet vehicles.
It is also understood that Tesla is currently setting up a local operation team of about 20 people in China to promote the landing of FSD in the Chinese market, and is preparing to set up a data tagging team of hundreds of people in China to provide manual labeling samples for training FSD algorithms.
Photo source: Baidu, in fact, in addition to passing data security-related tests, on the eve of the Beijing Auto Show, Tesla also reached a cooperation with Baidu Maps to navigate the world’s first Baidu Maps.
At the same time, the partnership will also allow Tesla to use advanced driving assistance maps provided by Baidu for use in China’s version of FSD, according to people familiar with the matter.
If this news is true, it will undoubtedly provide another key boost for FSD to enter China.
According to the evolution logic of Tesla’s intelligent driving system, due to the application of neural network model, a large amount of road information needs to be collected for model training.
According to the relevant domestic requirements, car companies or smart driving companies to carry out this kind of data collection, must obtain the corresponding surveying and mapping qualification, obviously Tesla does not have this condition at present.
But if you “bind” qualified Baidu, this problem will be easily solved.
On April 30th, Baidu Apollo announced that Baidu Maps will fully open up cooperative lane-level map data (referred to as “LD light map”) to the advanced auxiliary driving industry from May 1, 2024.
It is reported that at present, Baidu map LD light map has covered 360 prefecture-level cities, 3.
6 million kilometers of highways and urban roads, and completed the advanced auxiliary driving verification and self-driving verification of relevant car companies.
In this way, the above rumors may not be groundless.
Next, let’s see when the “boot” of Tesla FSD came to the ground.
FSD enters China, does the “catfish effect” rise again? On December 30th, 2019, the first batch of domestic Tesla Model 3 was delivered in its Shanghai super factory, marking the official start of Tesla’s journey of localization.
After that, with the advantages of strong R & D capability, vertical integration of industrial chain and efficient production and operation, Tesla soon established a “leader” position in China’s new energy vehicle market, and injected a strong driving force for the development of China’s new energy vehicle industry.
In the past few years, Tesla has not only driven the rise of a number of local car-making new forces in China, and accelerated the transformation of traditional car companies, but also given domestic suppliers a historic opportunity to “change lanes and overtake.
” it has strongly promoted the transformation and upgrading of China’s automobile industry.
It can be said that in the first half of the industrial reform dominated by electrification, Tesla’s competitiveness and influence are obvious to all.
So as the industry reform enters the second half with intelligence as the core, will Tesla FSD’s entry into China trigger a new round of “catfish effect” in the domestic smart driving track? In this regard, analysts at the Global Automotive Research Institute believe thatThe answer is yes.
In the past period of time, the competition in the domestic high-level intelligent driving field is becoming increasingly fierce, which is the most direct proof.
Focusing on complex scenarios such as highways and urban roads, local enterprises have launched a new round of intelligent driving technology arms race since last year, and made initial progress.
According to the configuration data of Geshi Automotive Research Institute, the cumulative carrying capacity of domestic NOA function has reached 945000 in 2023, of which the carrying capacity of high-speed NOA and urban NOA is 707000 and 238000 respectively.
It is estimated that this matching scale will exceed 1.
8 million in 2024 and 3 million in 2025.
It is not difficult to foresee that with the approaching of Tesla FSD, it will further accelerate the landing process of high-level smart cars in China.
In particular, the new “end-to-end” algorithm paradigm led by Tesla FSD, through the innovation of model architecture, has been widely regarded as the only way for the continuous evolution of autopilot, and is expected to lead intelligent driving to usher in a “qualitative change” from “quantitative change”.
In the past, the development of intelligent driving system usually took perception, decision-making and regulation as independent modules, and each module had independent algorithms to cooperate to complete the intelligent driving task.
The most obvious disadvantage of this architecture is that because of the many levels of information flow and the long transmission link, it is easy to cause information loss, and then affect the final regulation and control results.
In comparison, because the end-to-end scheme uses a large neural network model to fully cover the intelligent driving perception, decision-making and regulation control module, the perceptual data can be processed by the neural network, and the regulation control signal can be output directly, which can better realize the lossless transmission of information and optimize the performance of the intelligent driving system.
As early as early 2023, Musk revealed that Tesla had started the development of an end-to-end autopilot program.
Last August, Musk conducted a live broadcast on the social platform about Tesla’s end-to-end self-driving test version (FSD V12 Beta), which showed a highly humanoid driving effect.
Using FSD Beta’s cumulative mileage (as of April 21, 2024), after several months of iteration, Tesla officially launched FSD V12.3.1 to North American car owners in March this year, introducing end-to-end neural network technology to conduct in-depth learning of the driving data of more than one million Tesla vehicles, realizing that it no longer depends on the traditional rule code, but on the neural network and data-driven algorithm iteration new paradigm.
According to statistics, by the first quarter of 2024, the total mileage of Tesla FSD fully autopilot has reached 1.
25 billion miles (about 2 billion km).
Especially after the introduction of Tesla end-to-end neural network, Tesla FSD is evolving to be more humanoid and smarter.
“this will be a ‘game-changing technology’,” Tesla said.
Under the guidance of Tesla, over the past period of time, many self-driving technology companies have been promoting the research and development of end-to-end self-driving systems.
During this year’s Beijing Auto Show, companies including Huawei, Yuanrong Qixing, Shangtang Jueyu, Light Boat Zhihang, and Yihang Intelligence have demonstrated or demonstrated their end-to-end ideas.
In this regard, the above analysts of the Gaishi Automotive Research Institute believe that compared with domestic enterprises, Tesla has more advantages in the field of algorithms, while domestic enterprises have more advantages in the field of hardware.
If Tesla enters China with FSD in the future, it is expected to further accelerate the landing of end-to-end technology by domestic enterprises and stimulate the development of domestic smart driving field.
A few days ago, when asked about Tesla FSD’s entry into China, Xiaopeng Chairman he Xiaopeng also said that the vigorous development of large models in the past two years has significantly accelerated the technology and experience of high-level self-driving and self-driving.
“combined with our own progress, I think the large model will accelerate the landing speed of self-driving for at least three years, and fully autopilot is also one of the best business scenarios for the landing of large models.
” He Xiaopeng said.
It is worth noting that in addition to leading the new iterative paradigm of high-level intelligent driving algorithm end-to-end, the pure vision route that Tesla has always adhered to has also begun to have more “followers” in China, such as Guangzhou Automobile, Baidu Apollo, Shangtang Shadow, DJI vehicle, Wenyuan Zhixing, intelligence robot and so on.
However, although Tesla’s technological advantages are obvious to all, a fact that cannot be ignored is that the current domestic price of 64000 yuan for FSD is undoubtedly on the high side.
For comparison, the original price of Huawei ADS high-end smart car bag is 36000 yuan, and the original price of Teng Teng N7 high-level smart drive package is 15000 yuan, but there is actually a certain discount space behind this.
This means that if the price of FSD remains unchanged in the future, it will greatly weaken its overall competitiveness.
At present, the performance of NOA in cities is similar.
If Tesla sells so much, consumers may not pay the bill, so I think there is no doubt about the price reduction of FSD.
In particular, the domestic will continue to roll the city NOA standard configuration and price war, Tesla FSD even if not take the initiative to reduce the price, will be domestic manufacturers to beat the price, this is a major trend.
” The analyst said.
In the end, the “lethality” of FSD to the domestic smart driving track will directly depend on the sincerity of Tesla’s price reduction.
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